2024

[Crafty_Dog]

https://notthebee.com/article/please-enjoy-these-gop-debate-highlights-of-megyn-kelly-ending-chris-christie-and-vivek-ending-nikki-haley?utm_source=Not+The+Bee+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=12072023

I had forgotten how VR had raped Nikki on failure to name the three provinces.  The clip here nicely captures the terrified expression on her face.

[ccp]

vivake was not the first to say that .  I did as well as GM did.   

that said I don't read too much into it.

her point is we can't give an inch to Putin because he and the world will take more.
so she doesn't know the russian provinces by heart and vivake memorized them prior to the debate.

I have thought the whole thing was boderline questionable whether we should be there much at all.
though I sort of come down on side it is better we are.

Didn't Christie say he would be willing to send US troops there? or was it Taiwan?

[Crafty_Dog]

I don't disagree-- but in the Entertainment Food Fight dimension of all this, IMHO it was a big score.

[Crafty_Dog]

The Real Trump Risk for Republicans
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are warning the GOP that a second term will fail.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Dec. 7, 2023 5:53 pm ET


The pundits are saying that Donald Trump emerged unscathed from Wednesday night’s debate because only Chris Christie attacked him as a would-be dictator. But that misses something important about what happened on stage. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis warned GOP voters that Mr. Trump is likely to fail in a second term and explained why—and the best evidence is the record of his first term.

Mr. Christie chided his Republican rivals for failing to take on the former President directly, which is true to some extent. But the former New Jersey Governor’s warnings that Mr. Trump is a threat to the republic won’t persuade GOP voters who remember Democrats saying the same in 2016.

The more potent attacks during the debate were on his record as President. Ms. Haley gamely noted that he added $9 trillion to the national debt in four years, “and we’re all paying the price of that.” Mr. Trump spent like a Democrat on domestic programs, and there’s little reason to think he would show spending restraint during a second term.

He showed no resistance to the $2 trillion Covid blowout in March 2020. He tapped Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funds to extend the enhanced unemployment benefits during the summer of 2020 after they had lapsed. He even complained that Congress’s $900 billion Covid spending bill in December 2020 was too stingy.

Mr. Trump also pushed Republicans to increase the bill’s $600 stimulus checks for each adult and child to $2,000, which Democrats then embraced. Democratic candidates in the two Georgia Senate runoffs campaigned on passing a bigger pandemic spending bill if the party won control of Congress, which they did. The $6 trillion in Covid relief fueled the runaway inflation.

Mr. Trump’s successes on judges, tax reform and deregulation were based on conventional conservative ideas that were teed up for him. Former Reps. Kevin Brady and Paul Ryan and Sen. Pat Toomey midwifed the 2017 tax reform. Mr. Trump nearly blew up the legislation toward the end when he reportedly dallied with Steve Bannon’s recommendation to raise the top marginal tax rate to 44%.

The Federalist Society gave Mr. Trump originalist judicial nominees, which Mitch McConnell made sure were confirmed. Deregulation happened thanks to Mike Pence’s guidance and nominees like Neomi Rao at the White House budget office. Those people and others like them aren’t coming back for a second Trump term. Instead the country will get Mr. Bannon and immigration svengali Stephen Miller.

Mr. Trump was far less successful on his signature issues of immigration and trade. As Mr. Christie pointed out during the debate, his tariffs didn’t change Chinese behavior but did hurt growth and American consumers. Nor did Mr. Trump solve the immigration issue or build the border wall he promised, as Mr. DeSantis noted.

Shortly after signing off on a draft bipartisan immigration compromise in Congress that would have increased border security, he went on Fox News and scuttled it. His positions on issues changed by the hour depending on whom he had last consulted. His legislative failure on immigration made it possible for Mr. Biden to use executive discretion to open the southern border gates.

Mr. Trump also didn’t rebuild the military as much as he claims. The Navy had 297 ships at the end of fiscal year 2020, far fewer than his 355-ship goal or even the 308 ships called for by Barack Obama. His budgets filled some holes in operations and maintenance. But the military is increasingly stretched and U.S. weapons supply lines are inadequate.

The former President famously failed to replace ObamaCare as he promised, and he blames the late Sen. John McCain. But Mr. Trump contributed enormously by making an enemy of McCain, and he never took the time to master the policy or sell it to the public.

