2024

[Crafty_Dog]

I did not think of those things.

I like the way you think, very astute analysis there.

[ccp]

Waters had another take tonight on the WP poll

it is Bezos' WP going after Biden due to the FTC going after tech company monopolies

undoubtably in conjunction with his slump in the polls.

very possible too.

[DougMacG]

ABC News/WashPost: Trump 52, Biden 42 | NBC News: Trump 46, Biden 46

Let me guess, both polls have an error of + - 3%.

Is the truth somewhere in between?

The Wash Post poll has Biden approval at 37%.  Hard to hide the fact that won't get him reelected.

Either way, it is still Sept 2023.  Things change

[DougMacG]

Deeper in that poll (Washington Post), 30% 'approve' of Biden's handling of the economy.  That is about as low as you can go in a poll everyone knows will be jumped on for partisan advantage.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/09/abc-nbc-polls-show-the-economy-hurts-biden-more-than-age.html?utm_source=msn&utm_medium=f1&utm_campaign=feed-part

Worse yet, if you remove Slow Joe from that equation, what would any of the others do differently, Kamala, Gavin, et al.  Joe merely governed right down the (Left wing) party line signing every bill Nancy put on his desk and every executive order his Obama holdover advisers put on his desk.  All with 100% support of his (dying) party.

He killed a pipeline in his first minute in office, banned ANWR (again), made sure every new oil or gas investment would be worthless, thus not made.  (The fruit of those investments not made then can not bail him out with new oil and gas coming to market now.)  He overspent on everything by 40%(!), triggered the tripling of our debt cost, destroyed the housing industry, drained the strategic petroleum reserve to (almost) win the midterm (sorry, can't drain it twice), left arsenal and Americans in Afghanistan and set off the never ending war in Ukraine with his world renowned weakness.  (Sending them weapons made for our security  He isn't replacing.)  And he blew up the Nord stream, or at least said he would and it happened.

He lost the support of the 18 to 35 voters - by a wide margin.

Jim Clyburn who swung the nomination to Biden famously said "all of us knew...". Knew what?  These policies would have these results.

Tell me how you undo all that between now and the election - without instantly changing course and adopting our policies, which they will never do.

[Crafty_Dog]

In recent days we have seen Newsom make moves to appear reasonable.  In the context of the WaPo poll and related developments susch as the debate in late November with DeSantis, it seems clear to me that the play for him to replace Kommiela or Magoo is underway.

[DougMacG]

In recent days we have seen Newsom make moves to appear reasonable.  In the context of the WaPo poll and related developments susch as the debate in late November with DeSantis, it seems clear to me that the play for him to replace Kommiela or Magoo is underway.

Agreed.  For what little I know about Newsom, it seems he is the only one able and inclined to pull it off, and is making moves to do that.  The debate, if it happens, will be telling.

My question, way ahead of its time, who would he pick as a running mate if he is supposed to replace both Biden and Harris?

Someone just as far Left as Gavin with immense Washington and foreign policy experience and instant credibility that could make it a 16 year plan.  Who could that be?  It's kind of a shallow bench.

[Crafty_Dog]

A)  One option is that Magoo replaces Harris with him.  How do we think this plays out?

B) If the choice is Trump vs. Newsom, how do we think this plays out?

[DougMacG]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nysun.com%2Farticle%2Fwill-nikki-haley-break-out-of-the-republican-primary-pack-in-wednesdays-gop-debate-and-is-this-ron-desantis-last-chance

[DougMacG]

A)  One option is that Magoo replaces Harris with him.  How do we think this plays out?

B) If the choice is Trump vs. Newsom, how do we think this plays out?

Don't know but,

A. If I were GN I wouldn't leave the Governor job for VP and very bad vibe for the administration to single out Kamala as the problem.  What did she do wrong, miss a funeral?  She isn't the one who didn't solve the border. They didn't want it solved.  She didn't drive up gas prices and inflation, all of them did.

B. This scenario very likely at this point, Newsom vs. Trump.  Earlier I thought changing the Dem candidate to a younger Governor would change the R race, but right now only Trump can take down Trump. (The latest court order is interesting.)

