US-China (& Japan, South China Sea-- Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc)

[DougMacG]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Biden-sends-former-top-defense-officials-to-Taiwan

[Crafty_Dog]

Good.

[DougMacG]

Famous people caught reading the fire hydrant of freedom:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-should-abandon-ambiguity-on-Taiwan-defense-Japan-s-Abe

[Crafty_Dog]

Taiwan’s leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next

Listen to article
6 min
By Lily Kuo, Vic Chiang and Pei-Lin Wu
Today at 8:24 a.m. EST

Ukrainians and Taiwanese people pray for the end of the war in Ukraine at a temple in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 3. (Ann Wang/Reuters)



406
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwanese officials have been working hard to discourage a catchphrase that has emerged over the last week, “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan.”

Since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the slogan has been repeated in local headlines, discussed in panels and uttered by jittery citizens worried that the war will embolden their similarly powerful and aggressive neighbor China, which claims Taiwan should be under its rule.

In Taiwan, where residents have for years been numb to Beijing’s threats and intimidation — including daily incursions into their air defense identification zone, military exercises simulating attacks on the island and cyberattacks — there is a growing realization that the status quo may no longer hold.

Analysis: The fallacy that links Putin’s attack on Ukraine with Xi’s ambitions on Taiwan

“I believe that today’s Ukraine is tomorrow’s Taiwan,” said Lung Wei-chen, a 69-year-old retired soldier from the southern city of Kaohsiung. “Other countries including the United States are not reliable, and we only have ourselves to defend Taiwan.”

To Lung, the similarities between the two global flash points are unsettling. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, China’s ruling Communist Party has for decades said the self-governed democracy is an “inalienable” part of its history and sovereign territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping, the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, has repeatedly reserved the right to use force to “reunite” Taiwan with mainland China.

But government officials and researchers focused on cross-strait tensions say the similarities stop there. They stress differences such as the 100-mile sea barrier between Taiwan and China, Taiwan’s key role in global supply chains and the fact that it is surrounded by U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan.

Since the Chinese Communist Party’s 1949 victory over the Nationalists, sending them fleeing to Taiwan, residents have lived through periods of shelling, warming ties and bellicose rhetoric — always under the assumption that Beijing would not risk entangling itself in all-out-war to take over the island.


Now, although few residents believe an attack from China is imminent, watching the destruction of Ukrainian cities has made that possibility seem much more real.

“I used to think that it’s not possible for China to attack Taiwan. Now I fear that if Russia is able to win the war, the chances of China using force against Taiwan will rise,” said Marvyn Hsu, a 26-year-old finance researcher in Taipei.

Scholars have called for revising Taiwan’s military doctrine, which maintains that it will never strike first. Groups have started organizing civilian defense training courses, free first-aid sessions and talks on how regular citizens can prepare for war.

The Kuma Academy, an education research center hosting a two-day crash course on traditional and cyberwarfare and modern military science, described the Ukraine attack as a reminder that “we cannot relax, and in peacetime we must prepare for the worst.”

Officials have tried to tamp down alarm, worried not just about fearmongering but also the possibility that pro-China forces will use public alarm to push for better ties with Beijing to avoid Ukraine’s fate.


Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen wears a “Stand with Ukraine” mask in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 2. (Handout/Via Reuters)
The day after the invasion began, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen described the situation Taiwan faces as “fundamentally different” while Cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng said it was “inappropriate” and “demoralizing” to claim that Taiwan would be next.


A senior official working on national security said the Ukraine crisis did not change the government’s assessment of the menace from Beijing, while admitting that it had added a sense of urgency.

“From the Ukraine crisis, there is a lot we must do, but these are things we were doing before. Maybe we should do more and do it faster,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. He cited in particular reforming Taiwan’s reservist system and buying more weapons from the United States.

With beer, rum and chocolate, Taiwan rallies behind Lithuania in spat with China

On Wednesday, the military doubled the length of its now annual mandatory refresher course for Taiwanese men for those selected by lottery. Last month, legislators approved an extra $8.6 billion to the $13 billion annual defense budget.

Some argue that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its second week, has driven home how difficult an invasion of Taiwan would be. China would need to launch what would be history’s largest amphibious attack, and the chance of a U.S. intervention would be high.


“Beijing is taking note of the speed and strength of the international response,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution. “It is becoming more difficult for anyone inside China to argue that Beijing could subdue Taiwan quickly and without high costs.”

At a panel Thursday on the implications of the Ukraine crisis for Taiwan, Kuo Yu-jen of National Sun Yat-sen University said the war “has united Europe and made Taiwan more secure than ever.”

Ukraine’s experience is further proof that Taiwan should revise its methods, he added, so that it can respond to China’s increased use of “gray zone warfare” aimed at wearing down one’s opponent through intimidation and economic pressure.

“Russian troops had been gathering on the border since March last year, which is already a threat. Ukraine still waited for [the attack] to happen,” he said, comparing the situation with the frequent incursions of Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s air identification zone.

Green sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid game

On Monday, former U.S. defense and security officials led by Mike Mullen, who served as chairman of the joint chiefs, landed in Taiwan for two days of meetings with Tsai, Taiwan’s minister of defense Chiu Kuo-cheng and other top officials in what the Taiwan president’s office described as a show of the “rock solid” U.S.-Taiwan ties.

Residents in Taiwan watching the overwhelming international response to the crisis wonder whether an attack on their homeland would incur the same level of sympathy. Taiwan is not recognized by the United Nations or a member of the World Health Organization and other international bodies because of intense lobbying by Beijing.


A staff member from the Russian representative office receives a protest sign during a March 1 protest in Taipei over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images)
“I think the reason why both Europe and the United States sympathize with Ukraine is because they are similar in terms of ethnicity and culture, but for Taiwan, we don’t even have the opportunity to show our faces in the United Nations,” said Ian Cheng, 28, a developer in Taipei. “It’ll be difficult for the West to feel connected with us.”


In Taipei, groups of protesters gather outside of the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission, Russia’s de facto embassy in Taiwan. Many say they are here to support Ukraine and that their own geopolitical flash point is a secondary priority. Others say that while the threat from China does not seem imminent, they will not shy away when the time comes.

“Although I might not be able to fight at the front lines, I can still help build molotov cocktails, just like the Ukrainian women,” said Huang Shu-chen, 52, who sells medical instruments in Taipei. “Taiwan is our home. We need to protect it.”

[G M]

Taiwan better change their gun laws TODAY and start training their people. Hell, I would even be willing to fly over to help.

Taiwan’s leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next

Listen to article
6 min
By Lily Kuo, Vic Chiang and Pei-Lin Wu
Today at 8:24 a.m. EST

Ukrainians and Taiwanese people pray for the end of the war in Ukraine at a temple in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 3. (Ann Wang/Reuters)



406
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwanese officials have been working hard to discourage a catchphrase that has emerged over the last week, “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan.”

Since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the slogan has been repeated in local headlines, discussed in panels and uttered by jittery citizens worried that the war will embolden their similarly powerful and aggressive neighbor China, which claims Taiwan should be under its rule.

In Taiwan, where residents have for years been numb to Beijing’s threats and intimidation — including daily incursions into their air defense identification zone, military exercises simulating attacks on the island and cyberattacks — there is a growing realization that the status quo may no longer hold.

Analysis: The fallacy that links Putin’s attack on Ukraine with Xi’s ambitions on Taiwan

“I believe that today’s Ukraine is tomorrow’s Taiwan,” said Lung Wei-chen, a 69-year-old retired soldier from the southern city of Kaohsiung. “Other countries including the United States are not reliable, and we only have ourselves to defend Taiwan.”

To Lung, the similarities between the two global flash points are unsettling. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, China’s ruling Communist Party has for decades said the self-governed democracy is an “inalienable” part of its history and sovereign territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping, the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, has repeatedly reserved the right to use force to “reunite” Taiwan with mainland China.

But government officials and researchers focused on cross-strait tensions say the similarities stop there. They stress differences such as the 100-mile sea barrier between Taiwan and China, Taiwan’s key role in global supply chains and the fact that it is surrounded by U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan.

Since the Chinese Communist Party’s 1949 victory over the Nationalists, sending them fleeing to Taiwan, residents have lived through periods of shelling, warming ties and bellicose rhetoric — always under the assumption that Beijing would not risk entangling itself in all-out-war to take over the island.


Now, although few residents believe an attack from China is imminent, watching the destruction of Ukrainian cities has made that possibility seem much more real.

“I used to think that it’s not possible for China to attack Taiwan. Now I fear that if Russia is able to win the war, the chances of China using force against Taiwan will rise,” said Marvyn Hsu, a 26-year-old finance researcher in Taipei.

