September 17, 2024
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India’s Northeastern Borderlands at Risk
Ethnic conflict and upheaval in neighboring countries are a serious constraint on New Delhi’s rise.
By: Kamran Bokhari
Between discontented citizens and disputed borders, India’s northeast has long posed challenges for the government in New Delhi. The area is cut off from the rest of the country except for a narrow strip of land between Nepal and Bangladesh, and it has become even less secure amid India’s deteriorating relations with China, Myanmar’s implosion and, most recently, the collapse of Bangladesh’s regime. Already threatened by instability emanating from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran to its west, the world’s most populous nation is now facing similar pressures from its east which, combined with the remoteness of the the states thereof, will seriously constrain New Delhi’s rise as a global player.
Internal Conflict
Indian Home Minister Amit Shah announced on Sept. 17 that New Delhi is negotiating to resolve an armed conflict between two ethnic groups in the northeastern state of Manipur. The state government, which is led by the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, last week imposed a curfew in the Imphal Valley and surrounding districts and shut down public and private educational institutions throughout the state. This was in response to violent student unrest and renewed fighting between the Meitei majority and Kuki minority. At an event marking the first 100 days of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, Shah said there would be no resolution unless both ethnic groups came to an understanding.
The conflict centers on economic benefits and quotas in jobs and education provided to tribal Kukis. It was triggered by a 2023 court ruling in favor of Meiteis’ push for “tribal” status, which would grant them the right to buy land in the hills and a guaranteed allotment of government jobs. More generally, however, the BJP’s right-wing Hindu nationalism has exacerbated tensions between the predominantly Hindu Meiteis, who control state politics in Manipur, and the largely Christian Kukis inhabiting the hills.
Administrative Regions of India
(click to enlarge)
Since the violence erupted last year, more than 225 people have died, and at least 60,000 have been displaced. But although it might look like a highly localized instance of ethnic strife, India’s central government is taking no chances. If not contained, the conflict in Manipur risks spreading to neighboring states such as Nagaland, Assam and Mizoram, where both Meiteis and Kukis also have significant populations. Adding fuel to the fire, refugees from the civil war in Myanmar are pouring into the hills of Manipur.
An Imploding Myanmar
Indeed, Indian authorities have pointed to the conflicts in Myanmar as a major factor fueling violence in Manipur. The region’s chief minister, Biren Singh, backed by the Meitei majority, has said that Kuki migrants fleeing Myanmar have worsened the situation. He accuses these migrants of engaging in drug trafficking and terrorism, further stoking Meitei fears that the state's demographics are shifting in favor of the Kukis.
Over the past few years, Myanmar’s once powerful military regime has lost control of large areas, with half a dozen rebel groups seizing territory along the borders of India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand. Sagaing, the largest of Myanmar’s three regions bordering India, shares a 250-mile border with Manipur. From the junta's perspective, rebel groups along the Indian border find sanctuary in Manipur and other northeastern states like Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. Manipur is currently deporting thousands who entered the country illegally back to Sagaing.
Administrative Regions of Myanmar
(click to enlarge)
Though the Meitei-Kuki conflict is the most pressing security issue in northeastern India, the region has a history of ethno-nationalist insurgencies. The collapse of central authority in Myanmar thus poses a significant security threat to India because instability could spill over into its northeastern states.
Regime Collapse in Bangladesh
Meanwhile, the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year-old government in Bangladesh could set India back dramatically. Forced out by the military amid mass protests, Hasina's ouster has destabilized the political landscape of the Muslim-majority nation of 178 million. Her Awami League is unlikely to regain power soon, especially after weakening the Bangladesh National Party, its main rival. This vacuum has opened the door for the Jamaat-i-Islami and other Islamist parties, whose grassroots power was instrumental to Hasina’s downfall.
Wary of Islamist influence, the military establishment is expected to delay elections. The current interim government, led by economist and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is likely to give way to a right-of-center coalition of nationalist and Islamist forces, which worries India. The rise of Islamist groups in Bangladesh, mirroring the trend in Pakistan, poses a serious threat tp New Delhi, especially given the simmering tensions between Hindu nationalists and India's 200-million-strong Muslim population.
Regime change in Bangladesh, moreover, gives China an opportunity to enhance its influence. India is already locked in a border standoff with China along their 2,100-mile mountainous frontier. One of the hot spots of the standoff runs along the northern flank of India's northeast region, from Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China as Zangnan or South Tibet) through the tiny Himalayan nation of Bhutan, and down to Sikkim. This belt of territory connects India’s northeast, which borders both Bangladesh and Myanmar, adding to New Delhi's growing security concerns.
This region, positioned between the eastern Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, is a fractious borderland facing growing geopolitical turbulence. Civil war in Myanmar, political upheaval in Bangladesh and escalating tensions with China along India’s northeastern frontier all converge to create a precarious security environment.
