Author Topic: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold  (Read 671847 times)

G M

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Re: Rattner
« Reply #1950 on: April 14, 2022, 05:49:12 AM »
Who could have foreseen that decades of irresponsible spending would have negative results?


https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/04/13/fmr-obama-treasury-counselor-rattner-its-time-to-start-dealing-with-the-deficit-to-fight-inflation/

[me] what about all the deficit spending under Obama ?

[me] Trump too.?

Rattner: Biden is "partly to blame " "a bit "   :roll:

G M

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Re: Rattner
« Reply #1951 on: April 14, 2022, 06:05:35 AM »



ya

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We need the $ to pull back and up goes BTC. These days BTC also correlates to SP500.

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Arguments not to be ignored, but not that simple.

As recently noted by Scott Grannis debt service as a % of GDP is very low.

As I recently noted, inflation is more than 7% above 30 year treasury rates, thus reducing the real burden of the $30T debt more than $2T a year.


DougMacG

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Arguments not to be ignored, but not that simple.

As recently noted by Scott Grannis debt service as a % of GDP is very low.

As I recently noted, inflation is more than 7% above 30 year treasury rates, thus reducing the real burden of the $30T debt more than $2T a year.

I disagree with data points in the article but add this:

Interest costs on existing debt are going up.
https://www.pgpf.org/analysis/2022/03/higher-interest-rates-will-raise-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt

Inflation effect on debt (7%) will go up even more but is unsustainable.

If either or other economic malpractice factors cause GDP to collapse, the affordability of debt is gone.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2022, 04:42:50 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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how does this factor in ?
« Reply #1959 on: April 18, 2022, 08:25:23 AM »

DougMacG

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Re: how does this factor in ?
« Reply #1960 on: April 18, 2022, 11:22:58 AM »
https://www.statista.com/chart/19635/wealth-distribution-percentiles-in-the-us/

most of GDP is owned by top 10%

"The top 1 percent held about half of that wealth – 32.1 percent, while the next 9 percent held approximately another half at 37.7"

I would quibble with that. First, wealth (assets) is not GDP. GDP is everybody's income, national income. A lot of people make a lot of money without accumulating major assets, by choice or otherwise.
 
Wealth measurements typically exclude the largest store of wealth for most people, the value of their home.

Income inequality data is also notoriously inaccurate and deceptive.  For one thing, the groups we call the top 1% and the top 10% change dramatically from year to year and from decade to decade. It's not the same people earning the big incomes or holding the big wealth.

With the exception of unproductive assets like gold and Bitcoin, the rich either spend their money meaning give it to other people, or invest it meaning employ people in the lower 90%. They mostly don't "hold" it.

To the extent that they are holding unproductive assets, it's largely because of the goddamn capital gains taxes on inflationary non-gains that they can't efficiently turn ownership of those assets over to other people who could make better use of them.

Jack Kemp used to say about rich people, we need more of them.

What is the amount of money or wealth that can comfortably take care of all your future expenses and loved ones and how do we get more and more people past that level? That is the question IMHO

Look at it the other way around. If we could remove the top 1% or the top 10% from the economy, if we could remove the people and remove all that invested capital, are the rest of us better off? Are they holding wealth that would otherwise be ours? The answer is no.

 The world is full of countries that don't have the freedom to earn, keep, accumulate and pass on wealth and the lower 99% are measurably not better off.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2022, 11:38:42 AM by DougMacG »

G M

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Thralldom and Its Uses
« Reply #1961 on: April 18, 2022, 06:50:33 PM »
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/thralldom-and-its-uses/

Thralldom and Its Uses
America has had enough of being in thrall, especially to figures and forces dedicated to our destruction….
Clusterfuck Nation


Spring is always convulsive, with new things heaving into life. Under every dead leaf, something stirs and seeks light, the old must make way for the new, and to some degree the earth is not quite the same place as it was the last time it turned, though the scene looks superficially familiar. Winter’s torpor is, at least, a cold comfort, but springtime’s warmth and movement rattle the nerves. Things unseen shift ominously beneath us. Everything is pending and tending, and nothing is resolved.

Having wrecked its latest business model —hypertrophic financial fakery — Western Civ stumbles into the blinding new reality that it takes real stuff to run an economy, and that money itself is not an adequate replacement for the stuff. The trillions supposedly vested, for instance, in stock market valuations mostly represent mere wishes and promises, and for what? Why, for more money — which responds by losing value, so that we’re racing ever faster toward a receding horizon.

The net result: a world with less available stuff and plenty of money that’s increasingly worthless in pursuit of stuff. It isn’t long before people recognize the disutility of both conditions. The idea that we can fix this problem with central bank digital money is hilarious. When faced with less available stuff, resorting to “money” ever more abstracted from any relation to stuff only puts you in thrall to more empty wishes and promises when this is exactly the moment to be less in thrall and more in touch.

America has had enough of being in thrall, especially to figures and forces dedicated to our destruction. This spring is the beginning of a national life with less stuff, including, looks like, stuff to eat. That will sure enough put folks in touch with something real, and then they will naturally have to do something about it. Centralized control of the population via trackable digital money is the last thing that will avail in the face of hunger and desperation. In fact, that is just another set of empty wishes and promises.