Scholars have called for revising Taiwan’s military doctrine, which maintains that it will never strike first. Groups have started organizing civilian defense training courses, free first-aid sessions and talks on how regular citizens can prepare for war.

The Kuma Academy, an education research center hosting a two-day crash course on traditional and cyberwarfare and modern military science, described the Ukraine attack as a reminder that “we cannot relax, and in peacetime we must prepare for the worst.”

Officials have tried to tamp down alarm, worried not just about fearmongering but also the possibility that pro-China forces will use public alarm to push for better ties with Beijing to avoid Ukraine’s fate.


Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen wears a “Stand with Ukraine” mask in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 2. (Handout/Via Reuters)
The day after the invasion began, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen described the situation Taiwan faces as “fundamentally different” while Cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng said it was “inappropriate” and “demoralizing” to claim that Taiwan would be next.


A senior official working on national security said the Ukraine crisis did not change the government’s assessment of the menace from Beijing, while admitting that it had added a sense of urgency.

“From the Ukraine crisis, there is a lot we must do, but these are things we were doing before. Maybe we should do more and do it faster,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. He cited in particular reforming Taiwan’s reservist system and buying more weapons from the United States.

With beer, rum and chocolate, Taiwan rallies behind Lithuania in spat with China

On Wednesday, the military doubled the length of its now annual mandatory refresher course for Taiwanese men for those selected by lottery. Last month, legislators approved an extra $8.6 billion to the $13 billion annual defense budget.

Some argue that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now entering its second week, has driven home how difficult an invasion of Taiwan would be. China would need to launch what would be history’s largest amphibious attack, and the chance of a U.S. intervention would be high.


“Beijing is taking note of the speed and strength of the international response,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution. “It is becoming more difficult for anyone inside China to argue that Beijing could subdue Taiwan quickly and without high costs.”

At a panel Thursday on the implications of the Ukraine crisis for Taiwan, Kuo Yu-jen of National Sun Yat-sen University said the war “has united Europe and made Taiwan more secure than ever.”

Ukraine’s experience is further proof that Taiwan should revise its methods, he added, so that it can respond to China’s increased use of “gray zone warfare” aimed at wearing down one’s opponent through intimidation and economic pressure.

“Russian troops had been gathering on the border since March last year, which is already a threat. Ukraine still waited for [the attack] to happen,” he said, comparing the situation with the frequent incursions of Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s air identification zone.

Green sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid game

On Monday, former U.S. defense and security officials led by Mike Mullen, who served as chairman of the joint chiefs, landed in Taiwan for two days of meetings with Tsai, Taiwan’s minister of defense Chiu Kuo-cheng and other top officials in what the Taiwan president’s office described as a show of the “rock solid” U.S.-Taiwan ties.

Residents in Taiwan watching the overwhelming international response to the crisis wonder whether an attack on their homeland would incur the same level of sympathy. Taiwan is not recognized by the United Nations or a member of the World Health Organization and other international bodies because of intense lobbying by Beijing.


A staff member from the Russian representative office receives a protest sign during a March 1 protest in Taipei over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images)
“I think the reason why both Europe and the United States sympathize with Ukraine is because they are similar in terms of ethnicity and culture, but for Taiwan, we don’t even have the opportunity to show our faces in the United Nations,” said Ian Cheng, 28, a developer in Taipei. “It’ll be difficult for the West to feel connected with us.”


In Taipei, groups of protesters gather outside of the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission, Russia’s de facto embassy in Taiwan. Many say they are here to support Ukraine and that their own geopolitical flash point is a secondary priority. Others say that while the threat from China does not seem imminent, they will not shy away when the time comes.

“Although I might not be able to fight at the front lines, I can still help build molotov cocktails, just like the Ukrainian women,” said Huang Shu-chen, 52, who sells medical instruments in Taipei. “Taiwan is our home. We need to protect it.”

[ccp]

".Taiwan better change their gun laws TODAY and start training their people. Hell, I would even be willing to fly over to help."

well it Taiwan seems more important to us the Ukraine

however, we need GM here

[G M]

".Taiwan better change their gun laws TODAY and start training their people. Hell, I would even be willing to fly over to help."

well it Taiwan seems more important to us the Ukraine

however, we need GM here

I’m no one of any importance, frankly I don’t expect to live through the upcoming festivities. I just want to be sure that I am the biggest pain possible to our enemies, both foreign and domestic.

[Crafty_Dog]

STRENGTH AND HONOR!  GOD BLESS AMERICA AND OUR CONSTITUTION!

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/ccp-likely-moving-toward-gray-zone-warfare-in-taiwan-strategy-analysts_4332487.html?utm_source=China&utm_campaign=uschina-2022-03-13&utm_medium=email&est=xUse4d%2FTgwLMGYyY2QhddjFvDj62Hcwab7IJO39WZkXAc2EfkL%2FbThaAWpcQa04AMpuC

TAIWAN
CCP Likely Moving Toward Gray Zone Warfare in Taiwan Strategy: Analysts
By Gary Bai March 12, 2022 Updated: March 12, 2022biggersmaller Print

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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may lean heavier on a gray zone warfare strategy than hard military power in its attempt to take over Taiwan after witnessing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China analysts suggested in a panel discussion.

“Although the gap of military spending and strength between Taiwan and China has been expanding, it seems that China is likely to use gray zone tactics to subvert Taiwan rather than an outright invasion.” Dr. Lee Jyun-yi, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), said in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Global Taiwan Institute on March 9.

Gray zone warfare is the use of carefully designed operations to achieve political gains against target states. The strategy consists of misinformation or disinformation operations, political and economic coercion, cyber attack, and provocation.

“Taiwan enjoys the blessing of geography in conventional deterrence. The fact that Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait means that a Chinese armed attack must consist of an element of amphibious warfare,” Dr. Lee said.

“Consequently, the development of amphibious vehicles and the mobilization of troops become crucial signs for determining the intention of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).”

This factor makes it difficult for the PLA to launch a blitzkrieg attack on Taiwan without alarming the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, or to turn military exercises into an armed attack, which is “in contrast to the Russian invasion [of] Ukraine,” Dr. Lee explained.

In addition, “Taiwan has been bolstering its national defenses by, for instance, increasing its national [defense] budget, developing asymmetric warfare capabilities, undertaking reservist reforms, and so on,” he said, noting these improvements will prompt China to rely more on gray zone warfare rather than a military incursion.

Eric Chan, a Senior Strategist at the United States Air Force, added that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine likely put the West on high alert.

“[The CCP knows] the U.S. and Europe [are] now certainly more on edge, and they are going to be watching for things like “a repeat of 2014,” Mr. Chan said in the virtual event, referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Therefore, China’s invasion of Taiwan or what he foresaw in 2021 as a “limited invasion” of Kinmen—a cluster of Taiwanese islands miles away from China’s southeast coast—is not as viable now, Mr. Chan added.

According to a biennial report released by Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence in September 2021, the PLA initiated 554 airspace intrusions by flying warplanes into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) between September 2020 and the end of August 2021.

The objective of this tactic is to “subdue Taiwan’s military forces and shake the morale of the Taiwanese people and military” to “take over Taiwan without a battle,” the report said.

[DougMacG]

Biden Administration:  China has been warned!  Consequences!!  That oughtta stop 'em.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/jake-sullivan-warns-of-consequences-if-china-helps-russia-evade-sanctions

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3170315/will-china-heed-us-european-calls-help-restrain-russia-ukraine?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3170329/ukraine-war-biden-adviser-jake-sullivan-meet-senior-chinese?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

What could go wrong.

[ccp]

https://news.yahoo.com/alligator-snaps-50-pound-dog-140006740.html

so


the entire Ethos of CCP is to beat us down and take advantage of us
and lie cheat and steal

so what could come of this?

some dubious announcement that Joe talked tough with Xixi ping ?

[G M]

Nothing sounds tougher than a seriously demented geezer slurring incoherent sentences!

https://news.yahoo.com/alligator-snaps-50-pound-dog-140006740.html

so


the entire Ethos of CCP is to beat us down and take advantage of us
and lie cheat and steal

so what could come of this?

some dubious announcement that Joe talked tough with Xixi ping ?

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18355/china-southeast-asia

[G M]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18355/china-southeast-asia

The Big Guy got his 10%.

[ccp]

".The Big Guy got his 10%."

I wonder if that included 10 % of the girls and 10% of the crack......

[G M]

".The Big Guy got his 10%."

I wonder if that included 10 % of the girls and 10% of the crack......