***
The fundamental problem that Ms. Haley identified is that chaos follows Mr. Trump wherever he goes, like the dust cloud that follows Pig-Pen in the Charlie Brown cartoon. As Ms. Haley put it, “you can’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. And that’s what Donald Trump gives us.”


We think American institutions are strong enough to contain whatever designs Mr. Trump has to abuse presidential power. The danger for Republican voters to consider is that his chaos theory of governance would result in a second term that failed to deliver on his promises and set up the left for huge gains in 2026 and 2028.

[DougMacG]

The names of those three provinces...

Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya

Geez, who didn't know that?

https://www.state.gov/reports/2022-report-on-international-religious-freedom/ukraine/russia-occupied-territories-of-ukraine/#:~:text=Ukraine-,Executive%20Summary,part%20of%20the%20Russian%20Federation.

Trump didn't know what the nuclear triad was, and won.
-----------------
Another view:

For four minutes and five seconds, Haley could not name three provinces in eastern Ukraine America’s sons and daughters would be forced to defend. Eventually, she said “Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.” That’s the wrong answer. The right answer would be Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. The only scenario in which Crimea is part of the answer is if you fantasize leading the U.S. into WWIII.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/nimarata-the-pinata/

[Crafty_Dog]

NH has been running strongly on her geopolitical chops.  VR has correctly pointed out that experience is not that same as wisdom/getting things right, and as a way of razzing and unbalancing NH hit her effectively with the gotcha in question.  She DID look rattled, and but for his adolescent insults he would have more effectively planted in voters' minds (well, the few of us who were watching on the rather minor channel question) doubt about her claims to expertise.

If I were in the mix, the point I would be making is to raise the question of how much all this came to be because of the Bidens' corruption.

[DougMacG]

This deserves comment, IMHO.

The Real Trump Risk for Republicans
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are warning the GOP that a second term will fail.
WSJ Editorial Board
...
The more potent attacks during the debate were on his record as President. Ms. Haley gamely noted that he added $9 trillion to the national debt in four years, “and we’re all paying the price of that.” Mr. Trump spent like a Democrat on domestic programs, and there’s little reason to think he would show spending restraint during a second term.

He showed no resistance to the $2 trillion Covid blowout in March 2020. He tapped Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funds to extend the enhanced unemployment benefits during the summer of 2020 after they had lapsed. He even complained that Congress’s $900 billion Covid spending bill in December 2020 was too stingy.

Mr. Trump also pushed Republicans to increase the bill’s $600 stimulus checks for each adult and child to $2,000, which Democrats then embraced. Democratic candidates in the two Georgia Senate runoffs campaigned on passing a bigger pandemic spending bill if the party won control of Congress, which they did. The $6 trillion in Covid relief fueled the runaway inflation.

  [Doug]  Trump spent too much all the way through, but in particular his good economic record is pre-covid.  He was no great President, constitutionalist or conservative during the pandemic.  Yes, part of the Bidenflation was spending started on his watch.


Mr. Trump’s successes on judges, tax reform and deregulation were based on conventional conservative ideas that were teed up for him. Former Reps. Kevin Brady and Paul Ryan and Sen. Pat Toomey midwifed the 2017 tax reform. Mr. Trump nearly blew up the legislation toward the end when he reportedly dallied with Steve Bannon’s recommendation to raise the top marginal tax rate to 44%.

The Federalist Society gave Mr. Trump originalist judicial nominees, which Mitch McConnell made sure were confirmed. Deregulation happened thanks to Mike Pence’s guidance and nominees like Neomi Rao at the White House budget office. Those people and others like them aren’t coming back for a second Trump term. Instead the country will get Mr. Bannon and immigration svengali Stephen Miller.

  [Doug]  There is no good point to be made detracting from these accomplishments because others helped.  Any Republican could have picked those Judges?  No.  You had to get elected to do that.


Mr. Trump was far less successful on his signature issues of immigration and trade. As Mr. Christie pointed out during the debate, his tariffs didn’t change Chinese behavior but did hurt growth and American consumers. Nor did Mr. Trump solve the immigration issue or build the border wall he promised, as Mr. DeSantis noted.

