The Games Begin: US and Russian Top Dogs Face Off in Riyadh
Simplicius
Feb 18
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In this hefty ~3,500 word article we go into the current setup for negotiations between the two great powers. The exclusive paid section afterwards will deal primarily with predictions on how things will play out over the course of the next six months to a year, including how the conflict might settle.
Things are rolling full steam ahead on the ‘negotiations’ front. Russian and American counterparts are set to meet in Riyadh tomorrow, February 18th. The American team is said to consist of Rubio, Witkoff, and Mike Waltz, and the Russian one of Lavrov, Putin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev.
Ushakov was once famous in Russian media for allegedly having an assistant, one Oleg Smolenkov, who was accused of being a CIA informant after allegedly being ‘exfiltrated’ to the US. If true, this is obviously a concerning bit of information.
They are seen arriving to Riyadh, Ushakov just behind Lavrov:
Lavrov’s inclusion is interesting only because he has issued the most recent direct statement that gives us a clue of the tenor of the upcoming negotiations:
"Let us be clear. No land where Russian people live will be ceded to Ukraine. Why would we make any such territorial concessions? Ukraine would simply kill those people" - Russian Foreign Ministry
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-sends-russias-top-diplomat-kremlin-adviser-meet-trump-officials-saudi-2025-02-17/This was followed by a statement from UN rep Nebenzya wherein he confirmed both Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are permanently lost to Ukraine, and will not be considered negotiable, as well as again reiterating the demilitarization component of Russian demands:
The Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, amidst talks about the end of Russia's war against Ukraine, made a new statement. "Ukraine has now irreversibly lost not only Crimea but also the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which have been incorporated into Russia. Accordingly, the situation needs to be addressed in the regions that remain under Kyiv's control." - said the mouthpiece of Russian propaganda at the UN. In addition, Nebenzya insists that the "future Ukraine," as envisioned by Moscow, should be a "demilitarized neutral state that does not belong to any blocs or alliances."
As can be seen from the above, major conditions are already outlined in advance—Russia will not be discussing any territorial concessions or land swaps with Kursk, and demilitarization is still on the table.
Here Ushakov is interviewed by Yevgeny Popov upon arrival to Riyadh:
Note the very important point he makes: he appears to imply the real purpose of these negotiations are not to actually decide or conclude anything, but to very gradually begin thawing the relations between Russia and the US, as a first step of ‘normalization’. This is backed up by other Russian analysts:
Negotiation track, Dmitry Peskov's statements. Lavrov and Ushakov flew to Riyadh on behalf of the Russian president for talks with representatives of the Trump administration. First of all, they will discuss the restoration of friendly and mutually beneficial relations between the two countries, and not Ukraine with its inadequate wishlist.
Ushakov further implies that they’re not expecting major progress because both sides have sent very serious people, which I believe is meant to convey that the Russian delegation will not be easily swayed or manipulated, but will be unyielding in representing their interests.
Kirill Dmitriev also hinted that the meetings are more about establishing relations, rather than solving the Ukraine issue right away:
And if you still aren’t convinced how serious the Russians are in standing their ground—rather than meekly ‘being led by the nose’, as many fear or expect—here’s another ominous statement from Lavrov, which seems to imply that Russia intends to exact strong retribution from everyone involved in the tragedy of Ukraine:
Listen to those words above, does that sound like a negotiations team ready to “concede” to the US?
The negotiations are meant to be just a primer before Trump and Putin meet in person, potentially later this month.
Of course the real nub of the negotiations will revolve around what the US is secretly willing to offer. On the surface, Trump and co. must preserve their bold American bravura, but these opening forays are non-starters for Russia. In reality, behind the scenes there are hintings that Trump may be ready to go much farther, perhaps even make some of Lavrov’s earlier dreams into realities.
For instance, rumors now abound of Trump really doing a number on Europe unlike anything previously imagined. Firstly, there’s the outrage revolving around Trump’s ‘unfriendly’ strangulation of Ukraine—read Trump’s shocking alleged terms highlighted below:
"If this draft were accepted, Trump’s demands would take a larger share of Ukraine’s GDP than the reparations imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles—later reduced at the 1921 London Conference and the 1924 Dawes Plan. Meanwhile, he appears willing to let Russia off the hook entirely."