Imagine what the Ministry of State Security has on Hunter. I would be a half Chinese grandchild of the current US president is included.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-28/solomon-islands-lawmaker-says-australia-was-warned-on-china-pact?fbclid=IwAR0Oto4hrjf-hMQ3NGqbfFyTBnO3FFJRxBwzouj-S9dQSU5xd8Mp7QANyRQ

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18384/china-takes-over-solomon-islands

[G M]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18384/china-takes-over-solomon-islands

So much losing, you’ll be tired of all the losing!

[ccp]

"https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18384/china-takes-over-solomon-islands"

 

[G M]

https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/03/losing-solomons.html

It's only going to get worse from here.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18384/china-takes-over-solomon-islands

So much losing, you’ll be tired of all the losing!

[Crafty_Dog]

The CCP’s Military Plan for Taiwan’s Subjugation
'Deceive the heavens to cross the sea'
Guermantes Lailari
Guermantes Lailari
 April 2, 2022 Updated: April 2, 2022biggersmaller Print
News Analysis

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) disguises its intent to subjugate Taiwan via a siege. Inspiration for this effort comes from Chinese military and diplomatic history.

The classic Chinese military strategy book, “Thirty-Six Stratagems,” was written over 1,500 years ago. The first strategy, to “deceive the heavens to cross the sea,” was designed for countries in a superior position. This strategy intends to lull or condition one’s adversary into relaxed vigilance.

Responding to the 2016 and 2020 Taiwanese presidential electoral victories of Tsai Ing-wen and the shocking events in Hong Kong and Ukraine, 80 percent of Taiwanese people polled want to keep the status quo or move toward declaring independence from mainland China.

Their growing sense of independence and fear of severe consequences of being under the CCP’s autocratic and kleptocratic subjugation have galvanized them. The CCP hoped that Taiwan would commit democratic suicide and join other captive regions (Tibet, East Turkestan, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong).

Due to the Taiwanese public preference for independence, the CCP is examining military options to achieve Taiwan’s “unification” with China.

The CCP has demonstrated at least three types of behaviors that align with an aggressive strategy.

First, it conducts political warfare and military action against countries, companies, and individuals that deviate from the CCP’s desired path. Most recently, the CCP tested political warfare weapons in its toolkit against Lithuania with some of the most severe “mafia-like” measures to date.

Second, the CCP uses Vladimir Lenin’s dictum, “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw,” in the South China Sea (SCS) by taking over small islands and converting them into People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military bases.

Examples of the CCP’s aggression include taking the Paracel Islands (1974) and south Johnson Reef (1988) from Vietnam; and massing commercial, maritime militia, and Chinese Coast Guard ships around the Philippine’s Scarborough Shoal (2012) and Whitsun Reef (2021).

The CCP’s continued harassment of SCS navies is an example of how it “probes,” in this case with ships. The SCS countries have not found steel to stop CCP probing and aggression in the SCS.

Comparing the U.S. Navy and the PLA Navy (PLAN), the number and capabilities of the ships are often used to show that the PLAN is trying to match the U.S. Navy. Rarely discussed is the comparison of the Chinese Coast Guard to its neighbors’ assets.

In 2015, the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence published a comparative analysis of the Chinese Coast Guard, showing the stark Chinese power regional imbalance of the respective coast guards.

A Chinese Coast Guard ship
A Chinese Coast Guard ship sails near a Philippine Coast Guard vessel during its patrol at Bajo de Masinloc, 124 nautical miles west of Zambales Province, northwestern Philippines, on March 2, 2022. (Philippine Coast Guard via AP)
Third, the PLA conducts many types of aggressive military maneuvers in and around Taiwan. The most blatant of these is the unannounced flights of PLA aircraft into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the southeast, south, and southwest.

PLA Air Envelopment
Less reported by the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) are the PLA flights into Japan’s ADIZ that bracket Taiwan to the northeast, north, and northwest.

In 2020, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) published a rigorous analysis of the PLA’s flights in and around South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. The PLA air provocations against Taiwan had three patterns:

Circumnavigational flights of Taiwan (most common provocation).
ADIZ intrusions (second most common provocation).
Violations of the cross-strait median line (viewed as the most provocative action and, as a result, are rare).
The circumnavigational flights are probably not reported by the MND since it appears that the PLA Air Force skirts around the Taiwan ADIZ. However, the MND has reported dramatic increases in PLA intrusions into Taiwan’s ADIZ since the fall of 2020.

An example of multiple PLA aircraft ADIZ intrusions occurred on Nov. 28, 2021, with 27 aircraft and longer flight profiles.

A comprehensive map (here) shows PLA incursions on Taiwan and Japan’s ADIZ, detailing the PLA aircraft enveloping Taiwan by air.

PLA Naval Envelopment
The Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JASDF) have reported PLA Naval deployments between Japan and Taiwan into the western Pacific. These trends are depicted by the most recent Japanese Defense White Paper (2021).

Page 18 of the document contains a map depicting the various PLAN deployments in red arrows. Like the PLA aircraft encirclement of Japan and Taiwan (yellow arrows), the PLAN is training for the equivalent maritime encirclement operation (subsurface, surface, and above surface).

What Are the Implications?
These civil and military actions prepare the CCP for many possible lines of effort. The sheer number of possible actions makes it difficult to identify and assess the likelihood of any particular action. In effect, the CCP is disguising what it plans to do while leaving open several possible courses of action. These actions are designed to lower the vigilance of Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and others. These actions provide China with at least three main options—the last of which appears to be the most likely.

Option 1: Taiwan Invasion
The first option, and the most obvious, is that the CCP is preparing its forces for an invasion of Taiwan. Much has been written on this and how the Chinese will invade. Ian Easton’s book, “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” provides an excellent analysis of a full-scale invasion.

This PLA option is its “hard” course of action that it can implement if Taiwan or other countries cross the CCP’s red lines.

In the 2020 Department of Defense annual report to Congress, the DOD assessed that the CCP has seven red lines:

Formal declaration of Taiwan independence.
Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence.
Internal unrest in Taiwan.
Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-strait dialogue on unification.
Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs.
Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.
In the 2021 DOD report, the seventh red line, “foreign forces stationed on Taiwan,” was removed, probably because the First Special Forces Group released a video on its Facebook page showing personnel training Taiwanese forces in June 2020.

In October 2021, President Tsai acknowledged the presence of U.S. military personnel in Taiwan as part of the U.S. assistance to “increasing our [Taiwan’s] defense capability.”

Epoch Times Photo
Two armed U.S.-made F-16V fighters fly over an air force base in Chiayi, southern Taiwan, on Jan. 5, 2022. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)
Option 2: Psychological Warfare—Deterrence
The second option’s focus is the threat of invasion (psychological warfare—designed to deter Taiwan supporters) rather than an actual invasion. The CCP wants to remind Taiwan and the rest of the world to maintain the CCP’s “One China” policy and not provide Taiwan diplomatic recognition and create fear of providing “too much support” for Taiwan.

In effect, the second option is designed to deter the rest of the world and Taiwan from going outside the CCP’s “red lines” and allow maximum flexibility for the CCP: psychological blockade.

Option 3: Total Taiwan Blockade With Options
The third, and the most likely option, is a total blockade of Taiwan and its islands. Why is a blockade the most likely scenario?

Under normal circumstances, a blockade would be an act of war, and the resulting starvation of a country’s population would be categorized as a war crime for international armed conflicts.

Yet, according to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), blockading a country’s “province” is not an act of war, and starving one’s own population is not categorized as a war crime.

Since Taiwan is not recognized as a sovereign country (not a United Nations member), international law does not consider a blockade of Taiwan to be an act of war. The resulting suffering would be difficult to pursue in the ICC since it does not address cases of non-international armed conflicts.

The CCP’s use of lawfare in a blockade protects the CCP against international legal tools; a blockade and associated actions are consistent with viewing Taiwan as a rebellious Chinese province.

Media attention would be minimal if the PLA does not conduct active kinetic operations against Taiwan. In contrast to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a blockade option probably would not motivate international action against the CCP.

Epoch Times Photo
Warships and fighter jets of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy take part in a military display in the South China Sea on April 12, 2018. (Reuters)
Beijing has indicated that any foreign nation’s interference in its operations against Taiwan would be considered interfering with its internal affairs. The CCP has threatened the use of nuclear weapons to counter such interference, thereby establishing another red line before it initiates any operation against Taiwan.

