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1
Politics & Religion / Routh's wife
« on: Today at 11:32:00 AM »


https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/maximized-thursday-september-19-2024

WORLD NEWS AND COMMENTARY 💬🗞

🔥🔥 Like all these cases, the Ryan Routh story is getting more convoluted by the minute. Wait till you get a load of this. Yesterday, outstanding Florida Representative Matt Gaetz (R-Fl.) interviewed Homeland Security Investigations Chief Katrina W. Berger. Some fascinating new information about foiled shooter Ryan Routh emerged.

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CLIP: Rep. Matt Gaetz questions HomeSec Investigations Director Berger on Ryan Routh (5:08).

Director Berger first confirmed the fact that last year, Customs and Border Patrol had found Routh suspicious when he re-entered the country, and referred Routh’s file to Homeland Security as a suspect. But then, as always, the trail went cold. In the clip, Representative Gaetz reads from the CBP memo on Routh:

“They (CBP) say in their memo, ‘the suspect is a US citizen who traveled to Kiev, Ukraine, for three months to help recruit soldiers from Afghanistan, Moldova, and Taiwan, to fight in the Ukrainian war against Russia. Subject stated he does not get paid for his recruiting efforts, and all his work for the Ukrainian government is strictly volunteer work. Subject stated that he obtains money from his wife to help fund his trips to Ukraine.’”
What’s that? His wife! We hadn’t heard of this person before. She’s been completely scrubbed from corporate media. How is it that corporate media has failed not only to interview this person but even to mention her?

Pasting lots of pieces together, Routh apparently has recently remarried, to a woman named Kathleen Shaffer. In addition to the CBP report, Shaffer’s name pops up in a few key places. She evidently helped edit Routh’s book, and she ran a small GoFundMe for his Ukrainian adventures. Social media citizen journalists connected Shaffer to the LinkedIn page to a same-named person who fit her profile and lives in Hawaii.

If it’s her, Kathleen works for a giant, international, publicly traded company you never heard of called Maximus.

According to its LinkedIn profile, Maximus Corporation —just wait, you can’t make this stuff up— is headquartered at 1600 Tysons Blvd, McLean, Virginia. Just six miles to the Northwest of Maximus HQ lies Langley, Virginia, where the United States Central Intelligence Agency is located:

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It gets even better.

Maximus’s sparse profile on LinkedIn claims the company employs “10,000+”. The company’s website, Maximus.com, describes the company’s services like this:

image 8.png
I defy you to explain exactly what the heck this company does from that description. But I bet it involves tons of money previously owned by taxpayers. Fortunately, Maximus has a YouTube explainer video linked right on its home page. I’ll give you one guess what is most heavily featured in its short promo video. Covid vaccines. I told you that you can’t make this stuff up. And wait till you see what else they say, like about helping relocate ‘desperate asylum seekers’ into the US:

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CLIP: Maximus — Performing at the speed of government need (1:37).

In the clip, Maximum brags about training twenty thousand CDC workers, training them about the covid shots within the first 60 days. So it was in the covid shot deal right out of the gate, up to its corporate neck. That’s who trained the CDC. In another, more recent video, Maximus describes helping the Department of Defense “modernize” its technology systems.

ChatGPT said “Maximus Corporation has significant connections to the U.S. security state.”

It is difficult to imagine what unemployed ex-contractor Ryan Routh and Ms. Shaffer might have in common. But love is a mysterious thing. Assuming we have the correct Kathleen Shaffer in Hawaii who funded Ryan Routh’s Ukrainian adventures, it is very weird she works for a murky, security state-connected, multinational corporation located just down the street from the Central Intelligence Agency.

It takes longer to drop the kids off at school than drive from Maximus to CIA HQ. I’m just saying.

But nevermind! It’s probably just a coincidence. Matt Gaetz’s interview of Director Berger ended with his question why, like the FBI before it, Homeland Security also declined to follow up with investigating Ryan Routh. Director Berger didn’t know, but promised to find out.

3
September 20, 2024
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China’s New Revitalization Program
The northeast offers more advantages than central China but won’t solve the country’s broader problems.
By: Victoria Herczegh

In the first weeks of September, dozens of senior Chinese officials from high-profile positions throughout the country were tapped to take up new positions in the rust belt of the northeast. Their task is simple if not easy: to use what they’ve learned in Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu to revitalize a once powerful region, bringing it closer to technical autonomy and thus narrowing the gap between it and the wealthier coastal regions. In political terms, the new initiative is meant to bring unity to the country and mitigate the risk of social unrest.

If this sounds familiar, it should. The goal is practically the same as that of President Xi Jinping’s flagship rural revitalization plan, which aimed to uplift the poorer, agricultural areas of central China. That project now exists only in occasional government statements. Apparently, Beijing has decided that the northeast can unlock more economic potential. The problem is that though the rust belt may well serve the government’s more immediate goals relating to high-tech and military development, its revitalization could widen the wealth gap further, aggravating the very problem the experiment is supposed to solve.

It’s no secret that the government has paid less attention to its peripheral regions than its more prominent ones. In the era of Mao Zedong’s economic planning, the region’s industrial capacity was a key driver of Chinese economic growth. But since Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms, the northeast’s economic performance has underwhelmed, its share of the national gross domestic product dropping from 13.3 percent in 1978 to 4.8 percent in 2023. Several factors contributed to the region’s decline. A structural shift occurred from heavy industries such as machinery to light industries such as textiles. After China became a member of the World Trade Organization and participated more in international trade, it began to prioritize labor-intensive industries over capital-intensive ones, thus promoting the economic output of places like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. The northeast simply could not afford to make the transition, especially if transitioning meant forsaking its traditional productive capacities.

But in light of China’s recent economic downturns, it seems as though Beijing can no longer afford to ignore the rust belt. Xi’s plans aside, the effort to boost provincial economies is part of a 2023 government strategy. That year, Premier Li Qiang conducted several inspection tours in the northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, visiting aircraft, automotive and agricultural smart equipment manufacturing companies and calling for improved smart production, greater innovation and, notably, an increased role for state-owned enterprises. (The installation of new officials is just the first step in this process.) It’s not that the state’s priorities have fundamentally changed – old-school steel mills may be important, but they don’t suit China’s current needs – it’s that the state wants to transform traditional industrial centers into modernized high-tech hubs capable of jumpstarting China’s economic recovery. The government believes that the region’s resources and solid traditional industrial foundations are ideally suited to boost tech innovation and manufacturing, and that its proximity to Russia will only increase its odds of successfully developing a modern, state-of-the-art military.