In a proposed economic agreement on "compensation" from Washington to Kiev, the terms go far beyond control over Ukraine’s critical minerals. The deal extends to everything from ports and infrastructure to oil, gas, and the broader resource base of the country. Under the agreement, the U.S. and Ukraine would establish a joint investment fund to ensure that "hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from Ukraine’s reconstruction."
As part of the terms, the U.S. would take 50% of Ukraine's current resource extraction revenues and 50% of the financial value of all new licenses issued to third parties for future resource monetization. A lien on these revenues would also be placed in favor of the U.S. One source familiar with the negotiations remarked, “This provision essentially means, ‘Pay us first, then feed your children.’
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-us-zelenskyy-agreement-trump-minerals-4d5eefcc44c9f17f330db98d81720b29“We’re not just a raw materials farm” Zelensky whines.
Then there are the rumors that Trump has already pulled intelligence from Ukraine:
Here is more information from the enemy's channels, if they were true that would be great:
Yes, there is some unpleasant news, so far at the level of classified information and rumors, but apparently that is the way it is based on recent events.
It seems that the United States has stopped providing us with information on Russian strategic weapons movements.
And our only eyes are the British reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea, which at best covers the south and west of the country, the rest we cannot see.
Neither the redeployment, nor the take-off of the beavers, nor the launching of the missiles, only when they are already over our territory
Granted, the above should be taken with a big grain of salt as it’s the least corroborated, but it adds flavor to the ongoing revelations.
Next are the reports that Trump may only allow US weapons to Ukraine if they are purchased by European countries:
https://tass.com/world/1914103This was after Hegseth stated that “overwhelming share of lethal and non-lethal assistance to Kiev in the future should be provided by the Europeans, not Washington.”
Well, that’s fair, isn’t it? The ‘Russian threat’ is a European security problem, shouldn’t they be the ones funding it?
But the potential moves get worse:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14406417/Trump-withdraw-troops-form-Baltics-leave-Europe-vulnerable-Russia-European-officials-fear-report-claims-peace-plan-Ukraine-forced-extraordinary-financial-reparations.htmlhttps://sputnikglobe.com/20250217/trumps-us-may-exit-nato-if-europe-derails-us-russia-talks--ex-pentagon-officer-1121577021.htmlThe above from ‘ex-Pentagon officer’ David Pyne is just his own opinion and analysis, but as seen in the Daily Mail piece above, even mainstream press is beginning to consider the possibilities of similar options.
Trump seemed to hint warnings to Ukraine and Europe with re-iteration that Russia is a military powerhouse which defeated Napoleon and Hitler. Taken along with Trump’s other recent statement about Ukraine possibly becoming ‘Russian’ in the future, we can only assume that these are subtle signals from Trump to Ukraine and Europe that he is prepared to allow Russia to do whatever it needs to do, should Europe and Ukraine not play ball in accordance with whatever it is that the US-Russia talks happen to settle on.
But as seen from the hints delivered by Lavrov and Ushakov—and even Peskov who said yesterday that all negotiations would be done with the consideration of previous ‘Minsk betrayals’—Russia is not willing to bend this time around. This means that the ‘talks’—even the upcoming ones between Trump and Putin personally—are likely only to be the very opening normalization procedures of a very long process, which will take its natural course through the remainder of the year, as the Russian army continues to plow ahead.
That is to say, Russia will continue collapsing the Ukrainian defenses and breaking the AFU’s back, and Trump will use these facts over the coming months to put increasing pressure on both Ukraine and Europe to gradually force them to come around to the given realities. This will be a slow moving process that will include various related political developments in Europe, such as the upcoming German elections, which could obviously change the calculus or speed things along, depending on the results.
I made a prediction once long ago that there is potential for the upcoming events of the war’s denouement period to be timed in such a way as to result in the collapse of the entire European political establishment in synchrony with Russia’s final decisive military victory of Ukraine. That’s to say, the European elites which are in actuality heavily unpopular in their home countries, and are propped up by a powerful deep state machine akin to USAID’s totally artificial life-line support of vast media and establishment organs—these parties and establishment figures have doubled down on the Ukrainian war so heavily, that they face the possibility of sinking with their project. Should Ukraine be decisively defeated by Russia, it could spark an overwhelming movement through Europe, akin to the Trump-Musk tornado that has currently swept through the halls of power in the US, which could entirely upend the European system virtually overnight.