Beijing would coerce countries, companies, organizations, and individuals to comply with its demands. Moreover, by blocking shipping and aircraft from arriving to and departing from Taiwan and its associated islands, the CCP would seek to force the population to “bend the knee” and accept CCP rule. A blockade is classic siege warfare, and Mao Zedong encouraged siege warfare in his book, “People’s War.”

The CCP would escalate its operation against Taiwan and would conduct a total blockade once it is confident of minimal international opposition. Ukraine provided the CCP with useful insights on global punishments against a superpower. China has more leverage based on its world trade and its experiences than the Russian government. The CCP will prepare accordingly.

The Taiwanese government and people should prepare against this likely siege warfare scenario. The Taiwanese should have in place a food supply reserve capability to mitigate critical dependencies such as possible fishing restrictions. The military should make similar preparations if a blockade were implemented, including ensuring that Taiwan has sufficient stored supplies to conduct a protracted war.

In addition to an air and sea blockade, the CCP might attempt to implement a communications blockade—denying Taiwan the means to communicate with the outside world by disrupting satellites and sea cables. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war shows that commercial satellite alternative options are viable and can maintain necessary communications.

Conclusion
In his book “On Protracted War,” Mao argued that “[t]here can never be too much deception in war.” Following his injunction, the CCP uses deception to disguise its preparations to conduct a total blockade: “deceive the heavens to cross the sea.”

Taiwan and its allies should recognize the deception and prepare accordingly for a total blockade. Once a blockade is functioning, additional options to subjugate Taiwan become available to the CCP.

Communicating the CCP’s blockade threat to Taiwan’s whole of society could mobilize the population to enhance its resilience. Communicating the CCP threat to Taiwan’s allies could help deter the CCP’s plan of assimilating Taiwan through siege warfare.

The CCP is using deception to prepare its battlefield for the effort to subjugate Taiwan. The Taiwanese should heed an ancient Chinese proverb that provides useful advice about the necessity of being prepared for the current situation: “Dig the well before you are thirsty.”

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times

[G M]

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/398503.php

https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/03/losing-solomons.html

It's only going to get worse from here.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18384/china-takes-over-solomon-islands

So much losing, you’ll be tired of all the losing!

[DougMacG]

"The Solomon Islands are just to the east of New Guinea, and only 1,100 miles to the northeast of Australia.  That’s about the same distance as Los Angeles to Seattle – not a significant nautical distance."

  - Looks like that backyard courtesy rule applies to totalitarian regimes but not to US allies.

I can't wait to see the ultimatum Biden confronts his Chinese donors and extortionists with:
'Russia, China, you stay out of those regions or I'll, I'll, I'll, oh skip it.  We surrender.'  Russia, you take Europe. Not our problem.  China, you take the Asia Pacific, not our problem.  West Hemisphere, oops, that's China's too.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/ncna1284713

When do we want to stand up to militarized, totalitarian evil?

My instinct says early and often, every time it rears its ugly head, or very soon it will be too late.

[G M]

Russia hasn't taken Kiev as of yet, it seems Paris is safe. We'll know the ROC. OZ and NZ are serious when they become nuclear powers. After the COVID tyranny, I am ambivalent about defending OZ. NZ can be overrun by the PLA as far as I am concerned.

"The Solomon Islands are just to the east of New Guinea, and only 1,100 miles to the northeast of Australia.  That’s about the same distance as Los Angeles to Seattle – not a significant nautical distance."

  - Looks like that backyard courtesy rule applies to totalitarian regimes but not to US allies.

I can't wait to see the ultimatum Biden confronts his Chinese donors and extortionists with:
'Russia, China, you stay out of those regions or I'll, I'll, I'll, oh skip it.  We surrender.'  Russia, you take Europe. Not our problem.  China, you take the Asia Pacific, not our problem.  West Hemisphere, oops, that's China's too.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/amp/ncna1284713

When do we want to stand up to militarized, totalitarian evil?

My instinct says early and often, every time it rears its ugly head, or very soon it will be too late.

[Crafty_Dog]

A second chance for Biden’s Asia team

The clock is ticking

By Jim Fanell

As Americans watch in horror at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine and recall America’s disastrous rout from Afghanistan, an urgent question is being asked: Is the Biden administration’s foreign policy team up to the task of defending America’s national security interests in the Asia Pacific, specifically the defense of Taiwan?

The answer rests upon understanding who is on President Biden’s team and their previous record of actions and results. Former President Barack Obama has noted that 90% of Biden’s team came from his administration. Mr. Obama boasted Mr. Biden is “finishing the job” he started during his two terms in office.

It is worth examining the Obama administration’s foreign policy team and some of the highly destructive decisions they made regarding the Asia-Pacific region.

April 2022 marks the 10th anniversary of what is arguably America’s greatest foreign policy disaster in Asia since the fall of Saigon in 1975. Yet few today understand America’s retreat from the South China Sea at Scarborough Shoal from April to June 2012.

This history matters because the same national security “experts” that oversaw the Scarborough Shoal fiasco are staffing the upper echelons of the Biden administration now, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, NSC “Asia Czar” Kurt Campbell and others of lesser stature, such as Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby. This group has an established track record of weakness and appeasement in many crises. They appear to be failing regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China’s threats to take Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands and parts of India by military force.

In April 2012, PRC commercial ships were caught inside Scarborough Shoal, within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, stealing Philippine giant clams and coral. The illegal actions by these PRC ships instigated a standoff that ultimately forced the Philippine Coast Guard and fishermen away from their ancestral fishing grounds. The U.S. State Department, led by then-Assistant Secretary Kurt Campbell, abetted the PRC’s theft by negotiating a flawed mutual withdrawal of PLA Navy and Philippine naval assets from Scarborough in June 2012.

The Philippine vessels withdrew, but the PRC immediately reneged on the agreement. It refused to remove its vessels, giving the PRC sovereign domain over territory that it enjoys to this day — territory belonging to a key U.S. treaty ally. Mr. Campbell, Mr. Sullivan and other seniors within Obama administration ignored pleas by the president of the Philippines for the U.S. to force the PRC to comply. Nothing is more sensitive to a mutual defense treat than the defense of territory, and everybody in East Asia immediately understood America’s betrayal.

The most obvious failure of these so-called “experts” in defending America’s national interests was the construction of the “New Spratly Islands,” seven artificial islands in the southern portion of the SCC, three being the size and capacity of the Pearl Harbor naval base. Despite repeated warnings about this ongoing NSI construction, the “experts” failed to act to blunt Beijing’s illegal, militarily threatening territorial expansionism.

This ineptitude is even more indefensible because Beijing arrogantly proceeded with its unprecedented, massive construction in the face of an impending decision by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration on its claim to most of the SCS. On July 12, 2016, the court ruled China’s claim illegal. Yet the Obama-Biden national security team did little more than acknowledge the building of the islands and conduct routine naval transits through the SCS far from these new islands. PLAN warships now challenge every foreign naval warship entering the SCS and demand they request Beijing’s permission before entering. The devastating long-term impact of this U.S. policy failure is the PRC’s de facto possession of the SCS, flouting international law and disrupting 80 years of peace and stability.

Combined with the ignoble retreat from Kabul and the failure to deter Russian aggression and adequately help defend Ukraine, this pattern of appeasement and failure has led Beijing to believe the U.S. is unable and/or unwilling to defend Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping repeatedly threatens to invade democratic Taiwan and has built the military capability to do so.

The PLA’s invasion plan is on a timeline that supports Mr. Xi’s “Great Rejuvenation,” which includes the goal of the physical restoration of China. The invasion count-down clock is rapidly ticking: We are now in the “Decade of Concern/Danger” (2020-2030). Those leading Biden’s team assured us that China takes the long view and would take Taiwan through peaceful means and not kinetic combat operations. The fatuousness of this view is now incontrovertible.

What can be done to reverse the CCP’s ambitions? First and foremost, the Biden administration must designate the PRC as a strategic adversary and an existential threat to U.S. national security and the free world. Second, the president must replace his current national security team. Mr. Campbell and Mr. Sullivan must be among the first to leave: Mr. Campbell is merely a figurehead as the “Asia czar” and has failed to confront the paramount threat to our nation, and Mr. Sullivan’s record of weakness and abysmal analytical skill is equally unforgivable. Third, the U.S., in conjunction with our allies and partners, must equip Taiwan with the weapons that will both deter PRC aggression and, if Mr. Xi invades, force Beijing to undertake a protracted, costly counterinsurgency. Fourth, the U.S. must take a whole-ofgovernment approach to confront and deter the PRC across the region. For example, a massive naval and air buildup must be undertaken immediately. Fifth, the U.S. must counter the PRC’s vast Political Warfare campaign it is waging to destroy us and other democracies. One step must be to terminate the fatally flawed “strategic ambiguity” policy toward Taiwan.