  [Doug]  The trade attack on China was interrupted by covid.  He took too long to start on the wall.  Recall also he was distracted, slowed and lost Congress to the phony Russian Collusion political crime.  The wall was also interrupted by not winning a second term.  Refer back to my criticism of his first HORRID debate with Joe Biden relating to him not having a second term.  He beat Jeb Bush but he didn't beat Slow Joe Biden.


Shortly after signing off on a draft bipartisan immigration compromise in Congress that would have increased border security, he went on Fox News and scuttled it. His positions on issues changed by the hour depending on whom he had last consulted. His legislative failure on immigration made it possible for Mr. Biden to use executive discretion to open the southern border gates.

  [Doug]  His unstable leadership record was a problem, but mixing "immigration reform" with border security is to play the Left's game.


Mr. Trump also didn’t rebuild the military as much as he claims. The Navy had 297 ships at the end of fiscal year 2020, far fewer than his 355-ship goal or even the 308 ships called for by Barack Obama. His budgets filled some holes in operations and maintenance. But the military is increasingly stretched and U.S. weapons supply lines are inadequate.

The former President famously failed to replace ObamaCare as he promised, and he blames the late Sen. John McCain. But Mr. Trump contributed enormously by making an enemy of McCain, and he never took the time to master the policy or sell it to the public.

  [Doug]  Fair points.  Hard to rebuild the military with the losing of Congress.  Disgraceful the way he treated McCain, and I'm no fan of his.  McCain died and he still couldn't show respect.  His fights with others on his own staff and cabinet also distracted and slowed his agenda.


The fundamental problem that Ms. Haley identified is that chaos follows Mr. Trump wherever he goes, like the dust cloud that follows Pig-Pen in the Charlie Brown cartoon. As Ms. Haley put it, “you can’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos. And that’s what Donald Trump gives us.”

[Doug]  Right.  Also what DeSantis has been pounding, Trump proved you can't do this in a lasting way in one term.  And you can't do it while distracted and you can't do it while alienating everyone around you.  The country needs a strong leader, headed in the right direction and eligible for two terms.

[DougMacG]

"raise the question of how much all this came to be because of the Bidens' corruption"


Yes.  Also the point that these enemies cowered (and waited) when Trump occupied the White House and are more emboldened now than we could have imagined. 

I can't find it but there was a cartoon of Putin on a staircase marked in years, and he attacks Crimea during Obama, steps over four Trump years and attacks Ukraine under Biden.  The graphic tells the story better than words.  Remember that Kim Jung Un crawled into a hole after getting a meeting with Trump and Iran lost Soleimani under Trump.  Then they trained and launched Gaza into Israel under Biden.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-vows-revenge-soleimani-killing-if-trump-not-put-trial-2022-01-03/

[DougMacG]

https://fox2now.com/video/watch-the-full-newsnation-gop-debate/9232911/

Here you go, Doug.
I thought it very worth the watch.
It was close to 90 minutes, I think.

Thanks ccp.  Yes I watched, mostly listened to it yesterday.  Not quite the same as live because I've already heard all the reaction to it.

All made some good and great points, but Vivek and Christie should not have been there.  Regarding those two, if a pundit were to be President,. I would take VDH and a few others ahead of Vivek.  Christie is qualified with his experience as governor, he is just not for me and really is trying to undermine what he says is his own party. 

Hey Christie, it isn't that Trump is unfit.  Trump is Trump, a different sort of fit.  It's not that he lost his marbles and too old isn't the point.  Its that he has these other attributes (mentioned recently and often) that detract from his success.  DeSantis put the age thing well, Father Time eventually catches up with you.

It isn't whether Haley knows Ukrainian provinces.  It's that she has a different view from Vivek of the threat Putin faces to us. 

Some critic (on the Left) was up in arms about DeSantis saying "man dresses" in Iraq.  Maybe he shouldn't have.  He was pointing for one thing he was there and that you couldn't tell a IED guy from a civilian without intelligence.

One more reason DeSantis couldn't call Trump unfit, he needs Trump voters, later if not now, and was actively courting them.  He said a number of ood things about Trump I thought.  But he (DeSantis) could do more to reform the FBI etc than Trump could, IMHO.  For Trump it just looks personal.  And again, that two terms thing.