It therefore seems as though Beijing has every reason to finally focus on the northeast. This is great news for the northeast, but remember that the government, wittingly or not, tends to abandon such initiatives at a moment’s notice. Even Xi’s rural revitalization plan, the headline project of his five-year plan, wasn’t immune to Beijing’s political vagaries. It was always a front for wealth redistribution, with the central government cracking down on the richest companies and individuals that accumulated wealth – often not fully legally – and moving the capital to the central region in need. The regulatory crackdowns did, in fact, result in funds being allocated to the agricultural modernization of central China. But when the government realized the importance of sci-tech in emerging economic trends – not to mention its importance in building self-sufficient supply chains – it ended its regulatory crackdowns and began to pour money into the wealthy and largely coastal tech hubs.

Similarly – and, technically, an initiative under the umbrella of rural revitalization – the relocation of youths from big coastal hubs to second- and third-tier rural cities is far less urgent than it once was. That thousands of fresh graduates in large cities struggled to find jobs commensurate with their qualifications made moving them, through various subsidies, to secure, well-paid positions in rural China seem like a no-brainer. Yet the initiative yielded few, if any, results. Most young graduates were reluctant to leave the cities, choosing instead to keep looking for big-city employment and accepting the financial support of their families. Some even took lower-paying blue-collar jobs to remain in the city.

Knowing that rural revitalization has failed in central China, or at least failed to yield the desired results, Beijing is hoping for a better outcome in the northeast. The program there bears some similarities to the revitalization plan, offering, for example, financial incentives to recent graduates who want to move there. Though it’s unclear whether the program will succeed, its advocates hope that its existing resources and capacities will make it an easier win than central China was. But even if it does succeed, providing a near-term boost to economic activity, it’s unlikely to do much for the beleaguered center.

Rural central China seems to be getting the same treatment the northeast got when the country shifted from a market economy to a planned economy, with its development being sidelined for the sake of short-term economic gains. Focusing on certain regions more than others could be advantageous during times of economic prosperity. But China today is facing a downturn, meaning ignoring a key area of the country could come with disastrous effects. Throughout Chinese history, unrest has been most likely to occur in poor rural communities, where feelings of dissatisfaction and marginalization prevail. The failure of the government's rural revitalization plan could exacerbate these tendencies, creating a hotbed for dissent.

Economic growth is important for China, but internal stability is even more critical. The Chinese leadership thus needs to turn its attention back to the country's most vulnerable region, as sacrificing it for the sake of serving more immediate interests could result in instability. Similar to its strategy in the northeast, redesigning the core ideas of the rural revitalization plan and deploying experienced officials from wealthy regions could help the government score some wins and keep at least some of its promises to rural China.

8


https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/our-out-of-control-federal-law-enforcement-agencies/

August 2024 | Volume 53, Issue 8

Our Out-of-Control Federal Law Enforcement Agencies
Ryan Cleckner
Businessman, Attorney, and Author

 
 
The following is adapted from a talk delivered on July 23, 2024, at Hillsdale College’s Blake Center for Faith and Freedom in Somers, Connecticut.

In March of this year, Bryan Malinowski, the executive director of the Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport in Little Rock, Arkansas, was killed by agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) during a pre-dawn raid of his home. It was an unwarranted and indefensible killing of a kind that should never, ever happen in a free country like the United States. Because we have a media that no longer serves in its traditional role as a government watchdog, this incident was not widely reported. Because too many members of Congress no longer take seriously their responsibility to protect the rights of those who elect them, the ATF has suffered no repercussions.

How and why did this killing take place?

Bryan Malinowski grew up as an avid collector of coins and, more recently, firearms. He took to displaying his coin and firearm collections at gun shows, where he would occasionally purchase and sell firearms.

Under federal law, it is perfectly legal to buy and sell firearms as a collector or hobbyist, even without a Federal Firearms License (FFL). An individual doesn’t need to obtain an FFL unless he is “engaged in the business” of selling firearms. Congress has defined “engaged in the business” to apply to those who deal in firearms “as a regular course of trade or business with the principal objective of livelihood and profit” as opposed to those who make “occasional sales, exchanges, or purchases of firearms for the enhancement of a personal collection or for a hobby.”

Malinowski already had a livelihood—indeed, as the executive director of the airport, he was one of the highest paid city employees in Little Rock. Buying or selling firearms was something he did in his spare time. So it makes sense that he did not see the need to obtain a license. At some point, however, the ATF came to the view that Malinowski had crossed over the nebulous line from hobbyist to “engaged in the business” and that he therefore did need to obtain an FFL.

Leaving aside the question of whether the ATF was right about this—a moot issue now, given the fact that the ATF killed him—the obvious thing for the ATF to have done was to contact Malinowski through the mail, by phone, or in person, to inform him that it had determined he needed a license. If it had, he could have decided whether to stop selling firearms or to pay the nominal annual fee of $65 for an FFL.

But the ATF didn’t do the obvious thing and contact Malinowski. Here is what we know happened instead. Multiple undercover ATF agents were sent to observe Malinowski selling firearms at a gun show, a GPS tracker was secretly placed on Malinowski’s car, and a search warrant was obtained for his home. Malinowski wasn’t home the first time ATF agents showed up to serve the warrant, so the second time they left nothing to chance. Dressed in SWAT gear, together with Little Rock police, they showed up in ten vehicles at Malinowski’s house before dawn on March 19. They cut the power to his house and put a piece of tape over the doorbell camera so that Malinowski couldn’t see who they were. Less than a minute later, after an exchange of gunfire, Malinowski was dead. And in violation of both ATF and Little Rock police policies requiring body cameras, not one of the law enforcement agents involved in this deadly raid was wearing an activated camera.

After the killing, Malinowski’s wife was forcibly taken outside in her nightgown in 34-degree weather and was kept outside for over four hours despite multiple requests to see her husband and use the bathroom. In an audio recording from a police vehicle she can be heard sobbing, asking why they killed her husband, and insisting that the agents must have the wrong house because she and her husband are honest, law-abiding people.

***

What happened to Bryan Malinowski is not an isolated incident. It is part of a growing pattern of KGB-style behavior by U.S. federal law enforcement agencies. Let me mention briefly just a few other cases.

Back during the Trump presidency, Roger Stone, a Republican political consultant since the Nixon era, was targeted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller for obstruction of justice and making false statements regarding the WikiLeaks release of Hillary Clinton’s emails. These are non-violent crimes, and the nattily dressed, 72-year-old Stone has given no indication over his long life that he is prone to violence of any kind. But on January 25, 2019, the FBI conducted a pre-dawn raid at Stone’s Fort Lauderdale home in a manner befitting a raid on an armed compound of a Mexican drug lord. Nearly 30 heavily armed agents swarmed Stone’s home at 6:00 a.m. With guns aimed at his entryway, they pounded on the door until Stone showed up barefoot in his pajamas. Topping things off, there was a boat offshore behind Stone’s home manned by armed agents and equipped with floodlights.