Newsom is a Biden supporter.  He would most likely get in timed with Biden stepping out, could be just after the first of the year.  They are likely looking at the latest date to do that because of the lame duck thing, also Biden's legal troubles.  The Nov 30 debate is likely timed to jumpstart the public discussion of his candidacy.

It could be that all but Joe (and Jill?) are already on board with the switch out. When it happens, either Kamala endorses Newsom or jumps in herself - without backing or support of the cabal and no chance of winning, so she bows out as the team player.  At the August(?) convention he picks someone else as running mate because of the same state issue.

Assume indicted or convicted Trump is the R nominee, the race is Trump v Newsom from Jan through Nov with lame duck sitting quietly in Delaware.  How that changes the race is that Trump has to get focused on policy differences instead of hoping Joe falls on the podium.  By November that could favor Republicans given Dems have no way out of the current mess without adopting better policies, Republican policies.  )
Looks like Newsom is already making the case for more Republican policies:
https://youtu.be/agzDslqvNXM?si=Ff5KaYDaLIAbGenE

This guy is slick.  I wonder how DeSantis gets a word in, even with Hannity's help.  He's all over the map.

Newsom is taking a debate he doesn't have to and Trump is ducking debates he should be in.  Bad sign.

Also Newsom in the race might slow the "no labels" and other not-Trump choices that would otherwise hurt Dems.

Newsom certainly can unite Democrats, but he cannot fully untie himself from the disastrous Biden record.  Lowest black unemployment etc, bullsh*t, people know that happened under Trump - and they work but can't afford gas.  $6 in LA today.  By November, a median income household can buy half of a median priced home.  Spin THAT.  And the debt cost is 3 times what it was 4 years ago.

Strangest year in politics is ahead of us.
----------------
Question for the debate tonight, can someone, DeSantis or Haley, emerge as a possible next Reagan, rather than as one of the seven dwarfs soon forgotten.

[Crafty_Dog]

"What did she do wrong, miss a funeral?"

She persuaded the entire political spectrum that she is a fg moron, totally unsuited for the Presidency.

Newsom is young, good looking and slick and as such would be a powerful symbol of moving beyond the gerontocracy.  Should he be the VP pick, then Joe could announce him at the convention.  This would solve a lot of the timing problems concerning the chattering class at present having to do with deadlines.   Newsom has shown steadfast loyalty to Magoo by promising not to run if Magoo is; this should make is easier for Magoo to throw the Kackling Kommie off the bus.

The whole country would get the message-- and Trump haters would have an excuse to vote Dem because Magoo could and likely would be 25th Amendmented.

[Crafty_Dog]

The Real Donald Trump Live on Truth Social
Here’s what voters can look forward to if he’s nominated again.
By
The Editorial Board
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Sept. 26, 2023 6:29 pm ET




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Former President Donald Trump’s Truth Social profile. PHOTO: TAIDGH BARRON/ZUMA PRESS
Donald Trump suggested the other day that Gen. Mark Milley, the nation’s highest military officer, deserves execution—as in death. He said NBC should be investigated for treason and that the FBI should raid the homes of Senate Democrats. Then he accused President Biden of being manipulated by “the Fascists in the White House.”

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If Republicans missed these remarks, they must not be following Mr. Trump’s feed on Truth Social, his media site. But reading him there is the way to get a direct mind-meld with Mr. Trump’s true social and political self.

Here was part of Mr. Trump’s send-off for Mr. Milley, who’s finishing his tenure as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs: “This guy turned out to be a Woke train wreck who, if the Fake News reporting is correct, was actually dealing with China to give them a heads up on the thinking of the President of the United States. This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!”

We realize no one is supposed to take Mr. Trump’s words seriously, but what if some crank does and decides to shoot Gen. Milley in his retirement?