Vivek made a good point about the President alone cleaning up the Executive Branch.  Detractors on the Left call that dictatorial (when Republicans do it), but the constitution calls for a singular executive.  These agencies, IRS etc are his/her responsibility.  They can spend less than they are budgeted for example and can retract rules the agencies made that never went through Congress.

[DougMacG]

Truly speaking of famous people reading the forum, I wish they, the powers that be, would read and act on ALL of it here.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/cnn-iowa-debate-will-be-a-desantis-haley-cage-match/ar-AA1lapYc

Ramiswami has seen his last debate in this race. Should drop now.  Christie is out of the Iowa debate and out of the New Hampshire debate if he drops below 10% there.

[ccp]

good deal except the CNN part.

they will skew towards Nikki.

[ccp]

and just to prove my thinking about CNN

here is the proof:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinion-the-finest-speech-ever-given-in-a-presidential-debate/ar-AA1l9oaO?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=0e0d7a88d0e649788f475d132560f26e&ei=76

[DougMacG]

and just to prove my thinking about CNN

here is the proof:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/opinion-the-finest-speech-ever-given-in-a-presidential-debate/ar-AA1l9oaO?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=0e0d7a88d0e649788f475d132560f26e&ei=76

Yes, what bologna.  Great speech and he still sits at a 0.025 market share of the 40% of the market that is Republican, and declining. 

I've seen him way more than he deserves and still have no idea what kind of President he would be.  But I'm very clear that he hates Trump, not long after he loved Trump.  And Trump didn't change.

[DougMacG]

"good deal except the CNN part.
they will skew towards Nikki."
--------------------------------
Correct but... that is the game we are playing.

Trump faced Biden, and Chris Wallace.  It was two against one.  And he whined and he interrupted and he lost.

That was a general election debate and this is for the Iowa Republican primary.  By now DeSantis knows how his market thinks and he genuinely identifies with them.  It's strange because he is a Harvard Yale guy and presumably they are hard working, humble Midwesterners, but like Crafty says, it's the American Creed thing.

He's seen woke.  He's fought woke.  He's won against woke.  Florida does not have a conservative media.  It is/was not a conservative state.  Florida went for Obama twice.  DeSantis knows how to call out a liberal narrative questioner; he does it all the time and that's part of what got him here.

If they put up that kind of thing question after question, that's a high hanging curve ball over the center of the plate for him.  If he can't hit it out of the park, he's not our guy.

Besides, I don't think Haley is liberal enough for their tastes either.  She's a hawk, wants to deport Biden's new people and promises to cut the size of government.  The Leftist moderator will want to take down both of them, and especially Trump in abstentia.  And DeSantis' latest tact has been (mostly) to defend Trump (but do it better), and there is your Republican market.  You win second place by being liked by Trumps 70% market share, not by CNN or Christie's 2.5%.

Here's where Nikki missed it.  That question about 0 to $8 million in 10 seconds, or whatever it was.  If I were her...

'Look Megyn.  I ran a business with 32 billion dollars per year in revenue for 8 years.   That's 500 times bigger than Vivek's business today.  The fact that I did not take a billion dollar salary or profit for that is called public service.  Now can we get back to who's going to bring down inflation, secure the border, shrink runaway government and lead America to rise up to the very real China threat?'

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/projects/state-fiscal-briefs/south-carolina
https://search.brave.com/search?q=Roivant+Sciences+revenues&source=web

[ccp]

'Look Megyn.  I ran a business with 32 billion dollars per year in revenue for 8 years.   That's 500 times bigger than Vivek's business today.  The fact that I did not take a billion dollar salary or profit for that is called public service.  Now can we get back to who's going to bring down inflation, secure the border, shrink runaway government and lead America to rise up to the very real China threat?'

fantastic 2 thumbs up!   

hope she is reading this forum and uses this answer to counter the snotty brat
when this comes up courtesy of some "journolister " at CNN

[ccp]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-s-chris-wallace-straight-up-asks-is-donald-trump-a-dictator-in-waiting-pushes-back-on-no-answer/ar-AA1lftW2?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=f7ac8b2948f14805aab0a4b168e81330&ei=11

I don't know how one goes from this topic to quoting the "great" Taylor Swift.

What!