In October 2021, pro-life activist Mark Houck and his twelve-year-old son were conducting a weekly prayer vigil near an abortion clinic in Philadelphia. Their standard practice was to hand out literature and, if women were interested, to help them find alternatives to abortion. Bruce Love, a volunteer escort at the facility, began to harass Houck’s son using vulgar language. During the ensuing argument, Houck pushed Love and Love fell to the ground. Philadelphia police reviewed the incident and no charges were filed. Love later pressed charges, but the case was reviewed and dismissed. Soon thereafter, Houck received notice that he was the target of a federal grand jury investigation for violating the FACE Act, which prohibits blocking access to abortion clinics. Houck’s attorney offered video evidence that Houck had not blocked access. He also told federal prosecutors that if they insisted on bringing charges, Houck would voluntarily surrender. The FBI ignored the offer, and on September 23, 2022, at 6:30 a.m., roughly two dozen FBI agents and Pennsylvania law enforcement officers showed up at Houck’s home in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Houck’s wife and seven children were still sleeping when five agents armed with rifles, tactical gear, and battering rams, began pounding on the door. Additional agents surrounded the property. Houck came to the door and his wife wandered down in her bathrobe. Houck was not allowed to say goodbye to his screaming children. Taken to a federal building, he was belly chained and had his wrists shackled to a table for six hours. Four months later a jury found him not guilty.

Craig Robertson was a 75-year-old Air Force veteran from Provo, Utah, likely demented, who made online threats against elected leaders, including President Biden. Neighbors described Robertson as “barely [able to] get around with a cane.” But instead of confronting Robertson on his regular outings to church or to the grocery store, the FBI again decided on a pre-dawn raid. At 6:00 a.m. on August 9, 2023, FBI agents first attempted to break down Robertson’s door with a battering ram, then resorted to using an armored vehicle to smash a hole in his house. The FBI claims that Robertson shot at agents before its agents shot and killed him—though the agency has refused to release any bodycam footage. Robertson’s body was moved to the sidewalk and left unattended for hours.

Other cases could be cited—including the FBI’s unprecedented raid on President Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida, in which the use of “deadly force” was authorized—but the point is clear enough. Such actions by federal law enforcement agencies go far beyond what is justified by law and custom in America. The agencies involved respond to criticism by saying that their actions are “by the book.” But this lie, parroted by corporate media, is preposterous on its face. If such a book exists, it represents a radical departure from the historical constraints of constitutional authority and the idea of equality before the law.

I served in the military as a Special Operations sniper and Sniper Team leader in 1st Ranger Battalion. I could have gone on to become a sharpshooter on a police SWAT team or even joined the FBI or one of the other three-letter federal agencies that were widely considered, in the past, to be the cream of the crop in terms of law enforcement. Sadly, they are no longer thought of in the same way.

The flip side of the increasingly thuggish character of these agencies is their diminished effectiveness in fulfilling their core missions, to the point that the American public cannot help but notice. Consider the recent assassination attempt—very nearly successful—on President Trump. The U.S. Secret Service and the FBI are being anything but transparent about their investigations and seem to be going out of their way to make it as difficult as possible for Congress and the public to learn what happened. But the most obvious fact about it, which cannot be covered up, is that the Secret Service allowed a 20-year-old shooter to access the most ideal location for a sniper, even after he had been spotted acting suspiciously and using a laser rangefinder and had been watched for almost 30 minutes. This alone is enough to know the Secret Service that day was more Keystone Cop than cream of the crop.

***

In closing, let me return to the agency I know best, having a lot of first-hand experience dealing with it—the ATF. Like all these federal law enforcement agencies, the ATF was created by Congress and is tasked with executing laws passed by Congress. Congress, in turn, represents and acts on behalf of the American people. In this context, the first and most important thing in bringing the ATF and these other agencies back under control is to impress firmly upon them the fact that they are accountable to Congress and are the servants and not the enemies of the American people—and in the case of the ATF, the fact that one of the people it would still be serving, had ATF agents not killed him, is Bryan Malinowski.

Most of the cases in which I have dealt with the ATF have to do with companies that are licensed to sell firearms—companies that have FFLs—and are under threat of losing their license and thus being put out of business. The Gun Control Act of 1968 is the main body of law concerning this, and in 1986 this law was amended to allow the ATF to revoke an FFL only for a “willful” violation of the law. The willfulness standard was added “to ensure that licenses are not revoked for inadvertent errors or technical mistakes.” In recent years, however, the ATF has adopted what it calls a “Zero Tolerance Policy” that flies in the face of the willfulness standard—and therefore in the face of laws passed by Congress on behalf of the American people.

The ATF’s egregious treatment of Point Blank Firearms, a Michigan company that it is trying to put out of business, provides an example of the harm caused by ATF overreach.

During compliance inspections, the ATF is largely concerned with determining three things: if there are any missing firearms, if all the required records have been filled out and kept properly, and if the licensed company is doing its job as the front line of defense against the criminal possession of firearms.

In the case of Point Blank, the ATF makes three claims, one of which amounts to an inadvertent clerical error. The other two are provably false. The first is that Point Blank was missing firearms transaction forms, which, if true, would be serious. These forms are filled out by the purchaser of a firearm and contain information about the gun, the purchaser, and the background check results. They are the only way for the ATF to prove who ended up with a firearm or who possibly lied on the form. But every single form at Point Blank has been accounted for, complete with the customer’s signature and background check information.

The second claim is that Point Blank transferred a firearm to someone more than 30 days after his background check was run. Again, if true, this is a violation of the law. However, it has been proven that the firearm was transferred on the very same day as the background check. Yet the Detroit field division of the ATF continues to threaten Point Blank with the loss of its license.

Point Blank is a client of mine, so I understand if you don’t take my word on faith. But if you look into it, you will see that the ATF is not only overreaching, but is violating the very rules it requires everyone else to follow. Indeed, of the many ATF inspections I’ve been a part of, not once have the ATF’s records been accurate.

Do you remember Operation Fast and Furious, a program in which the ATF used licensed firearms dealers to funnel thousands of American firearms to Mexican drug cartels? Due to sheer incompetence, most of those firearms were lost and never recovered, and none of the high-level Mexican drug cartel members who ended up with the firearms have been arrested. When U.S. Border Patrol Agent Brian Terry was killed in a shootout at the border, the weapon that was used to kill him was one of the guns that the ATF intentionally gave to the drug cartels. Needless to say, no heads ever rolled at the ATF as a result.