How about a campaign pledge to abridge the First Amendment? Mr. Trump: “Comcast, with its one-side and vicious coverage by NBC NEWS, and in particular MSNBC, often and correctly referred to as MSDNC (Democrat National Committee!), should be investigated for its ‘Country Threatening Treason.’ . . . I say up front, openly, and proudly, that when I WIN the Presidency of the United States, they and others of the LameStream Media will be thoroughly scrutinized for their knowingly dishonest and corrupt coverage.”

Mr. Trump also uses Truth Social to amplify unhinged posts from others, including one recently calling the 2021 Capitol riot a “Fedsurrection,” involving Antifa leftists in MAGA disguise, and “the Deep State coordinated their actions through proxies.” Mr. Trump or his social-media team hit the button to “retruth” this lunacy to his millions of followers.

Some Republicans are feeling giddy these days because Mr. Biden is down in the polls, losing head-to-head even against Mr. Trump. But many voters may have forgotten what it was like to hear from, and live with, Mr. Trump day after day. As President, Mr. Biden gets more attention now, and Mr. Trump is ducking the GOP presidential debates.

But if Mr. Trump is nominated again, his every word will get attention. That’s the baggage Republicans will carry—and the reason Democrats think even Mr. Biden can win.

[DougMacG]

Looks like I won't get to see this one either. I read and heard enough clips to get the gist of it.  The format is terrible and virtually unwatchable.  It should be a showcase of why Dem policies suck for this country, not a food fight of Republicans attacking each other.

10 people on stage all trying to advance themselves (especially the moderators) more so than fix the country.  The field needs to narrow, and narrow to the right ones, soon!

That said, word is DeSantis looked and sounded Presidential and Nikki Haley showed plenty of fight.  The rest I see as past their expiration date for this cycle..

VDH says the party needs to unite behind one candidate and one agenda.

Mike Pence would have been a fine President in normal times but cannot unite us now.  Chris Christie also cannot  with his hatred for half of them.  Vivek and Bergum are too new to the scene to break out.  Second try at a first impression?  I don't think so.  That leaves the two aforementioned plus Trump.

My solution:  DeSantis and Haley join forces to take on each other.  So what if it's called a race for second place.  Pick their own moderator.  Pick their own topics.  Each get 75 seconds uninterrupted to make their case with minimalist moderating.  Invite DT and make it 3.  Take charge of this process instead of being somebody else's puppet on stage ("let's see a show of hands", "write a name on the card to vote off the island").  The point is to build on each other's points and presentation on why we need to put the current path in the rear view mirror, not tear each other down.

Run a series of great debates and in the end, one drops out to leave the strongest challenge to the frontrunner in the primaries.  In the end, unite.

One of the biggest hits on Trump's one term Presidency was that he sucked in his first debate with Biden.  No one calls him out on that.  Also, he governed (bloviated) in a way that aimed at winning a squeaker in the electoral college instead trying to win the country with large, impossible to cheat or challenge, majorities.

We all know people who will never vote for Trump for reasons beyond his economic and foreign policies.

As VDH pointed out (famous people caught reading the forum), we need a candidate and agenda that can win 55% of the vote, not 48, 49 or worse.  We are not on track to doing that.

[DougMacG]

Here we go with more lousy national polling:
Biden 45, Trump 40
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4225778-biden-tops-trump-by-5-points-in-new-survey/amp/

Just 15 points different than the previous, all with "margin of error 3%"?

Something like six states matter if this is a close election, not how many people you can find in California, Illinois and New York.  And we know Trump can't win Georgia, so the question becomes can he win the other five by large margins or not.

If not, we need to try someone else.

[Crafty_Dog]

Good assessment Doug.

[ccp]

funny how one WP poll came out with Trump beating Biden by 10 points JUST PRIOR TO THE DEBATE.

What a coincidence!   I thought it was purposeful BS to throw a wrench into the debate.

at least that poll was not brought up during the debate though Dana had to ask the candidates something akin to what is your path to making up Trump's huge lead .


Ron did very well especially at the end.
Nikki kicked Vivek (pronounced Vi vake "like cake" as per Vivek when asked by Bill O'Reilly who politely asked him how does he pronounce his name.

Tim did better but got into a bit too much fighting with Nikki and Vivek.