I am losing my mind over this.
Sorry.

[DougMacG]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1effZM7l_fk

"I know everyone is frustrated"

has just replaced

'Everything' s great and you people don't appreciate it. '

My favorite comes Dem Whip Jim Clyburn:

"All of us knew."

[ccp]

I only caught the tail end of Bill Maher last night

and heard John Avalon (CNN "political analyst") trying to convince us the economy is good and it is much better than it was 3 yrs ago.   In other words since Biden's reign began .    Great point. But John, you left out that 3 yrs ago the economy was literally shut down for corona epidemic as were schools businesses
etc.

 

Maher of course nodded in agreement.   

[Crafty_Dog]

Another big sin of ommission for me is when discussing the decrease in the inflation rate is the failure to mention that Biden et al wanted to spend an additional  $5 TRILLION on the "Build Back Better" and would have succeeded but for Senators Manchin and Sinema.

[ccp]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/epochtv/could-hillary-clinton-be-democrats-new-choice-for-2024-post-5535871?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2023-11-27&src_cmp=mb-2023-11-27&utm_medium=email&est=Sk5zGpKfoyyZ0eyFnjtrjdJkNoH9%2Bk6j7leyxHzPrZgbnzsc918w7zRz4S8%3D

just the thought of this makes me look like this:

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=the+scream&qpvt=the+scream&form=IGRE&first=1

[ccp]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-suffers-another-cognitive-lapse-implies-dallas-is-another-country/vi-AA1lgMTg?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=831ba5ed70464784bd0366fff44c0756&ei=12

The WSJ poll that has Trump leading Biden 47 to 43
also has Haley leading 51 to 34 allowing her to make the case once again she would have better chance of winning

Of course it is only a WSJ poll for FWIW

[Crafty_Dog]

Surprised that Haley is not leading her talking points with that poll.

[Crafty_Dog]

second

https://dailycaller.com/2023/12/09/iowa-voters-trump-lead-airtight-seems/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=29912&pnespid=6uY8Ey9HNq0Hi.6buGS7SZiRvQmqTsZvcrizxPli9B9m8JY3Y2lr4CoTVBbZvwanAX0I6yam

[DougMacG]

https://themessenger.com/opinion/joe-biden-withdraw-2024-one-term-family-hunter-tax-evasion-indictment

Give a nice speech about how much you love your son and your country.

[Crafty_Dog]

Haley vs. Trump vs. Biden
She beats the President by 17 in the latest WSJ poll. Trump wins by 4.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Dec. 14, 2023 6:42 pm ET


Democrats have assisted Donald Trump’s campaign for the GOP presidential nomination in so many ways that it’s hard to keep track. There are the four indictments, the legacy of mistrust from the failed Russia collusion lie from 2016, and the great Biden inflation. But most helpful is how Democrats have undermined the argument that Mr. Trump can’t defeat President Biden.


The he-can’t-win case was strong after Mr. Trump led the GOP to defeat in elections in 2018, 2020, the 2021 Georgia Senate races, and again in 2022 with disappointing gains in the House and defeat in the Senate. This is one reason Ron DeSantis surged in the polls in early 2023 after his big victory in the Florida Governor’s race. Most polls at the time showed Mr. Trump losing to Mr. Biden in a rematch, while other Republicans ran ahead or at least closer.

But Mr. Biden has become so unpopular that Mr. Trump is now leading the President in most head-to-head surveys. In the latest WSJ poll published on the weekend, Mr. Trump is leading Mr. Biden 47%-43% nationwide. Mr. Biden led 45%-43% last December.

This is despite the poll’s finding that Mr. Trump’s unfavorability rating is 56%. Mr. Biden’s is higher at 61%. Most voters in both parties don’t think Mr. Biden is up to the job of President for another four years.

But the WSJ survey also asked voters about their preference if the GOP nominee were Mr. DeSantis, or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Mr. DeSantis was tied with Mr. Biden at 45%. Ms. Haley blew the President away 51%-34%. Ms. Haley consistently beats Mr. Biden by more than Mr. Trump does—often a lot more.

Polls taken 11 months from Election Day are hardly definitive, but their timing as voting begins in the primaries is a huge benefit to Mr. Trump. They mask his vulnerabilities that could reappear once he’s campaigning every day before the voters. And they let GOP voters believe that those vulnerabilities don’t matter.