Sixth, the U.S. military must begin to operate with our allies as real equals. We must open up tactical and operational data sharing, collaborative intelligence, and surveillance and reconnaissance channels to provide adequate indications and warning.

The Biden administration’s national security team had the chance to prove they learned the lessons of the failures of the Obama administration in confronting an expansionist, totalitarian regime in Russia and China. Sadly, they are failing to do so.

Time is not on our side. Accordingly, Mr. Biden must explicitly define the PRC’s existential threat and replace his current national security team with realists who can effectively confront and defeat this threat with real actions today.

Retired Navy Capt. James Fanell is the former director of intelligence for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, who had headed all intelligence and information opera-tions for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command up until his retirement in 2015

[G M]

The author assumes the shadow cartel pulling Biden's strings wants to win against China.

A second chance for Biden’s Asia team

The clock is ticking

By Jim Fanell

As Americans watch in horror at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine and recall America’s disastrous rout from Afghanistan, an urgent question is being asked: Is the Biden administration’s foreign policy team up to the task of defending America’s national security interests in the Asia Pacific, specifically the defense of Taiwan?

The answer rests upon understanding who is on President Biden’s team and their previous record of actions and results. Former President Barack Obama has noted that 90% of Biden’s team came from his administration. Mr. Obama boasted Mr. Biden is “finishing the job” he started during his two terms in office.

It is worth examining the Obama administration’s foreign policy team and some of the highly destructive decisions they made regarding the Asia-Pacific region.

April 2022 marks the 10th anniversary of what is arguably America’s greatest foreign policy disaster in Asia since the fall of Saigon in 1975. Yet few today understand America’s retreat from the South China Sea at Scarborough Shoal from April to June 2012.

This history matters because the same national security “experts” that oversaw the Scarborough Shoal fiasco are staffing the upper echelons of the Biden administration now, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, NSC “Asia Czar” Kurt Campbell and others of lesser stature, such as Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby. This group has an established track record of weakness and appeasement in many crises. They appear to be failing regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the People’s Republic of China’s threats to take Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands and parts of India by military force.

In April 2012, PRC commercial ships were caught inside Scarborough Shoal, within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, stealing Philippine giant clams and coral. The illegal actions by these PRC ships instigated a standoff that ultimately forced the Philippine Coast Guard and fishermen away from their ancestral fishing grounds. The U.S. State Department, led by then-Assistant Secretary Kurt Campbell, abetted the PRC’s theft by negotiating a flawed mutual withdrawal of PLA Navy and Philippine naval assets from Scarborough in June 2012.

The Philippine vessels withdrew, but the PRC immediately reneged on the agreement. It refused to remove its vessels, giving the PRC sovereign domain over territory that it enjoys to this day — territory belonging to a key U.S. treaty ally. Mr. Campbell, Mr. Sullivan and other seniors within Obama administration ignored pleas by the president of the Philippines for the U.S. to force the PRC to comply. Nothing is more sensitive to a mutual defense treat than the defense of territory, and everybody in East Asia immediately understood America’s betrayal.

The most obvious failure of these so-called “experts” in defending America’s national interests was the construction of the “New Spratly Islands,” seven artificial islands in the southern portion of the SCC, three being the size and capacity of the Pearl Harbor naval base. Despite repeated warnings about this ongoing NSI construction, the “experts” failed to act to blunt Beijing’s illegal, militarily threatening territorial expansionism.

This ineptitude is even more indefensible because Beijing arrogantly proceeded with its unprecedented, massive construction in the face of an impending decision by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration on its claim to most of the SCS. On July 12, 2016, the court ruled China’s claim illegal. Yet the Obama-Biden national security team did little more than acknowledge the building of the islands and conduct routine naval transits through the SCS far from these new islands. PLAN warships now challenge every foreign naval warship entering the SCS and demand they request Beijing’s permission before entering. The devastating long-term impact of this U.S. policy failure is the PRC’s de facto possession of the SCS, flouting international law and disrupting 80 years of peace and stability.

Combined with the ignoble retreat from Kabul and the failure to deter Russian aggression and adequately help defend Ukraine, this pattern of appeasement and failure has led Beijing to believe the U.S. is unable and/or unwilling to defend Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping repeatedly threatens to invade democratic Taiwan and has built the military capability to do so.

The PLA’s invasion plan is on a timeline that supports Mr. Xi’s “Great Rejuvenation,” which includes the goal of the physical restoration of China. The invasion count-down clock is rapidly ticking: We are now in the “Decade of Concern/Danger” (2020-2030). Those leading Biden’s team assured us that China takes the long view and would take Taiwan through peaceful means and not kinetic combat operations. The fatuousness of this view is now incontrovertible.

What can be done to reverse the CCP’s ambitions? First and foremost, the Biden administration must designate the PRC as a strategic adversary and an existential threat to U.S. national security and the free world. Second, the president must replace his current national security team. Mr. Campbell and Mr. Sullivan must be among the first to leave: Mr. Campbell is merely a figurehead as the “Asia czar” and has failed to confront the paramount threat to our nation, and Mr. Sullivan’s record of weakness and abysmal analytical skill is equally unforgivable. Third, the U.S., in conjunction with our allies and partners, must equip Taiwan with the weapons that will both deter PRC aggression and, if Mr. Xi invades, force Beijing to undertake a protracted, costly counterinsurgency. Fourth, the U.S. must take a whole-ofgovernment approach to confront and deter the PRC across the region. For example, a massive naval and air buildup must be undertaken immediately. Fifth, the U.S. must counter the PRC’s vast Political Warfare campaign it is waging to destroy us and other democracies. One step must be to terminate the fatally flawed “strategic ambiguity” policy toward Taiwan.

Sixth, the U.S. military must begin to operate with our allies as real equals. We must open up tactical and operational data sharing, collaborative intelligence, and surveillance and reconnaissance channels to provide adequate indications and warning.

The Biden administration’s national security team had the chance to prove they learned the lessons of the failures of the Obama administration in confronting an expansionist, totalitarian regime in Russia and China. Sadly, they are failing to do so.

Time is not on our side. Accordingly, Mr. Biden must explicitly define the PRC’s existential threat and replace his current national security team with realists who can effectively confront and defeat this threat with real actions today.

Retired Navy Capt. James Fanell is the former director of intelligence for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, who had headed all intelligence and information opera-tions for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command up until his retirement in 2015

[Crafty_Dog]

TAIWAN

Taiwan publishes first civil defense handbook

Military prepares for an attack by China amid fallout from Ukraine

BY BILL GERTZ THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Taiwan’s military has published its first-ever civil defense handbook to prepare the island’s 23 million people for a possible Chinese attack.

The handbook provides detailed guidance for civilians on finding air raid shelters, coping with building collapses and fires, power and water outages, general war preparations and survival basics.

Disclosure of the handbook’s release this week was just the latest sign of growing unease in Taipei over the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns China may seek to emulate Russia with a military move against Taiwan. Civilian resistance has proved a major factor in the surprising ability of Ukraine to hold off Russian attacks so far.

“[We] are providing information on how citizens should react in a military crisis and possible disasters to come,” said Liu Tai-yi, a Defense Ministry official, during an online news conference held to release the handbook on Tuesday in Taipei. Taiwan also held military drills this week, the ministry said.

Meanwhile, a six-member U.S. congressional delegation led by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Menendez, New Jersey Democrat, arrived in Taipei to show U.S. support for Taiwan, Reuters reported. The bipartisan group is set to meet Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday.

Taiwan Presidential Office spokesman Xavier Chang said in a statement the visit will deepen the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, but a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman denounced the trip to the island-nation Beijing considers part of its sovereign territory.

“Relevant U.S. lawmakers should abide by the one-China policy upheld by the U.S. government,” spokesman Zhao Lijian told a Beijing briefing Thursday. “The U.S. should … stop official contacts with Taiwan, and avoid going further down the dangerous path.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his nation’s success against the Russian invasion was based on national unity that fostered fierce resistance, with civilian volunteers providing crucial support for Ukraine’s outnumbered and outgunned forces. Taiwan has raised the alert level of its forces since the Russian military incursion began on Feb. 24. The government has said it does not see signs of an imminent Chinese attack.

The civil defense handbook uses comic-book-like graphics and amounts to official recognition that Taiwan’s leaders fear they are facing a potential military attack in the future.

Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, warned in remarks last month that the Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights the danger China poses to Taiwan.