Bergum is very good but agree with Doug - he is not know enough and beyond his take on energy and China ( both of which he is excellent on ) we never learn anything else about him.

Chris was his usual self - good debater good points on DJT but no chance or appeal anymore.
His day is long gone.

The Univision moderately if I recall mostly pressed the illegal card DACA , and I think Tim and maybe Vivek push to get rid of birth citizenship whose purpose was for slaves NOT for illegals coming in or pregnant visitors coming over to give birth in a US hospital.

AGREE WITH DOUG.
 personally I would like to see contenders narrow down to the Ron and Nikki

[Crafty_Dog]

Agree that Bergum surprised to the upside, but he is going nowhere.

Random points:

Nikki slimed Ron with accusation he was against fracking-- he was against off-shore on the coast-- given role of tourism for Florida this strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

Generally I thought Ron did well, but he did continue to embrace hard line Life position instead of anti-third trimester/none of Fed's business.

Vivek polished up his act from last time, but even as I like some things he says A LOT, he strikes me as a slickster.  Seems like Nikki nailed him pretty hard on his Chinese connections and the inconsistencies with his current verbiage.

Tim-- good man, nice man, loved his dialing in the blame on LBJ and the Great Society, but utterly lacks frame of mind of chief executive.

Pence:  A good and decent man with a resume well suited for the Presidency, but simply does not arouse support.

Chris-- as usual.

I thought the moderators were hideously weak-- somebody should have brought a fog horn or a whistle.  The cross talk brought down the dignity of the event quite a bit.  What a snide condescending ___ the Univision woman was.

ALL OF THEM failed to dial in the central points:

a) How do each of them stack up against Biden?  Trump purportedly up 10, but IIRC same poll had Nikki up 6 and DeSantis close to that; and

b) the Dems have timed the trials for the election.  Candidate Trump represents a commitment without knowledge of all the facts and a high potential for deceptive ambush attacks-- just like last time.

PS: Newsom is seriously slippery.

[DougMacG]

Agreed.  Two other observations subject to correction since I saw clips out of context.

Haley said,
(Wash Post). Her skewering of Ramaswamy offered one of the most memorable lines of the evening.

“Honestly, every time I hear you I feel a little bit dumber,” she said.

(Doug) I think this followed him dodging the question on tic toc, saying he needed to reach young people to win the election.

Vivek is a smart guy.  I would note this statement was over the top.

Second, Chris Christie made a point about Donald Trump ducking the debates.  Said if he kept doing it they would all have to call him Donald Duck.

That's not very funny, not very clever, plus he is trying to tell us how bad Trump is by being like Trump.  Tacky.

Given both of those points, DeSantis won the debate and leads the race for second place.

Two other points, somebody (Christy?) Said the current president was sleeping with a teacher's union member (Jill Biden).  Cheap insult.  Later Mike Pence said he had been sleeping with a teacher for 35 years.  Where was the filter on saying that?  We already know Pence is the world's best family man, self-awarded.
-------------
Second place (for DeSantis)is relevant in this situation with two front runners pushing 80, one facing corruption charges and the other facing 5 or more big court cases even if they are bs.  Deep bench is good.

The slickness of Newsom will make a contest of it, but what if he is just too slick for the swing states, and too Californian.  Who is their backup quarterback, Butti?

[DougMacG]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/09/28/who_really_won_the_gop_candidates_debate.html

[DougMacG]

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/

Talk about the stupid party, they were morons to not treat him better. He was no threat to win a primary.

They refused secret Service protection for him, a Kennedy running for President.
---------
Update. Oops:
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2023/09/29/rfk-jrs-independent-run-is-why-republicans-lose-n2164489

[Crafty_Dog]

Reps and independents who cannot bring themselves to vote for Trump , , ,

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/09/democrats-2024-plan-is-working-to-perfection/?bypass_key=MzhhdFBOajhjeWVhZEpFblBVcjN1Zz09OjpRMUoxWmtGb2EyMVNhaXN6SzNscWFURnRMekpGUVQwOQ%3D%3D

[ccp]

Agee with AM

The LEFT has a pincer attack on the Right

Attack Trump daily with media warfare, lawfare, etc.  Go after his money, his family, all those that worked with him, bribe (book deals , CNN gigs etc.) and extort (indict them for something to get plea deal with stipulation they turn on Trump ) 
and at the same time dupe the Right into nominating him and shut off any other candidates.