Sure, this may be a long shot, but the entire rotten system has now doubled down on Ukraine with an “all-in” desperation, it has placed all its eggs in one basket, conspicuously elevating the Ukrainian issue to central importance over all other European issues. This is the equivalent of making a massive all-in bet of your entire fortune, without any hedges. Should Ukraine face total defeat, it may take down the entire European political system, because the sheer corruption, hypocrisy, delusion, lies, manipulation, vast graft and theft of public funds from the rotten von der Leyen regime in Brussels will be clear for everyone to see, and the standing of her and her minions in the public eye will catastrophically plummet virtually overnight. They have placed all their final bets on this, and when Ukraine falls, the EU-globalist empire will face an irreversible collapse of public trust, the consequences of which can hardly be calculated.
Arestovich reportedly outlined his best and worst case scenarios:
Former Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Arestovych outlined the most negative and most positive scenarios for the end of the war.
The most negative scenario: Ukraine starts "fighting" against Trump, who halts support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian front line collapses, leading to a military coup by frontline troops who overthrow Zelensky. Taking advantage of the chaos, Russia captures much of Left Bank Ukraine (Poltava, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye). General Zaluzhnyi seizes power and halts the disaster by negotiating an urgent peace deal with Russia. "It could get even worse—Zaluzhnyi’s arrival would change nothing, as we would fall into ruin and civil war," Arestovych added.
The best scenario: A swift agreement to end the war, followed by the gradual restoration of Ukraine and its sovereignty.
The far more realistic ‘negative’ scenario is precisely one of the options we’ve written and spoken about here many times last year and beyond, but now it’s becoming a realistic mainstream discussion.
To prevent this coming collapse, the EU regime is likewise doubling down on the fear, amplifying Zelensky’s new claims that Russia is in fact building a whole new army of 150,000 troops that will allegedly be staged in Belarus in 2026, just like it was in 2022—the obvious insinuation being that Russia intends to seize Kiev:
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-warns-of-russian-military-buildup-potential-nato-threat-in-2026/Listen below:
Isn’t it interesting? We’re fed lie after lie about one million Russian losses yet now suddenly Russia has 15 spare divisions and will “100% occupy all of Europe.”
Now there’s all sorts of vapid smokescreen talk about European troops to Ukraine, but this is all canned nonsense given that the troops would hypothetically patrol a ‘ceasefire’ DMZ that will never exist—and no one has dared suggest sending troops during actual ongoing hostilities.
Here’s what German officials told Reuters about any possibilities of stopping Russia militarily:
The Poles agree:
The festering Maggot Queen and her brood are holding one of their ‘Vampire balls’ in Paris as we speak:
But don’t let their dead-eyed gazes and forced smiles fool you, they are clearly in panic and disarray, as their little world shrinks into smaller and smaller obscurity and isolation.
In fact, the opposite is slowly happening as Europe appears ready to thaw relations with Russia, and is champing at the bit to end the war for an excuse to do so:
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/16/will-europe-return-to-putins-gas“A deal with the devil would boost the continent’s miserable economy,” the Rothschild-owned rag writes.
"Will Europe return to Putin's gas?": Europeans are the first to orient themselves to the changing situation and are already making plans for Russian gas.
"High prices are forcing large consumers, such as chemical producers and steel mills, to cut production. Industrial production, already weak, continues to decline.
Not surprisingly, some European officials are looking greedily at Russian gas. Lower electricity rates could revitalize moribund European industry and reassure households. A resumption of supplies could also prompt Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace deal and then implement it. Any such deal would be a terrific turnaround."
At the same time Russia reports that Visa and Mastercard are already edging toward returning to Russia:
Visa and Mastercard will soon return to Russia, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, told TASS.
The United States plans to return a number of Russian banks to the SWIFT system. The Ministry of Finance is preparing a list of 20 credit institutions.
In conclusion, it’s clear that the current negotiations track is a process that has to slowly play out and evolve over time. Specifically, Trump will have to first “deal with Europe” over the course of the next few months as he comes to terms with the intractibility of European elite, not to mention their lack of cohesion, which will force Trump to increasingly dump the Ukrainian conflict on their lap as he’s already showing signs of doing now.