If Mr. Trump gets the GOP nomination, he will owe a great debt to Democrats for insisting on Mr. Biden as their nominee.

[Body-by-Guinness]

… to start your Sunday. Surprised he’s retained 37%.

Is Joe Biden in free fall?
The Hill News / by J.T. Young / December 17, 2023 at 09:11AM

As bad as polling has been for Joe Biden recently, it just got significantly worse on Thursday. 

In addition to overall polling, two specific polls — one by Rasmussen and one by Bloomberg/Morning Consult — shed new light on what could be an ominous new trend for Democrats. If true and a trend, then there is no light at the end of the tunnel for Biden next November.

National polls were already bad for the incumbent president. According to Real Clear Politics’s Dec. 14 average of national polls, Biden trailed GOP frontrunner Donalf Trump 44.1 percent to 47.3 percent. He also trailed in twelve of the fourteen polls used to make that average; Biden led in only one — and that by a scant 1 percent — and was tied in the other. On Nov. 14, the same RCP average showed Trump ahead by just 0.8 of a percentage point; on Aug. 14, Biden led by 0.7 of a percentage point. For an average of national polls, these are large changes in a short time. 

The impact of today’s Trump lead is only compounded by the fact that Biden won in 2020’s popular vote by 4.4 percentage points, even as he squeaked out an Electoral College victory by winning six states by less than 3 percent of their popular vote. That effectively means that Biden is actually 7.6 percentage points behind where he needs to be to beat the former president again in 2024.

So, what specifically made this generally bad news even worse for Biden?

On Dec. 14, Rasmussen released their poll of likely voters (that is, voters indicating they will be more likely to vote than just registered voter polls). In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led Biden by a staggering 10 percentage points: 48 percent to 38 percent. In Rasmussen’s results on a three-way matchup that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — a configuration that favors Biden by dropping third-party candidates Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who will likely draw more votes from Biden — Trump still led by 8 percentage points: 40 percent to 32 percent, with 16 percent for Kennedy. 

The kicker according to Rasmussen: “This is a reversal of our November survey, when Biden led by four points, with 46% to Trump’s 42%. The new survey also shows stronger support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”

A Dec. 14, Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll takes the bad news to another level of specificity by tracking voters in the six battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — that Biden narrowly won in 2020 to secure his Electoral College victory. 

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led in all six of these states, his narrowest lead being 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and his largest lead being 6 percentage points in Georgia. In a five-way matchup that includes Kennedy, West and Stein, Trump still leads in all six of these battleground states, with his narrowest lead being 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania and his largest lead being 7 percentage points in Georgia.

Mind you, Trump does not need to carry all six states to win in 2024; he needs to flip just 35 electoral votes to do so. Pennsylvania and Georgia alone would do it, as well as other combinations that do not require Trump to win Pennsylvania. 

All this bad news raises the specter of an even worse verdict for the president and his party: Is Biden in free-fall? In other words, is a consensus starting to coalesce against Biden that time cannot correct? 

The election is less than 11 months away. These latest polls raise the possibility that momentum is starting to feed on itself and becoming a self-fulfilling verdict on Biden’s presidency. It further raises the question as to what could change such a verdict if it is indeed being shaped. 

It is hard to see an issue out there that could go right for Biden in the coming months that he must not first take responsibility for having made wrong in the first place: foreign policy fiascos; a tepid economy and torrid inflation; excessive spending deficits and debt; an open-border immigration policy; an extremist environmental approach.

One last look at these latest polls offers one more revelation: Biden is perilously close to 37 percent. Why is 37 percent important? That is the percentage of voters who self-identified as Democrats in his 2020 victory. Today’s polling numbers warn that Biden could be edging closer to retaining only his base. Or, put another way: that Biden has lost the rest of the country. 