It does not help we have Trump now virtually every day tweeting :
this person should be executed
this person should be shot
that person(s) e should be shot killed

he sounds more and more desperate/unhinged  and despotic every day

yes this is frustrating hat tip to AM! 
I agree with these sentiments sometimes ( like shooting people at the border, would fix the problem fast but I admit that would be nuts - unless it was against cartels )

[Crafty_Dog]

https://resistthemainstream.com/nikki-haley-responds-to-trump-teams-birdcage-gift/?utm_source=newsletter2

[DougMacG]

I don't understand why the new Trump is so mean to his Republican rivals, just like the old Trump. He shouldn't treat Democrats that way, much less his own.

[ccp]

" the new Trump "

exactly   

where did I hear that Trump has toned it down?
I think a guest on O'Reilly........

like the song

"the new Trump , just like the old Trump"

or meet the "real Hillary' campaign attempted
or getting to know the real Hillary ......

[Crafty_Dog]

Biden-Newsom vs. Trump-____

Who wins?

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/newsom-repeals-california-law-prohibiting-doctors-from-sharing-unapproved-covid-information/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=breaking&utm_campaign=newstrack&utm_term=32900689

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwYaV-Cg5ws

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rnc-issues-a-warning-to-chris-christie-and-vivek-ramaswamy-about-fox-news/ar-AA1hDED1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6f753f83dc094a27866d73f6667aab1f&ei=25#image=1

[DougMacG]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rnc-issues-a-warning-to-chris-christie-and-vivek-ramaswamy-about-fox-news/ar-AA1hDED1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6f753f83dc094a27866d73f6667aab1f&ei=25#image=1

Doesn't that restriction violate a couple of key freedoms?

Are we not the party of liberty?

Management of these debates has been terrible.

[ccp]

My impression when I read RNC trying to prohibit debate between Vivek and Christie was negative too.
Rhonda McDaniel seems to be messing up again. I don't have faith in her.

" Management of these debates has been terrible. "

Agree.

I thought it good they limited the debates away from CNN and the other MSM networks whose sole purpose would be to make the candidates look bad.
Yet, we get a rabid enemy partisan Univision "moderator" in the second debate who did everything she could to piss off the debaters and the viewers with gross extreme enemy partisan views about such topic as illegals etc.

Something is very wrong with the formats as well; such as asking questions  but then allowing only 1 to 3 candidates to even answer each one stimulating others to interrupt so they can give their answer.......

We don't really learn enough from the candidates this way
Voting for the best candidate need not be for the one who has the best canned speech, or the best one line zinger. 

How does each feel about a variety of issues , what is their overall plan etc.

[Crafty_Dog]

Kelly includes a number of cheap shots in here, but plenty of them sound plausible.  Stuff like this is culmulatively damaging.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/god-help-us-john-kelly-confirms-trump-mocked-veterans-during-arlington-memorial-service/amp/

The list of people who used to work for Trump but now loathe him is long.  Plenty of them are not worthy of respect, but a pattern like that speaks for itself.

[ccp]

I think you are right.

Sadly, I believe Kelly over Trump on this.
John does not strike me as the type of person who would make this up based on his history of service and we all can imagine Trump saying all these things in a nanosecond.

That all said, nothing has stopped MAGA's support of Trump.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/haley-surges-past-desantis-in-post-debate-new-hampshire-primary-poll/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=breaking&utm_campaign=newstrack&utm_term=32921146

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpqz8j5sINo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYN04UeLcA0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXUG_xsjNwc

[ccp]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/09/how_trump_beats_michelle_obama_in_2024.html

sounds quite logical and pieces fit together

will she announce prior to SC Dem Primary?

The new calendar puts South Carolina first on Feb. 3, 2024

Agree the choice of Chicago ad Democrat Convertion does sound like a set up for her.