The reality is that centralized government, such as the one in Washington DC, is less and less in control of anything — except the manufactured pretense that it can fix the problems of less stuff and decaying money. The federal government is increasingly impotent, unable to discharge its basic obligations to preserve public order and safety. Its previous attempt to fix something was the response to Covid-19, which has culminated in the fiasco of the mRNA vaccines, now pending and tending toward an astounding wave of early deaths among those in thrall to the transparently dishonest promises of officialdom (“safe and effective”).

That’s the trouble with thrall. It narrows the field-of-vision so badly, you can’t see what’s coming at you indirectly, like: hardship and death. The country has been in serious trouble for more than a decade. Cavalcades of bad choices — and then lying to ourselves about these bad choices — has shoved us well over the edge of our cherished expectations. One way out, then, is to simply refuse to remain in thrall to officialdom and the manufactured bullshit that is its only product.

We are lately in thrall to the melodrama in Ukraine, largely engineered by figures and forces in our own government and for their own ends, which look suspiciously at odds with the nation’s actual interests (the nation being us, its people). Perhaps this illustrates the widening gulf between the slouching beast government has become and the people trying to operate their lives and destinies under it. No food for you, no fertilizers for future food for you, no spare parts for you, no free speech for you, no social or economic role for you, no health for you, and (watch it, now!) soon no life for you.

Collectively going crazy has been a luxury we can’t afford anymore. You fell for RussiaGate and it kept you in thrall for years. You fell for the Adam Schiff orchestrated Ukraine phone call impeachment gambit. You fell for the Covid scare and the dangerously defective vaccines forced on you. You fell for the fraud-drenched election of the empty vessel known as “Joe Biden.” Don’t fall for the invitation to World War Three.

Russia means business in its historic sphere of influence. It’s none of our business, and we’re only making it worse for the Ukrainian people by pretending it’s our business with the false promise of our support. The only thing that matters to us about Ukraine just now is that we’re standing in the way of useful negotiations to end the conflict there and egging on various other countries in Europe to aggravate the situation.

It’s been a fine distraction from everything else that is slipping away in our own country, including the loss of liberty, the right to a livelihood, the need for legitimate meaning, the value of our money, our respect for the law, the ability to speak our minds, and our duties and obligations to each other. Our government is not interested in supporting any of that, and we might doubt that it even could anymore if it wanted to. It only wants to keep you in a state of abject thrall while it fritters away our posterity.


Crafty_Dog

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G M

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Re: Chinese courtship of Saudis threatens dollar
« Reply #1964 on: April 20, 2022, 07:34:55 AM »
If Biden (His shadow cabal pulling the strings) was actually working for the PRC, what would he be doing differently?


https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18450/saudi-arabia-china-dollar-yuan


ccp

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I wonder how many of the libs
are going to like

all the policies to "protect our planet"

once they see their portfolios and home values crash

even more.....

I am not enjoying it and don't have a sense of acceptance of this unnecessary crash
for "the greater good "

I suspect once mortgage rates keep increasing the housing boom will end .....

but of course, I am not Paul Krugman.....so what do I know?

DougMacG

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ccp  "I wonder how many of the libs
are going to like
all the policies to "protect our planet"
once they see their portfolios and home values crash
even more.....
"

Yes, the real world is persuasive over time.

Many Dems think economic results are random, not connected to policies.  First level thinking, they believe or pretend to believe there is a free lunch.  You can do all these fine sounding things like free phone, free healthcare, free homes, free transportation, debt forgiveness, checks to everyone, deficits in the trillions, debt to 30 trillion, interest rates doubling, inflation to double digits, anything you want, without a single negative consequence?

And then THIS happens.


"I suspect once mortgage rates keep increasing the housing boom will end ....."

'The housing boom will end.'     - Like clockwork.

With interest rates more than doubling, lumber more tripling, electricity and gas doubling, property taxes doubling, just to stay even, real wages would have to soar.  Instead real wages are shrinking because explicit, definitional inflationary polices. 

All of this unnecessary, caused by wrong-headed policies.



ya

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CAR (Central African Republic) adopts BTC as currency. El Salv was first. Slowly then suddenly...

ccp

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everything worse
« Reply #1969 on: April 28, 2022, 07:42:07 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gdp-gross-domestic-product-economic-activity-190926750.html

lets see:

due to corona
due to Ukraine
due to Trump tax cuts
due to gridlock from Republicans and that evil spoiler Joe Manchin

or temporary
or needed to save the Earth
or to save civilization
or to save democracy
of for the children
or due to income inequity
or to fight back all the evil white men and what they did to the world (racism)
or to prove we need more centralized government control

did I miss any other lame BS excuse





ya

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This man is the saviour of some.



Crafty_Dog

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The world retains its ability to surprise , , ,

ya

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ETH fees, below.  BTC is a few cents.


ya

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I have not purchased ETH in years...but folks are talking about thousands in fees...