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/lead-strategist-for-desantis-super-pac-jeff-roe-resigns-after-washington-post-article-5548312?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2023-12-17-2&src_cmp=breaking-2023-12-17-2&utm_medium=email&est=hiRwyME4yitkFuTQ00Srh5HI%2Bqh2UJMNo39huI9mzd1PxM8fQtg8i8v5EZDYRbEVR4wE

[DougMacG]

Latest fox nationwide poll:
Trump 69, DeSantis 12, Haley 9, Ramaswamy 5, Christie 2
Trump 50, Biden 46

Iowa
Trump 58, DeSantis 22, Haley 13, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 3

New Hampshire
Trump 44, Haley 29, Christie 10, DeSantis 11, Ramaswamy 5

Haley polls 2 points better than Trump in the general election.  DeSantis 4 points worse.
----------

I like DeSantis.  He maintains second place nationally, the only other in double digits.  But in reality he isn't catching on.

The 3 candidates ranked by how conservative they aim their campaign,
DeSantis, Trump, Haley.
Their general election numbers are exactly the opposite.

Haley at 29 in NH has the best chance for an early upset.

But realistically, something has to change structurally in this race, sooner rather than later, or the nomination is Trump's.

On the other side, the reason Dems support Biden is because he is allegedly the only one who can beat Trump.  Biden trails Trump in seven swing states.  What is Plan B for them?

Biden should be telling Newsom or someone now that he is getting out before the end of the year.

DeSantis (and or Haley) need Biden to drop out in order to change the face of the race. 

Hunter's (and Joe's) legal troubles (and impeachment prospects) are serious now.  That should cause him to bail but more likely it motivates him to double down on holding power against the wished of all but Jill.  Without incumbency and being the nominee, he is even more powerless.

I think we underestimate how popular Trump is on the right and I think Trump supporters underestimate how much he damage he does to our cause in the longer run.

The table has (almost) never been set better for our side to win all branches and chambers of government.  Who else feels we about to blow it - again?

[Crafty_Dog]

Tangent:  Trump went to the UFC last night and got cheered.

[ccp]

well he only goes to events where he will be cheered

does he go to soccer matches?

or Washington Commanders game?

How about an NBA game?

[Crafty_Dog]

IIRC he has gone to NFL and/or MLB  , , ,

And where do Magoo and Kommiela go?

[Crafty_Dog]

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1736545520678572535

[Body-by-Guinness]

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1736545520678572535

Oh my. Keep your powder dry.

[ccp]

pre covid

Trump =>  "all time highs"  "look at your 401 Ks and thank me".

now stock market at new highs :

Trump => stock market "making the rich richer"

what a joke

[ccp]

When the stock market was high under Trump the LEFT cried this helps the rich.

So, when Trump now states this he is being satirical, but I would have preferred he point this out.

So when Biden beats his chest that the market is all time high we should all sarcastically point out that is great for the rich but what about everyone else !!!!

[DougMacG]

More detail on that latest poll:
DeSantis (R) 47, Biden (D) 47
Trump (R) 50, Biden (D) 46
Haley (R) 49, Biden (D) 43

I wish it were the other way around.  DeSantis can't brag and Haley's advantage doesn't matter if Trump was going to win anyway.

Watch these polls tighten after the nomination is locked in.

Also subtract 7 points for mail in voting.

Biden approval at 33%, Pew Research:

[DougMacG]

The picture below tells a story about how Biden will have trouble impressing young people.  He looks older than my grandpa looked in a casket yet age is the least of his problems.  Mental decay and starting with very little intellect surpass it.  Failed results from failed policies are bringing down his acceptance, spending, inflation, taxes, regulations, war on energy, worse than non-existent border enforcement, plus nothing he has subjected us to on climate change has made a dime's worth of difference on the planet as the coal usage shifts to other countries on other continents emitting the same greenhouse gasses into the same air.  On top of that people are just now finding out he is the most corrupt President we have ever had, just from being too weak to say no to his greedy, money grubbing relatives.

Making Democrat matters worse if that's possible, Newsom is too male, too white, and has a record of worse policies with worse results. Kamala is less popular than Joe, and there is no damage free way of resolving which of those two should replace him.  It's a too late for a newcomer to burst on the scene.  Dean Phillips ran a liquor store and has 2% in the latest poll, doesn't even get a mention at the link.

Michelle Obama, you don't want this job and how would you walk over Kamala to get it anyway?



https://unherd.com/thepost/you-thought-joe-biden-was-bad-look-at-his-democrat-rivals/

I don't think the man can dress himself.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/12/19/jill-biden-joe-schedule-white-house-rest-age/

[ccp]

Hillary is working with her mob behind the scenes it seems
as she is getting more "high profile"

she is a mere 76 ish.