“I don’t think anyone five months ago would have predicted an invasion of the Ukraine. So I think the No. 1 lesson is: ‘Hey, this could really happen,’” Adm. Aquilino told the Financial Times during a visit to Australia.

China’s military forces have stepped up provocative military operations near Taiwan that the admiral said were part of a pressure campaign targeting the people of Taiwan.

Publication of the Taiwan civil defense handbook on Tuesday was the first time the Taiwanese military put out its recommendations for how to cope with a conflict. The handbook also mentions that some of the measures could be used in response to a natural disaster such as an earthquake.

“National defense is a demonstration of the people’s overall strength, awareness and resistance to the enemy,” the handbook states. “Only by being fully prepared can we protect ourselves and work together.”

The handbooks reveal how in the event of conflict the military will communicate with reservists, reservists who would be summoned via a mobilization symbol on television or notification via radio broadcast. The handbook also provides QR codes that can be used with smartphones to locate air raid shelters and emergency rooms, weather information and details on dealing with power outages.

During bombing raids, civilians are urged to turn off power, water and gas, and close windows and doors before heading for shelters. For people caught outside during an air raid, the handbook recommends assuming a “refuge posture” of kneeling with the body arched off the ground, with eyes and ears covered and the mouth open slightly.

In response to the disruption of food supplies, such as an attack on a grain warehouse, Taiwanese agricultural authorities will set up rice, edible oil, salt and natural gas distribution. Citizens also should prepare by storing a three-day supply of food, water, clothing, cash, maps and identifi cation documents.

China’s state media dismissed the handbook as part of efforts by Taipei to exacerbate cross-strait tensions.

A Chinese military expert told the Communist Party-affiliated Global Times outlet that both the military exercises and the handbook “are futile in saving ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces should a cross-strait conflict break out.”

[Crafty_Dog]

U.S. Lawmakers Make Surprise Taiwan Visit to Signal Support Against China
Trip draws angry response from Beijing, as Washington warns it against any attempt to change the island democracy’s status quo

Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, speaking at a news conference in Taipei on Friday, called Taiwan a ‘country,’ a reference that rankles Beijing.
PHOTO: TAIWAN MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAI/VIA REUTERS
By Joyu Wang
Apr. 15, 2022 9:23 am ET


TAIPEI—Six U.S. lawmakers met with Taiwan’s leader on Friday in a show of support for the island democracy, in a surprise trip that signals more tension between Washington and Beijing.

The six-member delegation, led by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Menendez (D., NJ), blasted Beijing for what it described as China’s support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit prompted a military response and angry words from Beijing.

“We are going to start making China pay a greater price for what they are doing all over the world. The support for Putin must come with a price,” Mr. Graham told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen during a meeting in Taipei, adding: “To abandon Taiwan would be to abandon democracy and freedom.”

Sens. Graham and Menendez were joined by Sens. Richard Burr (R., N.C.), Rob Portman (R., Ohio) and Ben Sasse (R., Neb.), and Rep. Ronny Jackson (R., Tex.). Mr. Menendez was the sole Democrat. The six men arrived in Taipei on Thursday evening aboard a Boeing C-40C operated by the U.S. Air Force.

In addition to Ms. Tsai, the Congressional delegation met with Taiwan’s Defense Minister and other senior officials.

The congressional trip comes as Washington seeks to reassure Taiwan of its support, while warning Beijing against any attempts to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait with military action.

The war in Ukraine has turned a spotlight on how Washington would respond in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a democratically-governed island that China’s Communist Party has never ruled but claims as part of its territory and has vowed to win control over, by force if necessary.

A spokesman for China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, said in a statement Friday that the U.S. delegation had sent a “serious wrong signal” to Taiwan, warning against what it described as external interference in support of Taiwanese separatists.

A social-media post published by the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said destroyers, bomber and fighters engaged in a joint combat exercise and readiness patrol on Friday.

Beijing has ratcheted up its military activity around Taiwan in recent years, sending warplanes into Taiwan’s vicinity on a near-daily basis as diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei have strengthened.

“They are very unhappy that we are here, but that did not dissuade us from coming and it won’t dissuade us in the future in supporting Taiwan,” Mr. Menendez told Ms. Tsai on Friday in Taipei, noting Beijing’s recent protests.

Using language anathema to Beijing, Mr. Menendez pointedly referred to Taiwan as a country, describing it as “a country of global significance, of global consequence, of global impact.”

The bipartisan delegation’s trip to Taipei came as U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. was seeking to prevent a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan.

“We are going to take every step we possibly can to ensure that never happens,” Mr. Sullivan said at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. on Thursday.

Earlier this month, the State Department notified Congress that it had agreed to sell $95 million in equipment, training and other services to support the island’s Patriot Air Defense System, the second such deal the White House has pushed through this year. China condemned the move.


Many made-in-China goods are now produced in Taiwan, creating an export boom to the U.S. as tensions rise between Washington and Beijing. WSJ visits a Taiwanese factory to see how geopolitics are complicating the business environment. Photo composite: Sharon Shi
This week’s Congressional visit to Taiwan represents the latest of a string of such delegations during the Biden administration, in addition to another in March led by Michael Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) was slated to visit Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter. That trip, however, was scrapped at the last minute after Mrs. Pelosi tested positive for Covid-19.

Reports of Mrs. Pelosi’s planned trip had drawn ire from China’s Foreign Ministry, which said it raised objections to the U.S. and warned of retaliatory measures.

A spokesman for Mrs. Pelosi said last week that a planned trip to Asia had been postponed. It couldn’t be determined if new plans were being drafted. Mrs. Pelosi has since tested negative for Covid-19 and is no longer isolating.

Any visit to Taiwan by Mrs. Pelosi would make her the highest-ranking sitting U.S. lawmaker to visit the island since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich traveled to Taipei in 1997 and met with then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui.

Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com

[DougMacG]

G M link from another thread:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/taiwans-defense-plans-are-going-off-the-rails/

Good news I guess is that IF Taiwan is unprepared and unconcerned, counting on the Biden leadership to save them, this will be a short war.

[Crafty_Dog]

Important issues raised there.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18435/us-arm-taiwan

[ccp]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/12/chinas-orbiting-hypersonic-missile-part-of-growing/

[Crafty_Dog]

China’s Secret Navy in the South China Sea
Richard A. Bitzinger
Richard A. Bitzinger
 April 23, 2022 Updated: April 23, 2022biggersmaller Print


Few regions are more strategically important to China than the South China Sea (SCS). Beijing has increasingly treated the SCS as a “Chinese lake,” subject to its “indisputable sovereignty.”

Beijing’s competing territorial claims within other countries bordering on the SCS have led China to be militarily engaged and active in this area for many years. This has often led to tensions, if not outright clashes.

The issue of Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea has been less and less about economics—oil and gas reserves or fishing rights—and more about control and sovereignty.

The South China Sea is, quite simply, a key defensive zone for Beijing. Accordingly, China has particularly increased its military presence in the region through expanded patrols by the PLA Navy (PLAN). In addition, there has been a dramatic military expansion on the Hainan and Woody islands in the western SCS.

Woody Island has witnessed the construction of a 2,700-meter runway that can accommodate most Chinese fighter jets, an improved harbor, and the deployment of long-range HQ-9B surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).

Beijing has also been engaged in a massive effort to assemble—and subsequently militarize—a constellation of artificial islands in the Spratlys, in the eastern part of the SCS. This building program included the construction of runways on Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief reefs, harbors and barracks, and, finally, the emplacement of radar stations, anti-aircraft guns, HQ-9B SAMs, and YJ-12B supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) to the islands.

Epoch Times Photo
An airstrip made by China is seen beside structures and buildings at the man-made island on Mischief Reef in the Spratlys group of islands in the South China Sea on March 20, 2022. (Aaron Favila/AP Photo)

Beyond an overt military presence in the SCS, China has lately expanded its paranaval activities. These include more traditional undertakings, such as increased patrols by the Chinese Coast Guard, and the use of an irregular but still Beijing-controlled “maritime militia”—the so-called “little blue men.”

Coast guards are usually noncontroversial in maritime matters. They are primarily concerned with protecting freedom of navigation and operations in regional sea lines of communication (SLOC). This includes combating piracy and other sea-based criminal activities, human trafficking, and drug smuggling.

Coast guards are also used to enforce exclusive economic zones (EEZs). EEZs are regional maritime territories, extending out from shore no more than 200 nautical miles, within which a country has exclusive rights to exploit for economic gain; this includes fishing but also oil and gas deposits.

EEZs in the SCS are particularly contentious since many countries’ claims overlap. Therefore, regional coast guards have found an increased function in enforcing EEZ rights.