Another area in which the ATF is violating federal law is in keeping a firearms registry. The Firearms Owners Protection Act passed by Congress in 1986 specifically prohibits the ATF from having an electronic database of firearms and their owners. But Georgia Congressman Andrew Clyde recently visited the ATF records center in West Virginia and discovered that the ATF currently has over 900 million such records scanned and stored electronically.

So how do we regain control over the ATF and other federal law enforcement agencies? It is not going to happen through congressional hearings that provide a forum for political showboating and partisan posturing and that go nowhere. We the American people must demand that Congress, on our behalf, either reassert its authority over these agencies in a way to make it stick or else abolish the agencies and start anew.

If we don’t, Bryan Malinowski will have died in vain and the rest of us, as if we are no longer Americans, will be looking over our shoulders.


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As a matter of policy, IMHO he has flipped from the right POV to the wrong one.

19
Politics & Religion / Re: 2024
« on: September 19, 2024, 03:33:49 PM »
In addition to abortion, issues tht favor Kommie are health care (think of negotiating lower prices for drugs with Big Pharma and absence of alternative to Obamacare) and Green Issues-- including but not limited to Global Warming.

20
Politics & Religion / GPF: The Impact of the US Election on the Middle East
« on: September 19, 2024, 01:00:16 PM »


September 19, 2024
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The US Election and Its Impact on the Middle East
The outcome will also have implications beyond U.S. domestic policy.
By: Hilal Khashan

As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the United States faces several economic, social and political challenges that will play a decisive role in determining whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Inflation remains high, the gap between the haves and the have-nots is growing, and views on immigration and the border continue to polarize the public. But the election’s outcome will also have implications beyond U.S. domestic policy.

The overriding foreign policy matter at issue in this election concerns economic competition with China and the associated tensions in the South China Sea, through which one-third of global trade passes. Other foreign policy priorities include the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict and its regional repercussions. Though the divide between the Republicans and the Democrats on the Ukraine war might be irreconcilable, their differences on the Middle East, including the war in Gaza, are mostly minor. Apart from safeguarding the vital interests of the U.S., both presidential contenders will eschew deep involvement in Middle East affairs.

Determinants of U.S. Policy

Five constants drive the direction of U.S. policy toward the Middle East. The first is Israel’s security and the U.S. commitment to maintaining Israel's military superiority in the region, which is apparent from the state-of-the-art military hardware that Israel receives from the U.S. compared to the less advanced equipment delivered to other countries. The second constant relates to U.S. control of the region’s oil and ensuring its passage through the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb in order to reach international markets. U.S. commitment to this cause undermines any Iranian threats to block navigation through the Persian Gulf and Houthi threats to block access to the Red Sea. The third constant is the U.S. commitment to preventing Russia or China from dominating the region’s politics, a fact understood well by Middle Eastern countries. The fourth constant is ensuring the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. And the fifth focuses on combating terrorism.

The U.S. understands that given the complexity of Middle East politics, it cannot transform the region. It learned this lesson from the failures of its 2003 invasion of Iraq despite its heavy investment in democratization and reconstruction efforts. Its limited interest in the Middle East has driven its increasing desire to restrict its involvement there. This started when the U.S. intensified its pivot to Asia, an effort that began during Barack Obama’s presidency.

Moreover, U.S. voters (with the exception of Arab and Muslim Americans) are preoccupied with problems that have nothing to do with the Middle East. The enormous interest of activists and the media in the Gaza war does not reflect the priorities of voters themselves.

Straightforward Republican Approach

If Trump wins the presidency, he will pursue a foreign policy based on “America First” principles, including by signing trade deals, displaying a reluctance to engage in military interventions abroad and reducing international commitments, including to NATO.

In the Middle East, Trump has shown little interest in the crises in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, preferring to focus on domestic challenges instead. On the Israel-Palestinian conflict, he has shown little enthusiasm for a two-state solution and prefers to impose quick solutions without focusing on their feasibility.

Trump will likely seek direct normalization deals between Israel and its neighbors (especially Saudi Arabia), similar to those he concluded between the Israeli government and other Gulf states in 2020. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is eager to sign a peace treaty with Israel, even without an Israeli commitment to establishing a Palestinian state – though he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seem to have put the project on hold pending the outcome of the U.S. election, preferring to give credit to Trump rather than Harris for its success. Trump could also consider signing a formal defense treaty with Saudi Arabia to prod it to make peace with Israel, but this would be challenging considering that getting the support of two-thirds of the Senate seems unlikely. After making peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Trump will likely pressure Qatar, Kuwait and Oman to conclude similar deals.

As for relations with Iran, Trump will adopt a more hostile policy, but he is unlikely to resort to military action, relying instead on sanctions and economic pressure. He has hinted at the possibility of a deal with Tehran, but only on his terms. It’s unclear if the Iranians can afford another four years of austere sanctions under a second Trump term, so they could be amenable to striking a deal, facilitated by the recent election of a reformist Iranian president. Despite the apparent different approaches between the Republicans and the Democrats on Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxies, the core U.S. perspective on Iran cuts across the two political parties. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and although Biden pledged to restore it if he won the presidency, lengthy negotiations in Vienna did not yield results, and the Trump-era sanctions remain in effect.

Nuanced Democratic Approach

Most Republican congressional candidates who won their primary races support Israel unconditionally. In contrast, Democratic congressional candidates adopted a more nuanced approach. They invariably voiced their commitment to Israel’s security and well-being but with specific qualifications about human rights, the suffering of Gaza’s civilian population and a two-state solution. Still, Democratic candidates avoid extreme criticism of Israel based on the fact that results in the primary elections demonstrate that anti-Israel views are still unpopular among mainstream Democratic supporters. Protests at college campuses against Israel’s conduct in Gaza neither shape public opinion nor determine the Democratic Party’s policy choices.

The divide among Democrats on this issue results from profound differences in the views of the demographic groups that make up the party’s base, with younger, non-white voters being more sympathetic to the Palestinians and more critical of Israel, while older whites are more pro-Israel. Republican support for Israel, meanwhile, has increased with the surging influence of right-wing Christian groups within the party.

Since the inception of the Gaza war, Democratic members of Congress have been pressing to end the war and provide aid to Palestinians trapped in Gaza. However, Democrats’ criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu antedate the Gaza war. President Joe Biden and Democratic members of Congress opposed Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul and the appointment of two radical lawmakers to Cabinet.

Arguably sympathetic to the case presented by Palestinian rights activists, Harris has been unable to reconcile the demands of the pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli sides of the party. Pro-Palestinian activists felt that the Democratic Party failed to address their demands for primetime speaking slots during the 2024 Democratic National Convention, further exacerbating their feelings of marginalization.