[DougMacG]

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/colorado-bars-trump-from-the-ballot.php

[ccp]

IS voter suppression

I thought

EVERY VOTE COUNTS only  for Democrats

NO votes count if Republican !

this won't stand.....after listening to legal experts.
what will be interesting is how the triumvirate of woke women on the SCOTUS will rule on this.
particularly Kenji Jones.

And with perfect coordination of the media hit squad, MSPCP had segment that Just. Thomas should recuse himself from this case and had the propublica self appointed hitman on last night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5icQ-hQi9Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqj0VboeAlM

It is so funny/sad to watch CNN state "the Republicans" will claim, Trump supporters will claim this is more evidence the "deep state" is going after Trump the law is not applied equally etc......

As though it ain't obvious it is.  Only that Republicans claim it is.

[DougMacG]

Restraint is to not say, we'll show you what an armed insurrection looks like. Instead Trump and conservatives are asking the courts to resolve this.

Armed insurrection is a redundancy.  How do you insurrect without arms?  Isn't that a protest?  Peaceful protest? Our last armed insurrection was 1776? We also had some trouble in the 1860s. Actually this law had to do with the civil war.

Wasn't Trump tried and acquitted in the Senate for this?  The point then was to keep him off the ballot now.  Asked and answered in the proper venue.

'Trump' isn't hard to spell.  Murkowski won a write in race. 

My first reaction is to go out and buy arms - legally. 

Free and fair elections why we don't have insurrection.

Supreme Court needs to put out some 9-0 decisions, soon.

[ccp]

from last night's cable discussions the ruling bars people from writing his name in the ballot .
such votes will simply not be counted.

for Trump every vote does not count.

[ccp]

Byron York,

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democratic-lawfare-vs-donald-trump

[DougMacG]

"from last night's cable discussions the ruling bars people from writing his name in the ballot - such votes will simply not be counted."

   - Unbelievable!

"LET’S GO PEACEFULLY AND PATRIOTICALLY TO THE CAPITOL"

Now they have people like me defending Trump.

Before all this lawfare against Trump started, DeSantis was leading him:
https://nypost.com/2022/12/08/desantis-ahead-of-trump-by-5-points-in-2024-gop-primary-poll/

[ccp]

" Now they have people like me defending Trump. "

I feel the same way .

This is so outrageous, so much like Communist countries we used to read about, I want to vote even more for him just to stick it in their faces.

[ccp]

causing Pamela Brown to take a small gasp of air when he tells her the effects of Colorado ruling on Trump's '24 prospects:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/12/20/pollster-frank-luntz-donald-trump-is-more-likely-beat-biden-after-colorado-ballot-removal/

It is even true for me - I feel more encouraged to vote for him with enthusiasm!   

Shut down the shysters!!! NOW !

[ccp]

Coulter

the contrarian view:

https://anncoulter.com/2023/12/20/bidens-three-paths-to-victory1/

Rasmussan poll on drudge - Biden approval at 46%?!?^#^&*@$

And we are 11 mo away from election.

[ccp]

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2023/12/22/cook-political-reports-shift-two-states-to-toss-up-amid-bidens-weak-polling-n4924939

just remarkable we are not trouncing Biden in the polls by 15 points.
I wonder why?

[Crafty_Dog]

A similar question arose when Trump was running against Hillary.

[DougMacG]

Yes this is WAY too close considering the circumstances, and latest latest NYT poll has Biden UP by 2 points.  Remember the tie or anything within the margin of error goes to the Democrat. 

Maybe all the polls will tighten up after Trump has the nomination clinched. Here we go again...  duped into thinking Trump can win; people are not taking the alternatives seriously. If he can win Georgia this time, why did he lose the last five times counting Senate races.

Gov Kemp won and all the other Republican office holders won so it's not like it's a blue state. Only Trump lost and all the races he touched.

Covid rules,  mail in voting, 2000 miles, Soros state Secretaries of state, 2000 mules, unsecured voting machines, same software,  no voter ID, media and big tech actively slanted and blocking conservative messaged, lack of standing if you challenge, nothing has gotten any better.