The advantage of using coast guards in sovereignty enforcement operations is that they are lightly armed (usually just a small cannon or machine guns). This lowers the risk of catastrophic clashes in the SCS. But if such clashes increase or the stakes are raised, they could escalate into more violent action involving navies.

For example, using paranaval forces to sink commercial ships, resulting in a large loss of life, or employing coast guards to forcibly remove personnel from bases in the SCS or block oil and gas exploration from disputed areas and, thus, provoking armed resistance—all of these actions could increase the risk of conflict.

It should surprise no one that the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) is the largest in the SCS and one of the most active. Until recently, China operated five civil maritime forces: China Marine Surveillance (CMS), the Border Patrol, the Fisheries Law Enforcement Command, Customs, and the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA). Many of these forces overlapped in their missions and competed with each other. In 2013, the first four services were combined into a single China Coast Guard (CCG) under the command of the State Oceanic Administration.

The CCG operates over a hundred patrol boats, particularly the 41-meter Type-218 offshore patrol vessels, armed with twin 14.5mm machine guns. In 2007, the PLAN transferred two 1700-ton Type 053H (Jianghu-I) frigates to the CCG, making them the largest ships in the coast guard.

In 2016, China launched two 12,000-ton “monster cutters” for the CCG, the largest paranaval vessel in existence. At least one of these ships has been more or less permanently deployed to the SCS.


Unsurprisingly, the CCG has been one of the most aggressive paranaval fleets in the SCS. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the CCG has been involved in a sizable majority of clashes in the SCS, including bullying, harassing, and even ramming of other countries’ coast guard and fishing vessels. In November 2021, the CCG used water cannon on two Filipino supply boats operating within the Philippines’ EEZ.

But the CCG’s actions are nothing compared to those of China’s “militarized fisherman,” the so-called “little blue men” who go out in the SCS and purposely clash with ships from other nations, both commercial and naval. These are not simply private fishermen engaged in “patriotic activities.” On the contrary, these vessels are, in actuality, a maritime militia subsidized by Beijing and effectively a part-time military organization.

These boats are sent out to collect intelligence, show the flag, and promote sovereignty claims. Moreover, they are not above creating minor clashes with other ships. They provide Chinese naval and paramilitary forces, particularly the Chinese Coast Guard, with a pretext (protecting Chinese “civilians”) to intervene and thereby bolster China’s military presence in the SCS.

While this maritime militia has been around for years, they have lately become a much more active and aggressive force, and one that has a growing strategic purpose, what has been dubbed the “3Ds” of China’s SCS strategy: declare (Chinese claims), deny (other countries’ claims), and defend (those claims).

The use of paranaval and irregular maritime forces permits the Chinese to operate in overpowering numbers within the SCS. A RAND Corporation report calls this a “classic ‘gray zone’ operations … designed to ‘win without fighting” by overwhelming the adversary with swarms of fishing vessels,” further bolstering Chinese claims of “indisputable sovereignty” in the region.

China has created a powerful paramilitary tool by combining its reinvigorated coast guard with its increased use of a vast and aggressive maritime militia.

According to Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs at the University of the Philippines, the ultimate goal is to “establish de facto control and dominance over the entire South China Sea.”

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18480/what-to-do-about-china

[ccp]

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/05/05/report-chinese-hackers-stole-trillions-in-intellectual-property-from-multinational-companies/

we spend all the money doing research then they get if free from us

[ya]

Biden's QUAD meeting

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3180047/us-be-joined-other-quad-members-south-china-sea-nations-rimpac

[Crafty_Dog]

https://dailycaller.com/2022/06/06/australia-china-air-force-intercept-bundle-of-chaff/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2680&pnespid=rbZ7FHtBJaRAh6Cfqyi0As6MvR62SYl7J.ajzuFt9hhmrLJDCyshfS1o4KZggcaxA7EPOzYB

[ccp]

is this not an act of war?

why cannot an Australian plane fly in China Sea?

[Crafty_Dog]

So too was deliberately letting the Wuhan Virus escape China on international flights while shutting down domestic flights-- and now Biden looks into lifting the Trump tariffs to sooth his domestic inflation troubles.

[Crafty_Dog]

China’s Risky Air Maneuvers Raise the Specter of an International Crisis
Jun 8, 2022 | 19:00 GMT





A digital illustration shows a jet overlaying the Chinese and Australian flags.
A digital illustration shows a jet overlaying the Chinese and Australian flags.

(Shutterstock)

China’s aggressive maneuvers performed while intercepting Western surveillance aircraft increase the chance of a mid-air collision and subsequent international crisis, with higher probabilities of escalation than in the past. On June 5, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said that a Chinese J-16 fighter jet had on May 26 intercepted an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft in international airspace over the South China Sea. According to Marles, the J-16 flew dangerously close to the P-8, deployed flares alongside it, and released aluminum chaff designed to distract radar-guided missiles in front of the aircraft. The P-8 then returned to base after its engines ingested some of the aluminum decoys. The news of this interception follows similar accusations from Canada of China breaching international air safety norms. On June 1, the Canadian armed forces said Chinese jets repeatedly flew close to a Canadian CP-140 Aurora patrol aircraft over the East China Sea between...

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-and-russia-alarm-japan-with-navy-drills-south-of-tokyo/ar-AAYCCkb?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7a46ccd14f8f4638819f2d350b298ab2&fbclid=IwAR04N0T25Em_6UcaNU-Opn8ZlzrCstZ1_u8f-2Tzs6oE2uQcxeRwgxMhLws

[Crafty_Dog]

U.S. approach to China hinges on new outreach from Marcos in Philippines

BY GUY TAYLOR THE WASHINGTON TIMES

A presidential transfer of power this week in the Philippines could either enhance or undermine U.S. efforts to unify Asian democracies against China’s expanding economic power and increasingly aggressive military activity.

Two familiar names will begin leading the Philippines into uncharted territory on Thursday as Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is inaugurated president decades after his dictator father was overthrown and Sara Duterte, the daughter of outgoing firebrand populist President Rodrigo Duterte, is sworn in as his vice president. Mr. Marcos, popularly known by his childhood nickname “Bongbong,” completed an astonishing personal comeback with a convincing win in the Pacific nation’s May 9 election.

With Mr. Marcos so far withholding specifics on foreign policy plans after the notoriously unpredictable Duterte era, speculation is coursing through U.S. national security circles over the future of the country, which was once the central bulwark of Washington’s Asia strategy.

Mr. Marcos has signaled a desire to improve the long-standing U.S.-Philippine military alliance, but he also has made overtures to China that he is open to a potentially dramatic expansion of ties between Manila and the communistruled government in Beijing.

A week after winning the presidency by a landslide in May, Mr. Marcos made headlines by holding what he described as “very substantial” talks with Chinese

President Xi Jinping, indicating plans to accelerate what many saw as Manila’s pro-Beijing shift during the Duterte years. Mr. Marcos, 64, said Mr. Xi had assured him that Beijing would support the Philippines in pursuing its own “independent foreign policy,” but he made no secret of his desire for tighter ties with China.

“The way forward is to expand our relationship not only [diplomatically], not only [in] trade, but also in culture, even in education, even in knowledge, even in health, to address whatever minor disagreements that we have right now,” Mr. Marcos said in a statement, according to Reuters.

Days later, however, he appeared to walk back the statement, saying he planned to stand firm against Beijing in territorial disputes over the South China Sea — the resource-rich waterway over which China claims sovereignty and through which trillions of dollars of trade pass annually.

Agence France-Presse reported that Mr. Marcos said he’ll seek to enforce an international ruling against Beijing’s claims to nearly all of the South China Sea, which have clashed in recent years with smaller territorial claims by the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. Beijing has ignored the 2016 victory by Manila at the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration that rejected the historical basis of its territorial claims.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ husband, first gentleman Douglas Emhoff, will lead the official U.S. delegation to Thursday’s inauguration. China has dispatched Vice President Wang Qishan as Chinese President Xi Jinping’s special representative, China’s Foreign Ministry announced this week. Mr. Wang also headed the Chinese delegation for new South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s inauguration last month.

With regard to U.S.-Philippine relations, meanwhile, Mr. Marcos has reportedly also been in discussion with U.S. diplomats in Manila over plans to extend a delicate joint military pact with Washington that was often a source of acrimony between Washington and the Duterte administration.

The president-elect has signaled a desire to smooth over friction surrounding the Visiting Forces Agreement, which stipulates guidelines for American forces operating in the Philippines, as well as U.S. naval refueling operations and various military exercises.

