https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/West-and-allies-must-never-yield-to-Russia-s-nuclear-threatWest and allies must never yield to Russia's nuclear threat
Easy compromise could make the world a far more dangerous place
Has World War III already begun? Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to be constantly reminded of the dire consequences of his recklessness.
HIROYUKI AKITA, Nikkei commentator
October 23, 2022 10:05 JST
TOKYO -- With Russia showing no sign of ending its brutal invasion of Ukraine, concern is growing that President Vladimir Putin may ultimately resort to tactical nuclear weapons; he has made such threats repeatedly.
Some pundits say Russia might go the nuclear route to break Ukraine's will if it concludes that it cannot win the war with conventional arms.
How can the West and its allies protect the people of Ukraine and restore peace without yielding to Putin's threat? The world is now at a critical juncture.
Policymakers, military leaders as well as academic and other experts from the U.S., Europe and elsewhere gathered in Warsaw, Poland, on Oct. 4 and 5 to discuss the issue at the Warsaw Security Forum. Tensions were running high in the country, where more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees have fled to.
In open debate, many participants called for unified support for Ukraine, but in closed-door sessions they focused on more sensitive topics, particularly on how to respond to Putin's nuclear threat.
Giving in to Putin could encourage North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping to take the path of nuclear brinkmanship. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
There is a slight division within NATO on the issue, with the U.S., U.K., Poland and the three Baltic states taking a much tougher stance on Russia than Germany, France and a few other members.
Overall, NATO members agree they should never succumb to Putin's threat and continue to support Ukraine until the invasion ends in failure. They also agree that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, it should face a massive retaliation from either the U.S. or NATO.
However, some experts are calling for a more cautious approach: If Putin is cornered as the war progresses, the risk of his using nuclear arms will increase. Some even said Ukraine should be persuaded to negotiate a cease-fire with Moscow for the sake of avoiding a nuclear attack on itself.
For some, it might seem better to appease Putin than risk nuclear conflict, but the reverse is true. Any concession to Putin would not only hamper the security of Ukraine but also make the world a far more dangerous place.
There are three reasons for this. First, if Ukraine agrees to a cease-fire while Russian troops are still on its soil, that would mean Putin's nuclear threat has worked. Once he tastes success, he might use the same tactics to expand his control to all of Ukraine or to further threaten Eastern Europe and other regions.
Poland has experienced the Russian menace many times in the past. It was invaded by both Germany and the former Soviet Union during World War II. Though it regained independence after the war, the country was soon incorporated into the Soviet sphere.
A Polish expert on Russia warns that compromising with Putin -- giving him a cease-fire on his terms -- will undoubtedly lead to Moscow launching another invasion.
Second, if the West gives any hint of yielding to the Russian threat, China, North Korea and other nuclear nations will try to emulate Russia, convinced that nuclear threats work. China might increase its military pressure on Taiwan while warning the U.S. that it will not hesitate to use its nuclear arsenal if Washington interferes.
Third, some countries might seek to go nuclear to protect themselves if nuclear powers begin to use threats and intimidation to get their way. Recent polls in South Korea, which faces a nuclear threat from North Korea, show that a majority support their country gaining nuclear arms.
To end the Ukrainian crisis, the West and its allies need to do more than increase their military support to Ukraine while calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces. They must increase their diplomatic and other pressure so that Putin will think twice before deciding to go nuclear.
A medical worker runs past a burning car after a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 10. © AP
In other words, Putin needs to be made aware that if he chooses the path of destruction, he would face a full-scale retaliation from NATO. Once Putin realizes what such retaliation would do to his military, he might hesitate to use the ultimate weapon. The West also needs to urge China and India, two major fence-sitters, to oppose Russia's use of nuclear arms.
Specific retaliatory measures are being discussed within NATO. One senior official said the U.S. and Europe share information on all possible options while holding almost daily talks.
Such options likely include the annihilation of Russian forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea, according to former high-ranking U.S. and European military officers. The attacks would likely use conventional weapons, military experts say.
The White House, which has already warned Russian leadership of retaliatory action, should keep sounding the warning. Putin said on Sept. 21 that his nuclear threat is not a bluff; NATO needs to make him see that neither is its warning of retaliation.
The world now faces the greatest risk since the Cold War. Fighting between NATO and Russian forces, if it occurs, could lead to World War III or something close to it.
Fiona Hill, who led Russian policy at the U.S. National Security Council in the Donald Trump administration, told U.S. media last month that World War III has already begun. To prevent an armed escalation in Ukraine, the West and its allies need to keep reminding Putin and other Russian leaders of the dire consequences of their reckless actions