If Harris wins the election, her foreign policy will adhere to the broad lines of the Democratic Party, such as defending democratic principles and human rights, strengthening international alliances, confronting global challenges such as climate change and nuclear proliferation, cooperating with allies, especially in NATO, and paying particular attention to confronting Russia in Ukraine and curtailing Chinese influence in the Pacific region.

As vice president, Harris avoided talking about strategic policies and initiatives in the Middle East. But if she wins the presidency, she will be forced to deal with the region’s intractable issues. It’s unlikely that U.S. support for Israel will witness a dramatic shift if Harris wins office. Still, in recent months, she has taken steps to distinguish herself slightly from Biden. She was the first senior U.S. official to call for a cease-fire in Gaza, opposing the idea that a deal can be reached only after Hamas is destroyed. She stressed Israel’s right to defend itself but chose to boycott Netanyahu’s speech before Congress in July.

Harris did not want the Gaza war to be one of the main issues in her election campaign. She chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who has limited foreign policy experience, as her running mate to sway uncommitted Democrats to vote for her. (Nearly 19 percent of voters in the Minnesota Democratic primary for president voted “uncommitted.”) Walz has recognized Israel’s right to defend itself and distinguished between Hamas, which he condemned for the Oct. 7 attack, and the civilians who have been caught in the crossfire in Gaza.

Ultimately, Harris’ position on ongoing tensions in the Middle East will be uncertain. During her tenure in the Senate, Harris consistently voted against arms deals with Saudi Arabia and U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. In 2020, she stated that the United States must reevaluate its relationship with the Saudis to defend U.S. values and interests, though she did not specify which values and interests she was referring to. Harris’ policies will likely mirror Biden’s. Her goals will include strengthening security relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia and cooperating in technology and the green energy transition. In the context of the ongoing escalation between Iran and Israel following the assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Harris is likely to adopt a balanced approach toward Iran and stress the need to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, pending the outcome of the fighting between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Limits of U.S. Foreign Policy

Many in the Middle East understand the limits of U.S. policy in their region. They support U.S. engagement when it comes to combating terrorism and keeping sea lanes open for trade. They also accept, though grudgingly, the unpopular constants of U.S. policy, especially Israeli exceptionalism and regional supremacy.

They also recognize the United States’ reluctance to engage militarily in the region on matters that do not directly intersect with its own interests. In 2012, Syrian President Bashar Assad admitted to having chemical weapons but said they were meant for use only against foreign aggression. Obama warned him against using them against his people, saying he would be crossing a red line. But before the year’s end, Assad’s forces used sarin gas in rebel-held areas near Damascus, killing 1,400 people. The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations supported punishing Assad’s army for committing the massacre, but failing to secure authorization from either chamber, Obama opted against using force against the Syrian regime.

In September 2019, the Houthis targeted Saudi oil installations. They expected the Trump administration to defend the kingdom, but it did not. The Saudis viewed the Houthi attacks as a threat to international oil supplies, a view that Washington did not share because the incident had little impact on U.S. oil imports. That such attacks disrupted the flow of Saudi oil to Europe, China and India did not bother Washington.

The United Arab Emirates says it does not expect to resume talks with the U.S. over a multibillion-dollar deal to buy F-35 fighter jets regardless of who wins the election. Trump had signed an agreement to supply the UAE with the advanced aircraft, which no other country in the Middle East has besides Israel, before the end of his presidency in early 2021. The Emiratis now say the same factors that caused the suspension of the talks when Biden took office still exist, so they do not plan to reopen negotiations.

Apart from achieving vital national interests, the Middle East is of little interest to the United States and U.S. policymakers. The region accounts for less than 5 percent of the world’s economy, much of which comes from hydrocarbon exports. This lack of interest gives the region’s authoritarian leaders impunity to violate human rights and oppress their people.

22


China and Japan. A Chinese aircraft carrier for the first time passed between the Japanese islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote in Okinawa prefecture, entering Japan's so-called contiguous zone, according to Japan’s Foreign Ministry. The Liaoning carrier and two accompanying ships also sailed near the coast of disputed Japanese-administered islets called the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Tokyo called the move "totally unacceptable." This comes less than a month after a Chinese naval survey vessel entered Japanese waters.

24
Thought I had covered this one before  :-D

Forward Observer.

25
Politics & Religion / PP: Trump flips to now oppose SALT cap
« on: September 19, 2024, 12:30:56 PM »
Disappointing.

====================

Trump now opposes SALT cap: During his first presidential term, Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which included a $10,000 cap on state and local taxes (SALT) that could be deducted from federal taxes. High-tax Democrat-run states like New York and California loudly objected to the measure because they like having low-tax states subsidize their high taxes and spending. Republicans support the cap because it prevents the wealthy within these blue states from avoiding the high taxes they vote for. However, Trump now appears to be flip-flopping on the issue, arguing for eliminating the SALT cap. On Truth Social, Trump posted, "I will turn it around, get SALT back, lower your Taxes, and so much more." Beyond the post, there has been no further clarification of Trump's position on the issue. The apparent motive for the flip-flop may be in response to a number of Republican representatives in New York who have been calling for restoring SALT. The problem is that restoring SALT would negatively impact the national debt.

26
Politics & Religion / FO: State Dept cover up of Malley and Iranians
« on: September 19, 2024, 12:14:31 PM »
The State Department Inspector General said officials failed to follow standard procedures when they suspended Iran special envoy Robert Malley’s security clearance in April 2023, allowing Malley to continue accessing classified information after his clearance was suspended. According to Congressional staffers who attended a closed door briefing from the Inspector General, the State Department worked to shield Malley from embarrassment and misled lawmakers about Malley’s clearance suspension

27
Politics & Religion / FO: State Dept coverup of Malley and the Iranians
« on: September 19, 2024, 12:13:54 PM »


The State Department Inspector General said officials failed to follow standard procedures when they suspended Iran special envoy Robert Malley’s security clearance in April 2023, allowing Malley to continue accessing classified information after his clearance was suspended. According to Congressional staffers who attended a closed door briefing from the Inspector General, the State Department worked to shield Malley from embarrassment and misled lawmakers about Malley’s clearance suspension

28
Politics & Religion / FO: If Reps take Senate
« on: September 19, 2024, 12:12:04 PM »


(1) GOP TO PUSH ECONOMIC BREAKAWAY FROM CHINA: Sen. James Risch (R-ID) said Congress has “failed to act in several areas” to counter the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Republicans will push to pass his STRATEGIC Act if they take the Senate in 2025.

The STRATEGIC Act would strengthen enforcement of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), establish the Global Infrastructure Investment Fund to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and encourage U.S. companies to diversify supply chains away from China.