[ccp]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/10/05/hillary_clinton_there_needs_to_be_a_formal_deprogramming_of_the_trump_cult_members.html

an Amanpour no less 

[DougMacG]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/10/05/hillary_clinton_there_needs_to_be_a_formal_deprogramming_of_the_trump_cult_members.html

Upside down logic, people who advocate more Liberty for the people and more power back to the States are authoritarians?

And this very bizarre admission of guilt:

"And we have to just be smarter about how we are trying to empower the right people inside the Republican party."

(Doug) She's talking about her people, the MSM, elevating Trump in the Republican 2016 nomination race.

And now her people, the prosecutors in New York, Atlanta, DC, are elevating Trump again with their unprecedented prosecution persecution.

And now they're doing it again with the Kevin McCarthy ouster, likely to lead to a harder line Republican House leader.

WHY ARE DEMOCRATS INVOLVED WITH PICKING REPUBLICAN LEADERS?

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/rfk-jr-independent-campaign-00120607

[DougMacG]

What one liberal thinks:
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4235818-the-trump-collapse-is-coming-and-hes-taking-biden-down-with-him/

Trump's legal troubles will catch up with him, and his mouth,. He will tank and someone else will be the nominee,. Biden and Trump need each other, and Biden will get replaced too.

I don't agree.  I think Biden will tank first, already has. If Biden leaves the ticket (and Trump stumbles in his legal troubles) the dynamic for Trump changes.

One thing we can all agree on, danger ahead for both parties.

[DougMacG]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/rfk-jr-independent-campaign-00120607

'Conventional wisdom' at this moment is Bobby Jr takes more from Trump than from Biden.  I don't buy that, (even the premise it will be Trump and Biden).

Let's assume RFK is a liberal Democrat.  The question of vaccine is fading further into the rear view mirror and other issues rise. Thinking of disgruntled Republicans, do you see Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney or Bill Kristol supporting a liberal Democrat?  I don't. But an anti-war Democrat might.

What happened to the so called, no labels people?  Quiet lately.  Moderate Democrats I know would take a Manchin over any far left choice and be tempted over a bumbling Biden no longer moderate.

Then you have the green choice.

Trump is thinking, the more choices the better.  He has hard core support.  Biden doesn't.

[Crafty_Dog]

RFK was on Sean last night and Sean pressed him with a very long list of lefty-prog-Dem things that RFK had said.  For example, "You called the NRA 'terrorist'.  Do you still think that?"  RFK was weak, whiny, and evasive in response.  Sean offered to have him come back to discuss things more fully.  I did not catch RFK accepting.

[DougMacG]

Right.  Republicans don't think the NRA is terrorist. Republicans think terrorists are terrorists.  "RFK was weak, whiny, and evasive in response." Yes.  He can't energize both sides.

Reminds me in a different way of Michelle O, so popular because she is non-political.  Have her stand up there for months and defend 12 years of Obama Biden policies and resultsand hurl the insults at Republicans that they all find necessary., then see if she stays above the political fray.

RFK is also weak in his voice, a medical condition no fault of his own, and he will be 70 at election time, not that old to us, but past the generally accepted retirement age. Is that  what  young voters want to replace Joe Biden with?  Bobby Kennedy, in 1968 was young and vibrant. Barack Obama's sudden rise to fame was about being young and exciting and vibrant.
 "Clean and articulate." Bill Clinton as well. Donald Trump is old but his demeanor is young and vibrant. Joe Biden OTOH won his election from his basement barely able to speak.

My take is that 1% might favor RFK Jr for his long held anti-vax views and the rest think they are getting someone exciting and they're not.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/11/donald-trump-trounces-joe-biden-michigan-michigan-poll/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=29912&pnespid=rLhtET5AO.5B1ffE.G3kCIuMo0_.D5JtJ_.ixLZ1tANmBEVZpImpLJa0NQOoO9ywi1WzimJ.