As stated, this is a process that has to go back and forth and deteriorate gradually before any major head way can be made. At the moment, we’re still in the phase of the process where a faux-optimism can still be somewhat convincingly paraded around by the Bilderberg-controlled EU globalist leaders. Once the situation deteriorates further as the US and Trump grow exasperated with European games and clear desire to prolong the conflict, then we can see real ‘progress’ as Trump will be forced to act in even more hostile and punitive fashion toward the misbehaving rugrats of Europe.
That is when we may see real threats of withdrawal from NATO come into play, and other ‘hard ball’ proposals that will send these compradors scurrying, causing the political crises in their countries to culminate in real revolutionary ways. When the disarray and discohesion peaks, we may finally begin to see the first real attempts from the West at making workable offers to Russia—ones that respect Putin’s actual core demands.
The problem is, by this time—which may be six to eight months in the future—the “situation on the ground” will have vastly changed in Ukraine’s disfavor, causing those demands to now be harsher than ever. Though I haven’t heard it yet, it was rumored that Zelensky again reiterated his claim that Ukraine would last only six months without US aid. Just a few days ago he admitted this in an interview:
The point is that, the current “negotiations” track is just part of a long natural process that will likely play out throughout the course of this year, wherein political pressures will increase on both Zelensky and European elites as the AFU’s battlefield situation continues badly deteriorating.
By summer time or afterwards, the chances of Zelensky surviving politically go down drastically, particularly if Russian spring-summer offensives begin to crumble Ukrainian lines even further. You’ll recall Budanov said by summertime Ukraine could begin facing “existential” uncertainties. By fall and onward, the situation could finally spiral into total collapse as the prospect of facing another “dark winter” would simply be inconceivable for Ukraine from a political, economic, social, and moral level.
By this point Trump could move in to “force Zelensky’s” hand in some aggressive way, or Arestovich’s vision will likely have played out, with various coups and civil war taking place. Granted, my long ago prediction from something like 2023 was that Ukraine could last to about spring of 2025, and it’s still possible things could end that early but there’s good chance they will be dragged out a bit further.
As we speak, “leaks” from the Paris meeting claim some “massive” €700B European package for Ukraine is being discussed.
https://archive.ph/hUzqjFrom the above:
Bloomberg: "The spending plans until after the German election on may 23. February, to be announced, in order to avoid Controversy ahead of the vote, about the plans the government informed representatives.”
The €700B claim:
However, Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock forged ahead and gave an insight into the order of magnitude. Baerbock already hinted that it could be around 700 billion euros: “We will launch a large package that has never existed on this scale before,” Baerbock said in an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of the Munich meeting. “Similar to the euro or the corona crisis, there is now a financial package for security in Europe. That will come in the near future.”
If this fails, and the US plays hard ball with its funding, then Ukraine may very well begin facing total battlefield collapse by summer, at which point any further ‘negotiations’ will take on an entirely different hue. It’s clear that this may be Trump’s plan all along, as he is merely going through the standard performative gestures of pulling for direct peace, while in reality appearing to be setting a trap for Europe, which would back its elites against the wall.
For instance, the part about providing weapons for Ukraine only via European purchases of said weapons. This could be a ruse, knowing that Europe will not be able to galvanize the political solidarity and authority to actually dispense those funds. This strategic line is clearly in Trump’s favor because the very weakening of anti-Trump European elites we discussed earlier would allow the rise of conservative pro-Trump parties in Europe, which would in every way play in the US’ favor. This is why Vance’s epochal speech which struck like a dagger through the heart of Europe appeared to be a brilliantly premeditated wedge to drive Europe apart, weakening the globalist cabal.
Recall the Daily Mail article earlier, which reported Trump could withdraw US troops far west of the Baltics, or even out of Europe entirely. Little by little, Trump is putting Europe in a stranglehold to usher in a world where relations with Russia can be normalized, and economic exigencies can be reworked for the benefit of everyone involved. This is precisely what the Duran folks opined in today’s show, wherein they argued that Trump’s secret plan is likely to remove all Russian sanctions, at which point Europe, too, would have no choice but to remove theirs.
Recall how indifferent Trump was when he stated that “Ukraine could become Russian”—it was obvious that Trump does not actually care if Russia swallows Ukraine up. Trump could “lose Ukraine” but gain something far more valuable in exchange, a Europe freed from the globalist cabal’s grip, taken over by political parties in tune with the US, which would vastly benefit everyone such that by comparison, Ukraine would be little more than a passing memory