Why It Matters: U.S. officials and lawmakers anticipate a crisis or conflict with China by 2027, and currently U.S. supply chains are vulnerable to disruption. While this bill intends to secure critical supply chains against disruption due to a crisis or conflict, moving U.S. manufacturing and imports away from China could be interpreted by China as preparation for a conflict, ratcheting up tensions ahead of 2027. A recent bipartisan report on the National Defense Strategy found the U.S. is ill-prepared for a conflict with China. The window for deterring a conflict or crisis in the Indo-Pacific is closing due to Chinese military advantage in the region, and the Chinese cyber threat to U.S. critical infrastructure. – R.C.

29
Science, Culture, & Humanities / FO: Blackrock on Retirement
« on: September 19, 2024, 08:48:49 AM »


(7) BLACKROCK: TIME TO RETHINK RETIREMENT: A recent BlackRock survey shows 91% of Texas registered voters expect a retirement crisis, as 32% say they have no retirement savings despite expecting to retire. Another 18% have less than $50,000 in retirement savings, and 62% have less than $150,000 saved for retirement.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s annual letter to shareholders was entitled, “Time to rethink retirement,” where he called for a new national “organized, high-level effort to ensure that future generations can live out their final years with dignity.” He added that, “t’s a bit crazy that our anchor idea for the right retirement age – 65 years old – originates from the time of the Ottoman Empire.”

Why It Matters: Sweeping changes are coming to Social Security and retirement under the next administration.
BlackRock, half of whose assets are in retirement management, wants to play a role in reshaping what retirement looks like.
The facts are pretty stark. According to a 2022 Senate Budget Committee hearing on Saving and Expanding Social Security, 55 percent of seniors are trying to survive on less than $25,000 a year while around half of Americans over the age of 55 have no retirement savings at all.

Officially, Social Security and Medicare both are on pace to run out of money by 2030 and 2032, respectively.

But those are optimistic dates due to the underlying assumptions by the Congressional Budget Office, which assumes 3% interest rates (5.33% today, but dropping), a 3-4% budget deficit (7% as of July). CBO also does not account for the economic effects of a recession or a prolonged period of stagflation. On Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told investors, “I would say the worst outcome is stagflation—recession, higher inflation. And by the way, I wouldn’t take it off the table.” Dimon added that deficit spending under the next administration would continue to be inflationary.

Speaking to clients this past spring, billionaire “Bond King” Jeff Gundlach said, “I think in the 2028 election, there’ll be nothing else. How are we going to deal with this? … We have $212 trillion of unfunded liabilities. Do you know what the total assets are in the United States? $190 trillion. So we’re what you call ‘bankrupt.’ If we were a hedge fund, we’d be praying every night that we don’t get a margin call because our liabilities exceed our assets.”

Bottom Line: Social Security and Medicare may both face a reckoning during the next presidential administration, and their fates may hinge on which party controls the White House and Congress after January 2025. – M.S.

30
Politics & Religion / FO: Losing Taiwan = 5-10% cut in US GDP
« on: September 19, 2024, 08:24:28 AM »


(6) NVIDIA TO MOVE PRODUCTION FROM WARTIME TAIWAN: Speaking at a conference last week, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said his company could move production of graphics processing units (GPU) from Taiwan in the event of a war with China. “f TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company] were compromised, supply would continue, although [the GPUs] wouldn’t be as good,” he said.

Why It Matters: Citadel Security founder Ken Griffin warned earlier this year that losing semiconductor production in Taiwan would result in an immediate 5-10% cut to U.S. GDP and a severe recession, or possibly worse. We continue to see Taiwan-based firms discussing plans to repatriate production to other countries, including the United States. Notably, all of NVIDIA’s GPUs are manufactured by TSMC foundries. – M.S

31
Politics & Religion / Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« on: September 19, 2024, 06:48:11 AM »
I saw it asserted that this in part was because there were landlines in the bill that would have handcuffed future Trump actions.

I have no idea either way.

32
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Media vs. Peace?
« on: September 19, 2024, 06:44:17 AM »
The Media vs. Ukrainian Peace?
The anti-Trump agitprop around Putin’s war isn’t helping anybody.
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
Sept. 17, 2024 5:11 pm ET



There’s a reason, after a previous assassination attempt, I wrote a column headlined “Rethinking Trump and the Ukraine War” and mentioned the trickle, which since has become a flood, of U.S. government pseudo-crackdowns on Russian propaganda. These crackdowns seem mainly designed to flog the idea to U.S. domestic voters that the Kremlin backs Donald Trump.

I also drew a connection to the “witless polemic,” as I called it, of analysts who think it advances Ukraine’s cause to paint a likely U.S. president and his 75 million voters as Putin supporters.

The latest would-be assassin, Ryan Routh, may well have been a fan of such agitprop. He lacked Lee Harvey Oswald’s military training but not his wannabe aspirations, having traveled to Ukraine to pose, apparently in unwelcome fashion, as an organizer of foreign legionnaires.

Which brings us to today’s subject. Even without a second attempt on Mr. Trump, that subject would have been the Biden administration’s looming, unavoidable and consequential decision about how heavily to involve U.S. capabilities in Ukraine’s expanding campaign to strike targets inside Russia.

The decision involves risks. It needs to be made as part of a plan, not as another episode in the “no, no, no, yes” routine that has defined Joe Biden’s response to Ukrainian aid requests. Indeed, neither Kamala Harris nor Mr. Trump should be especially easy with Mr. Biden (or his aides) making so pregnant a call whose consequences they would inherit.

Vladimir Putin is again threatening escalation but he hasn’t, despite what you’re hearing, threatened nuclear use, which would be strategically grotesque even for him, as the boy who cried wolf so many times he made it impossible for his adversaries to know when he meant it.

The moment has also arrived when Ukraine remembers that its interests aren’t the same as U.S. interests. The most important aim behind its Kursk offensive may be the least spoken: As long as Kyiv holds Russian territory, nobody will impose, and Russia can hardly accept, a freezing of current positions, as suggested by Trump running mate JD Vance.

The signaling has been no less elaborate on the Western side, with noisy consultations and travels, culminating in Friday’s meeting with Mr. Biden and the new British prime minister, who reportedly advocates allowing Ukraine to use NATO-supplied weapons to bring the war more deeply into Russia. From a distance, the signs are the sort that even might precede negotiations.

To U.S. strategists, understand, the current fighting is already superfluous and has been since Mr. Biden’s military chief bruited a cease-fire two years ago.

The victory that most serves the U.S. would be a deal that turns a hot war into a cold war while letting Washington shift its attention elsewhere (not an unfamiliar experience for U.S. allies). Already U.S. geostrategists are looking forward to wooing Mr. Putin from his Chinese captivity.