20% for Anyone Else

[Body-by-Guinness]

The Electoral College map at the bottom of this piece will, if true, inspire a lot of “Progressive” bed wetting:

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/what-happens-if-both-newsweek-and?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&fbclid=IwAR0hfeA8C3xyWXOULO3kSOyS5iYdum0roYOCs-MmaAkk5jr2BPNvooyZLIw

[Crafty_Dog]

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Donald Trump’s Israeli War Insight
He attacks Netanyahu in a crisis because of old personal grudges.
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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: CRISTOBAL HERRERA-ULASHKEVICH/SHUTTERSTOCK
The front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination for some reason used the words “smart” and “Hezbollah” in the same sentence on Wednesday night. Whatever Donald Trump meant to convey, Republicans might look at the sparks going up around the world as they decide whether to sign up for four more years of this strategic insight.

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“Two nights ago I read all of Biden’s security people, can you imagine, national defense people,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday night in West Palm Beach. “And they said ‘Gee, I hope Hezbollah doesn’t attack from the north. Because that’s the most vulnerable spot.’ And I said, wait a minute, you know Hezbollah is very smart. They’re all very smart. The press doesn’t like when they say, you know. I said that President Xi of China, 1.4 billion people, he controls it with an iron fist. I said he’s a very smart man. They killed me the next day. I said he was smart. What am I gonna say?”

We’ll leave it to Trump partisans to explain that soliloquy, and the speech included some hardy perennials about rigged elections and this one about Vladimir Putin: “I got along with him very good. You know, I actually got along with the tough guys the best.”

Perhaps Mr. Trump’s most revealing comments were about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally he is supposed to be friendly with. In his rambling, Mr. Trump brought up that the Israeli leader declined to participate in the 2020 U.S. operation to kill Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down.”

Mr. Netanyahu is the political leader of America’s closest friend in the Middle East, which is staring down the worst security crisis in 50 years. At least 27 Americans are dead and more are missing. But Mr. Trump can’t separate this from his personal grievances.

He’s also mad because Mr. Netanyahu publicly acknowledged that President Biden won the 2020 election, as if a foreign leader could say anything else. “He was very early—like earlier than most. I haven’t spoken to him since. F— him,” he told a writer for Axios.

For once Mr. Trump’s competition for the GOP presidential nomination is criticizing him. It’s “absurd that anyone, much less someone running for President, would choose now to attack our friend and ally, Israel,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said in a post on Twitter. Vice President Mike Pence also hit Mr. Trump’s comments.

Mr. Trump has an impressive record of support for Israel that he could stick to touting. This includes moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, after other Presidents promised but failed to deliver. And there are the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab states that Mr. Biden has supported and has been trying to extend to Saudi Arabia.

But Mr. Trump can’t help himself from making everything about himself. That’s the same way he handled the Covid crisis, and it’s what voters would get in a second Trump term in much more dangerous world.

[Crafty_Dog]

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713505170875654623

[ccp]

no access

[Crafty_Dog]

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713556354470666250

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/2016-republican-rival-endorses-trump-for-president-5511562?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2023-10-17-2&src_cmp=breaking-2023-10-17-2&utm_medium=email&cta_utm_source=News&est=PyHtpHKA7rsAJ6p3axsi3CJSbaInB7q4hjsf9%2Fe68CZ1Uk3WiHEJKHMK2jvfb2KJN4f%2F

[DougMacG]

https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/insight/2023/10/15/salena-zito-voters-biden-trump-age-fitness-presidency/stories/202310150038

(She talks with real voters in Pennsylvania)
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(Doug) RCP polls show Trump leads by 40 or 50 for the R nomination but the betting odds for that are only 70%.  For some reason, with 30% odds, the race for second place is relevant.

I think the odds Biden will be out are closer to 100%.  (But I've been wrong, often)

[ccp]

I know a Republican who kept writing in Bobby Jindal's name the past 2 elections rather then vote for Trump.

Now Bobby Jindal backs Trump.

Maybe now that person will vote Trump with a clothespin on the nose.

(like me)

We are now in a war in the Middle East - one of the historical hypothetical scenerios that could lead to WW III.

Trump must be devastated he is not the center of attention.