DougMacG

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Re: ETH, Blockchain technology
« Reply #1982 on: May 05, 2022, 06:12:02 AM »

ya

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BTC is not yet in the clear, but a trend of higher lows. It would help if the US $ pulls back, but that may not happen if the Fed continues tightening for a few more times.


ya

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Interesting piece by Martin Armstrong. We really need to think what is the end game...how much debt can the US and EU tolerate.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-fed-the-collapse-of-socialism/

ccp

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well according to Grannis
debt is only 2% of GDP

thus no biggie..


so what it the problem?

and according to Krugman the world is "awash" in cash

so really the debt is trivial

according to Paul and Scott


DougMacG

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quote author=ccp
well according to Grannis
debt is only 2% of GDP

(Doug). Debt service, meaning interest on the debt, at roughly 0%, currently and recently looking backward, is (was) 2% of GDP.

Looking forward, interest rates are 10% (latest I-Bond 9.6%) and escalating rapidly.

Now what is the cost to service the debt (pay interest only) going forward, $30 trillion  x 10% = $3 trillion = almost what should be the entire federal budget.

And what if both the debt and the interest rates go up further, as both are trending to do, what then?

We can't pretend it's play money any longer. The day of reckoning is here.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2022, 10:07:19 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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"And what if both the debt and the interest rates go up further, as both are trending to do, what then?"

then as Larry Kudlow said on Laura last night :

the worst possible outcome -> inflation and contracting economy
  or stagflation
  bringing back the James Earl Carter days

But even Carter was not purposely doing this and destroying our country every way Biden is doing

Biden is clearly worse  :-(

since he is purposely doing this with his "administration"
there is no question he is the worst President in history

of course he will be rated above trump by "historians"


DougMacG

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ccp, As you say, Biden* is worse because much of this is intentional.

*  Biden, meaning the whole ruling cabal.

"the worst possible outcome -> inflation and contracting economy or stagflation bringing back the James Earl Carter days."

   - I hate to say it, but that is the expected outcome, the path we are on. The worst possible outcome is way scarier than that.  I don't even want to put words to it.  Think hyper-inflation Venez-Chavez-zuela, people broke, starving, eating zoo animals when that was the last protein left.  That can't happen here?  When we emulate everything they did to bring that on?

It could be worse here because the US economy tanking could bring down the whole world.

We are pouring gasoline around and playing with fire.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2022, 01:17:59 PM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Doug corrected me:

Debt service or the interest on the debt is 2% of GDP

You're right that is more accurate what he said and is big difference.

thank you
for clarifying
« Last Edit: May 06, 2022, 02:02:49 PM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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Regarding YA's post from Armstrong Economics:

The author sort of dials in on something that has been bothering me and that is the failure to distinguish price increases from excessive increase in money supply (inflation) and prices increases from decrease in supply of goods & services.

Thus, when he says:

"This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. (Marc:  Correct to identify a decrease in supply of goods & services but unsound in my opinion to call this "inflation".  Rather it is a PRICE INCREASE) China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. (Marc:  Sorry, but I find this silly) When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.  (Marc:  This is quite correct-- and is something many do not get, possibly leading to flawed analyses)




ccp

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I wonder

why is the LEFT letting the economy go down?

it is plainly obvious about gas
open borders their intent

but what do they have in store for us after the economy continues to crash?

they are doing this on purpose for some reason

never let a crises go to waste....

they are planning some sort of re set...


not clear what though.

any theories , ideas ?

G M

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8 point plan for Socialism
The Cloward-Piven 8 point plan to implement Socialism

1) Healthcare– Control healthcare and you control the people

2) Poverty – Increase the Poverty level as high as possible, poor people are easier to control and will not fight back if you are providing everything for them to live.

3) Debt – Increase the debt to an unsustainable level. That way you are able to increase taxes, and this will produce more poverty.

4) Gun Control– Remove the ability to defend themselves from the Government. That way you are able to create a police state.

5) Welfare – Take control of every aspect of their lives (Food, Housing, and Income)

6) Education – Take control of what people read and listen to – take control of what children learn in school.

7) Religion – Remove the belief in the God from the Government and schools

8) Class Warfare – Divide the people into the wealthy and the poor. This will cause more discontent and it will be easier to take (Tax) the wealthy with the support of the poor.


I wonder

why is the LEFT letting the economy go down?

it is plainly obvious about gas
open borders their intent

but what do they have in store for us after the economy continues to crash?

they are doing this on purpose for some reason

never let a crises go to waste....

they are planning some sort of re set...


not clear what though.

any theories , ideas ?

ya

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ya

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Soon


Crafty_Dog

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ya

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What happens after bear markets is that BTC comes back, but many of the 8000 altcoins never come back. Every year the top 20 coins change, but BTC remains on top.

Crafty_Dog

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YA: 

Of the money I have allocated to this space I am about 9:1 for BTC:ETH. 

Observations?

ya

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ETH will remain #2 for the present. It may even pump more % than BTC. Previous years top coins like BCH, BSV, LTC are floundering.

ya

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With some luck the bottom is in, around 30 K for BTC.