Complicating matters, some cease-fire advocates in the West go wrong, and get themselves rightly suspected of being Putin allies, by insisting Ukraine should be extorted to seek peace by cutting off American aid, as if this wouldn’t be an incentive for Mr. Putin to keep fighting.

The obvious path: Extort Ukraine’s compliance with a peace deal by piling on the aid commitments, to assure its long-term self-defense.

This isn’t a job for a lame duck, much less a U.S. president of uncertain cognitive function, much less the author of the U.S. strategy so far, which has all but amounted to coaxing Mr. Putin to dig himself deeper into a failed war.

From a cynical perspective, this made sense during Mr. Biden’s first term. He could avoid stating a definition of victory that he could be criticized for or judged against. Had he achieved the second term he sought, he would have to lay his cards on the table. That’s when Ukraine was likely to discover that, for all the media talk that possibly excited the alleged assassin Mr. Routh, the Biden objective isn’t different from the Trump objective. The only difference is the political interest that allows Mr. Trump to put into words what Mr. Biden won’t.

In a televised presidential debate, forms should be observed: Mr. Trump should have said (as he has before) that he told Mr. Putin to stay out of Ukraine and in that sense favors a Ukrainian victory. But war isn’t a sporting event. The Biden administration wished to defer responsibility, but an endgame to meld U.S. and Ukrainian interests is becoming a necessity perhaps even before the next president takes office.

This involves risk—Mr. Putin has his own endgame in mind though I imagine he no longer can believe in some giant reversal by which Ukraine doesn’t end up a heavily armed if unofficial ally of a strengthened and enlarged NATO.

But in another sign of how badly off-kilter this election has become, we may not discover until after Election Day whether Ms. Harris has any thoughts at all on what should happen next.

33
Politics & Religion / Abandoned by Biden-Harris, Philippines abandons shoal
« on: September 19, 2024, 06:30:38 AM »
In my opinion, this is a BFD-- this will be well noted by all players in the South China Sea.

==================

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/abandoned-by-biden-philippines-surrenders-shoal-to-china/ar-AA1qFKI5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=3432bf7891d8475784942257be553027&ei=10

Abandoned by Biden, Philippines surrenders shoal to China

The Chinese Communist Party represents by far the most serious threat of all global threats to security and prosperity. Under Xi Jinping, China seeks to replace a U.S.-led democratic international order built around the rule of law with a feudal mercantilist order led by China — an order in which the peace, trade, politics, and other concerns of nations are dependent upon obedience to Beijing.

It's critical, then, that the United States resist Chinese efforts to advance this agenda. Unfortunately, the U.S. is manifestly failing to do so in the South China Sea.

That's the lesson from the Philippines's decision to withdraw a coast guard vessel, Teresa Magbanua, from the Sabina Shoal. That shoal is 90 miles west of the Philippines, well within Manila's exclusive economic zone. It is 730 miles southeast of China's Hainan Island. But as with the near entirety of the South China Sea, China absurdly claims the shoal as part of its sovereign territory.
The Chinese coast guard had been actively harassing the Teresa Magbanua, preventing her resupply and leading to her crew's declining health. That left President Ferdinand Marcos's government with a choice between using force to break the de facto Chinese blockade or withdraw its ship. Absent U.S. military support, Marcos had little choice but to order withdrawal. While the Philippines says it will send another vessel to the shoal, the Chinese coast guard will do everything possible to obstruct that ship.

Related video: Committee to Study the Acquisition of Land by China holds first meeting (WMUR Manchester)
The Chinese spy balloon fly over in early 2023, along
WMUR Manchester
Committee to Study the Acquisition of Land by China holds first meeting
China has noticed the Biden administration's unwillingness to provide the Philippines with the U.S. Navy escort that would have allowed for Teresa Magbanua's replenishment. That matters because the only way that China will stop ramming, water cannon/high-intensity laser attacking, and otherwise harassing the Philippines's vessels is if the U.S. military threatens to stop it from doing so.

Yet whether it's the Sabina Shoal, the Scarborough Shoal or any other area of the Philippines's exclusive economic zone, President Joe Biden has been unwilling to take robust action. While he needs to send Navy destroyers to escort the Philippines's vessels, Biden settles for statements condemning China. How this comports with Biden's inaugural address pledge to be a "strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security" is left unexplained

China has understood well the lesson flowing from Biden's inaction.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Facing absent consequences for its imperialist aggression, China is escalating said aggression. It wants to dominate the South China Sea so that anyone who travels through or trades in these waters is dependent upon Beijing's to be able to keep doing so. Considering the $3 trillion in annual trade flows and the rich energy and fisheries that define these waters, China has good reason to maintain its pressure.

Why not when the commander in chief of the only military capable of deterring Chinese action is sleeping on the beach

35
Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« on: September 19, 2024, 06:24:56 AM »
For the record I ran across this in my files.  Probably it is several years old.

37
Politics & Religion / WT: China and Russia satellites ready to blind us
« on: September 19, 2024, 05:32:48 AM »
This is where war will be won or lost.   We do not really how dependent our strength is upon our ability to see first and act/react first.

======================



SPACE

China adds hundreds of satellites for use in war

Russia building nuclear weapon to destroy enemies’ assets in orbit

By Bill Gertz THE WASHINGTON TIMES

China’s military is rapidly building up space capabilities, including more than 970 recently deployed satellites that would support attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers, expeditionary forces and air wings during a conflict, a Space Force intelligence report says.

The intelligence report also reveals that Russia is building a nuclear space weapon capable of triggeringlarge-scale blasts that could destroy U.S. and other satellites.

China’s military deployments include 20 satellites launched from March through June, according to the unclassified space threat fact sheet. The satellites are designed to enable “long-range precision strikes against U.S. and allied forces.”

The People’s Liberation Army, China’s military, can use anti-satellite missiles, electronic jammers, robot grappling satellites and an orbiting space plane to attack and disrupt space-based information systems of U.S. and other militaries.

“Intelligence suggests the PLA likely sees counterspace operations as a means to deter and counter U.S. military intervention in a regional conflict,” the report said.

The intelligence report was released amid increasing concern over China’s war preparations.

On Monday, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall warned of the growing potential for conflict with China.

“I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not,” Mr. Kendall said at a conference hosted by the Air & Space Forces Association. “But

China launched a rocket in August carrying a reported 18 satellites as part of efforts to assert its military presence in space. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall warned this week of the growing potential for conflict with China.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so.”

China is increasing its “space order of battle” along with its counter-air capabilities, he said.