The joint drills have been maintained with Filipino forces in recent years, despite the U.S. having all but shuttered its basing operations decades ago in the Philippines’ Subic Bay, once the largest U.S. military outpost in Asia.

Thousands of American and Filipino forces recently wrapped up one of their largest combat exercises in years — drills that showcased U.S. firepower in the northern Philippines near its sea border with Taiwan, which American officials say is under increasing threat of invasion from China, whose leaders claim to control the island democracy.

Mr. Marcos’ election in the Philippines arrives amid growing U.S. efforts to broaden engagement with Asian democracies by strengthening a web of security alliances and partnerships, with an emphasis on restraining China.

A recent report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank called for revitalizing the U.S.-Philippine alliance as a linchpin of Washington’s wider strategy “as competition with China intensifies across the Indo-Pacific.”

“The U.S.-Philippines alliance remains of critical importance due to the two countries’ deep historical and cultural ties, including the significant Filipino-American community in the United States, as well as the Philippines’ strategic location in the South China Sea,” said the report, which emphasized the Philippines’ geographic significance by noting that “if an adversary can coerce or easily penetrate the Philippine archipelago, Japan and Taiwan are easily flanked.”

With the Marcos election, the U.S. “should seek to reinvigorate this critical alliance and set it on firmer footing,” the report said.

Analysts say Mr. Marcos’ mandate offers an opportunity to rethink his country’s foreign policy orientation.

“The Marcos administration should assess and consider the current regional landscape to effectively redirect the country’s foreign policy,” said Victor Andres C. Manhit, who heads the Philippines-based Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies.

“Maritime security, economic diplomacy, and multilateral cooperation with like-minded states such as Japan, Australia, and the European Union are areas that need to be prioritized,” Mr. Manhit wrote recently in the Manilabased publication BusinessWorld.

Filipino trade with China has increased over the past decade, but unlike many East Asian economies, the United States remains the Philippines’ top economic partner.

But the U.S.-Philippines bilateral alliance was widely seen to have faltered during the Duterte years because of the outgoing president’s brutal and widely criticized anti-drug operations that resulted in widespread extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses, as well as Mr. Duterte’s outspoken attempts to cozy up to both China and Russia while at times openly railing against the United States.

Mr. Marcos has said he would maintain the country’s military alliance with the U.S., but the relationship is complicated by American backing of the administrations that took power after his father was deposed.

Mr. Marcos Sr. was ousted in 1986 after millions of people took to the streets, forcing an end to his corrupt dictatorship and a return to democracy. But the election of Mr. Duterte as president in 2016 marked a return of the strongman-type leader, which voters have now apparently endorsed with Mr. Marcos Jr.

The United States has a long history with the Philippines, which was an American colony for most of the early 20th century before gaining independence in 1946. Although the two have since been allies for more than 70 years, the history may grow more complicated under the new Marcos administration.

A 2011 U.S. District Court ruling in Hawaii found Mr. Marcos and his mother in contempt of an order to furnish information on assets in connection with a 1995 human rights class-action lawsuit against his father. The court fined them $353.6 million, which has never been paid and could complicate any potential travel to the United States.

Domestically, Mr. Marcos is widely expected to pick up where Mr. Duterte left off, stifling a free press and cracking down on dissent with less of the outgoing leader’s crude and brash style, while ending attempts to recover some of the billions of dollars his father pilfered from the state coffers.

But a return to the hard-line rule of his father, who declared martial law for much of his rule, is not likely, said Julio Teehankee, a political science professor at Manila’s De La Salle University.

“He does not have the courage or the brilliance, or even the ruthlessness, to become a dictator, so I think what we will see is a form of authoritarian-lite or Marcos-lite,” Mr. Teehankee told The Associated Press in May.

[Crafty_Dog]

second

Repealing China tariffs would only empower them

The U.S. would resume the loss of jobs and capital to PRC

By Michael Faulkender and Steve Yates

President Biden is considering the cancellation of former President Donald Trump’s successful China tariffs, ostensibly to mitigate the worst inflation the U.S. has faced in 40 years. Gas prices have more than doubled under Mr. Biden’s tenure, reaching a record $5 per gallon nationwide average in recent weeks.

Rather than taking responsibility for the excessive stimulus caused by his American Rescue Plan Act and owning the anti-energy policies that have generated these crushing gas prices, Mr. Biden seeks to blame Mr. Trump’s China tariffs.

Eliminating tariffs imposed on China would have a minuscule effect on inflation while emboldening yet another autocrat, as it would represent a unilateral concession to the Communist Chinese government. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo confirmed that Mr. Biden has personally asked her to explore potential moves on the issue.

The People’s Republic of China is the premier threat to U.S. national security and a menace to its neighbors.

It remains Beijing’s official policy to “reunify” with Taiwan. China’s conquest of Taiwan, home to 92% of the world’s production capacity for the advanced semiconductors that make modern life possible, would give it a commanding position over the indispensable sea trade lanes in East Asia and would be a disaster for the United States.

The Chinese Communist Party supports the repeal of the Trump tariffs because they know it would advantage them. The tariffs established credible deterrence in our relationship with China for the first time in decades.

They brought the Chinese Communist Party to the table for an unprecedented “Phase 1” trade deal in 2020, aimed at establishing fair and reciprocal trade.

It required major structural changes by China in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, expanding trade and dispute resolution. At least one member of the Biden administration, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai recognizes the risk, saying, “Lifting tariffs now would cost the U.S. leverage at the negotiating table with the Chinese and would not do much to combat inflation.”

Mr. Trump imposed these tariffs to address one of the most important threats to American prosperity: the unequal and predatory trade practices of the People’s Republic of China. Before Mr. Trump’s tariffs were implemented in 2018, China’s intellectual property theft cost the United States an estimated $225 billion to $600 billion per year, and our trade deficit with China reached $418 billion. Both of these contributed to a hollowing out of America’s manufacturing base, costing 3.7 million American jobs between 2001 and 2018.

As a result of Mr. Trump’s America First economic policies, more than 500,000 manufacturing jobs returned to U.S. shores between Mr. Trump’s November 2016 election and February 2020.

There is no proof China tariffs signifi cantly increased inflation. From 2018 to 2020, inflation in the U.S. averaged 1.8%. Under Mr. Biden, the Consumer Price Index rose more than 7.5% in 2021 and could well reach 8.0% inflation this year. Removing all of Mr. Trump’s tariffs may lower inflation by a paltry 0.26%, according to a recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Rather than the present inflation crisis arising from Mr. Trump’s China policy, it is overwhelmingly due to policies that Mr. Biden has endorsed or enacted himself. A March 2022 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that the U.S. inflation rate has grown higher and more rapidly than in other advanced economies since Mr. Biden took office in early 2021 due to “direct fiscal support introduced to counteract the economic devastation caused by the pandemic.” The same study shows a massive spike in U.S. disposable income corresponding to the ARP, which injected trillions of dollars of direct assistance into consumers’ pockets and may explain about three percentage points of the inflation realized by early 2022.

A successful “America First” economic policy means empowering hardworking American citizens to strengthen our economy by pursuing their own personal prosperity, free from China’s economic manipulation. The way to ensure this is a free — and fair — foreign trade policy that renews American industry, jobs, and competitiveness.

The removal of the Trump-era China tariffs would result in a minuscule impact on inflation, at best, and would resume the leakage of jobs and capital to China that characterized the pre-Trump era while bolstering the corrupt and authoritarian CCP regime.

Mr. Biden’s misguided and desperate bid for temporary popularity must not take precedence over preserving a dynamic economic strategy that has successfully stymied our chief geopolitical rival.

Michael Faulkender is a former assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Steve Yates is a former deputy assistant to Vice President Dick Cheney for National Security Affairs and is currently a senior fellow and chair for the China Policy Initiative at America First Policy Institute.

[G M]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education/story/2022-07-08/uc-san-diego-expert-abe-assassination?_amp=true

China doing battlefield prep?

[G M]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education/story/2022-07-08/uc-san-diego-expert-abe-assassination?_amp=true

China doing battlefield prep?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/revealed-chatter-chinese-twitter-shinzo-abe-completing-task-posted-17-hours-shinzo-abe-assassination/

[ya]

Interesting article on China Taiwan
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/taiwan

[G M]

https://michaelyon.locals.com/post/2432216/china-collapsing

I take everything cited very seriously.

[ya]

Well CDS rates are rising across the world. SriLanka has collapsed, many so called Frontier economies will collapse too. Famine could come to Africa, India has restricted wheat exports. All we need is Putin to shut oil/gas to Europe and if they run out of heat, things could get interesting.