It isn't just a chance Democrats will take the Senate, it is a better than 50% likelihood.
http://prospect.org/article/nine-battleground-states-could-flip-senate-and-supreme-court
I doubt it. Would you like to wager? I'll bet you 500 pesos. If I lose, I'll pay.
Thanks DDF. My point is only that R's are swimming upstream, not that they can't or won't pull it off. If the R's either lose the Pres.election or win just because people hate and don't trust the Dem, then there will be enough Dem voters out there to easily take back the Senate. R's are defending 24 seats and Dems 10.(?) Of the 9 closest raises, 7 involve a Dem gain and 2 are possible R pickups. If this is a Presidential election turnout year and the R is not successfully reaching out and changing a few hearts and minds, then the Senate goes to the Dems. Republicans will need a successful, positive message to win the White House, and failing that they will lose not only the Presidency but the also the Senate and the Judiciary, for generations to come, with it.
Crafty, please read the article linked:
http://prospect.org/article/nine-battleground-states-could-flip-senate-and-supreme-courtNine Battleground States that Could Flip the Senate -- and the Supreme Court
PETER DREIER FEBRUARY 14, 2016
...
Here’s the rundown of the key battleground states:
New Hampshire: First-termer Kelly Ayotte is probably the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate. She’s facing a strong opponent in popular Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, who announced her Senate bid in October. New Hampshire voters have supported Democrats in five of the past six presidential races. This gives Hassan an edge. Possible Democratic pickup.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Ron Johnson is another vulnerable Republican seeking re-election. The billionaire invested about $9 million of his own money to beat Senator Russ Feingold by a small margin in 2010, a midterm election. Feingold is now seeking to regain his former seat and has the advantage of this being a presidential year, where Democratic turnout is likely to be higher than six years ago. Obama carried Wisconsin with 53 percent of the vote in 2008 and 56 percent four years later. Possible Democratic pickup.
Illinois: Republican Mark Kirk rode the GOP wave to victory in 2010, but this year he’s facing a tight race for re-election in a state where voters typically support a Democrat for president and where the other Senate seat is held by Dick Durbin, a popular Democrat. Representative Tammy Duckworth is likely to be the Democratic candidate for Senate. An Iraq War veteran, Duckworth served as a U.S. Army helicopter pilot and suffered severe combat wounds, losing both of her legs and damaging her right arm. She was elected to Congress in 2012 and re-elected two years later. Right now she is leading Kirk in most of the statewide polls, and Kirk is considered the underdog. Possible Democratic pickup.
Colorado: Democrats believe it is crucial to hold onto this Senate seat, currently held by Michael Bennet, who is running for re-election. He was appointed to that seat in 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter when Ken Salazar became secretary of the Interior. Bennet won the seat on his own in 2010, narrowly defeating Republican Ken Buck. There is no clear frontrunner among Republicans seeking the party’s nomination, which gives Bennet an advantage. Obama carried Colorado in both 2008 and 2012, but it is still considered a swing state in the current presidential race. Bennet will need a strong Democratic turnout to stay in office. Tossup.
Ohio: Republican incumbent Rob Portman is running for re-election. His likely Democratic opponent, former Governor Ted Strickland, is currently leading Portman in the polls. Strickland won a landslide victory for governor in 2006 but lost a close race to John Kasich four years later. This will be an intense battleground state in both the presidential and Senate races. Tossup.
A strong Democratic turnout could doom Toomey’s re-election bid and help the Democratss take back the Senate.
Pennsylvania: The Republican incumbent Patrick Toomey wants to stay in the Senate, but he is not a very popular politician in this state. The two leading Democrats are Katie McGinty (former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf) and former Representative Joe Sestak, whom Toomey narrowly defeated six years ago as part of the GOP wave. Pennsylvania will also see a highly competitive race for president, even though a GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won Pennsylvania since 1988. A strong Democratic turnout could doom Toomey’s re-election bid and help the Democratss take back the Senate. Possible Democratic pickup.
Nevada: Democrat Harry Reid, who has served in the Senate since 1987 and was its majority leader from 2007 to 2014, is not seeking re-election, so this is a wide open seat. Reid was lucky that in 2010 the Republicans nominated Tea Party extremist Sharron Angle as their Senate candidate. She was an ineffective campaigner and Reid beat her by a 55 percent to 45 percent margin, but many analysts believed he would be vulnerable to defeat this year if the Republicans put up a better opponent. After bowing out, Reid recruited former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto to run for the seat as the Democratic nominee. She will likely face Representative Joe Heck in the general election in what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Tossup; possible GOP pickup.
Florida: This is another state where the incumbent is not running for re-election. Marco Rubio is seeking the GOP nomination for president, leaving the seat vacant. Florida will be one of the most hotly-contested states for both president and Senate. Both parties hold their primaries on August 30, which will make this a prolonged battleground state. Until recently, it looked like Representative Alan Grayson, a charismatic progressive, had the edge to win the Democratic nomination, but he now faces a scandal over his business practices, having operated a hedge fund while serving in Congress. Several of his key campaign staffers have resigned. Some top Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, have called on Grayson to quit the race. If he does, that would make Representative Patrick Murphy the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. He’ll have a slight edge over any of the likely GOP candidates, who include Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, and defense contractor Todd Wilcox, a former Special Forces commander and CIA veteran. Tossup; possible Democratic pickup.
Arizona: It is possible that Arizona voters are getting tired of Republican John McCain, who has served in the Senate since 1987 and was the GOP’s losing presidential nominee in 2008. Political handicappers give McCain an edge but predict that he’ll have the toughest re-election fight of his career and could be defeated if the Democrats nominate a strong candidate and invest the money needed to run a good campaign. He is likely to run against Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, the toughest Democratic challenger he has ever faced. A strong Democratic turnout, especially among women, could give Kirkpatrick a victory. Tossup; longshot Democratic pickup.
In two additional states, Republican incumbents—Missouri’s Roy Blunt and North Carolina’s Richard Burr—could face tough re-election bids, but the political prognosticators think these Senate seats will remain in GOP hands. In Indiana, Republican incumbent Dan Coats is stepping down, but it will be difficult for a Democrat to win that open seat unless they come up with a very strong candidate and voter turnout among low-income, minority, and young voters reaches record levels.
Bottom line: In a high turnout election, Democrats have a better-than-even chance for a net pickup of at least four seats. Filibusters are still allowed to block Supreme Court confirmations. However, with a newly elected Democratic president and Senate, it’s not clear that Republicans would take that risk, especially since rules can be changed with a simple majority. We all knew how consequential this year’s election will be. With Scalia’s death, it just got even more consequential.