The Space Force headquarters intelligence unit produced the report, which is dated July 17.

The report says military writings indicate PLA forces are preparing to destroy, damage and interfere with reconnaissance and communications satellites to “blind and deafen the enemy.”

“China is the pacing challenge and is rapidly improving its space capabilities to track and target U.S. military forces,” the report states.

Anti-satellite weapons are currently capable of attacking U.S. and allied satellites in low, medium and geosynchronous orbits. Many strategic U.S. missile warning and communications satellites are deployed in geosynchronous orbits.

“This vital authoritative report shows just how dramatically and systematically China has built up its space and counterspace assets, and just how aggressively Russia has developed and postured its own,” said Andrew Erickson, a Naval War College professor of strategy who first disclosed the report.

“Of fundamental concern are the sheer number of satellites China now has in orbit, particularly for [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], as part of its systematically building out a comprehensive, capable reconnaissance-strike complex.”

China’s launch of hundreds of satellites since 2015 represents a 560% increase in its satellites in space, now estimated at 970. Of those, 490 are used for military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, with sensors that include electrooptical, multispectrum radar and radar frequency technology.

A March space threat report listed China’s total satellite fleet at 950, including 470 intelligence systems, indicating that the most recent 20 satellites are military systems.

In December, the PLA launched a Yaogan-41 in geosynchronous orbit about 22,000 miles above Earth. The remote-sensing system will “persistently monitor U.S. and allied forces in the region.”

China also has three reusable space planes with a capability similar to the secretive U.S. XB-37 space plane.

Two early Chinese space planes returned to Earth, and the third remains in orbit. “All three have released unidentified objects,” the report said.

China’s 2007 test of a ground-launched antisatellite missile blew up a low-Earth orbit weather satellite and left more than 2,700 pieces of orbiting debris.

The missile used in the test has been developed into an operational ground-based missile system intended for attacking low-Earth orbit satellites, and the PLA “actively trains on this system today,” the report said.

“Intelligence suggests China also likely intends to field [anti-satellite] weapons capable of destroying satellites up to [22,369 miles],” the report said.

A ballistic object launched by China 11 years ago reached 20,000 miles in space, suggesting Beijing has basic anti-satellite killing capabilities in high orbits.

Beijing has also shown it can use its inspection and repair satellites as weapons. The report cites the Shijian-21 satellite, which moved a defunct BeiDou navigation satellite to a graveyard high-level orbit in 2022. The Space Force warned that the system could “grapple” other satellites.

The Space Force has observed multiple Chinese maneuvering satellites conducting unusual, large and rapid movements in geosynchronous orbit, indicating tactics with multiple military applications, the report said.

The Chinese military also operates groundbased laser weapons that can disrupt or damage satellite sensors. The report said that by the midto late 2020s, the PLA could deploy higher-power lasers that can damage satellite structures.

Anti-satellite jammers are also practiced regularly during PLA exercises.

“Intelligence suggests the PLA may be developing jammers to target [satellite communications] over a range of frequencies, including U.S. military protected extremely-high-frequency systems,” the report said.

Mr. Erickson said the United States and its allies have capable countermeasures to Chinese space threats but noted that “it is no longer credible to claim that Beijing may lack essential architecture for targeting its long-range precision strike systems, which include the world’s most numerous conventional ballistic and cruise missiles.”

On Russian space arms, the report identifies several anti-satellite weapons, including the Nudol missile that blasted an orbiting satellite in a 2021 test, creating 1,500 pieces of debris.

“Russia is also developing a very concerning [anti-satellite] capability using a new satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon,” the report said.

The nuclear-armed satellite could threaten all satellites operated by countries and companies around the world, the report said, including vital space-based communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial and national security services.

Several orbiting Russian anti-satellite systems currently threaten U.S. systems, including a satellite- killing system launched in May that is in the same orbit as a U.S. satellite, the report said.

An ASAT prototype followed another U.S. satellite in 2019, the report said.

The Russian military also has an air-launched anti-satellite missile fired from a MiG-31 jet.

Moscow’s Peresvet laser weapon has been deployed with five strategic missile divisions since 2018. It is used to mask Russian missile deployments by blinding satellite sensors. More powerful lasers are expected by 2030, the report said.

“Even as Moscow backs space arms control negotiations, Russia is researching, developing, testing, and deploying counterspace systems to take advantage of a perceived vulnerability of U.S. military dependence on space,” the report said.

Mr. Erickson said Russia is engaged in “extremely aggressive” space weapons that discredit Moscow’s questionable efforts to conclude a space arms control agreement.

The use of a nuclear space weapon represents “an indiscriminate Sword of Damocles that would imperil satellites of all nations and entities, on which the world has come to rely for the most basic societal functions.”

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin must never be permitted to hold the world’s vital interests at risk in such a way,” he said.

The Space Force did not respond to a request for comment on the report

38
Politics & Religion / WT: Mexican Maffia approves killing TDA
« on: September 19, 2024, 05:27:38 AM »


Mexican Mafia approves killings of gang rivals flowing into U.S.

Tren de Aragua lured by Biden’s generous ‘parole’

By Stephen Dinan THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The Mexican Mafia, worried about the growing power and recklessness of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, has “greenlighted” killings of TdA members, said a homeland security expert who tracks cartel behavior.

Jarrod Sadulski said TdA has sent thousands of members across the border into the U.S. and has been encroaching on what the Mexican Mafia considers its territory. La Eme, as the mafia is known, has responded with the kill order.

“They’ve been greenlighted to murder them,” Mr. Sadulski said. His information comes from a former senior Sinaloa Cartel operative with ties to the Mexican Mafia, a coalition of Hispanic gangs that is primarily involved in drugs in the Southwest.

Tren de Aragua has become the face of crime amid the Biden border surge. Gang members have been implicated in some of the most high-profile cases over the past year. That includes a migrant mob attack on New York City police, the killing of university student Laken Riley in Georgia and the rape of a girl at a government-run migrant shelter in Massachusetts.

The gang has quickly expanded its reach into more mundane criminal enterprises, such as drug distribution and prostitution.

East Colfax Community Collective held a rally this month in Aurora, Colorado, to address chronic problems in the apartment buildings occupied by people displaced from their home countries in Central and South America.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

The arrival of a new gang is always touchy on the streets as the old players try to figure out a new balance. They must decide whether to ignore the newcomer, try to co-opt it, take it over or go to war.

That La Eme chose war is not surprising, said John Fabbricatore, a gang expert and retired senior executive at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“You’re going to see a lot of brushback from gangs and cartels,” he said. “If this does spill over to the confrontations between these gangs, unfortunately, the normal civilian always gets caught in the middle.”

Former President Donald Trump threw a spotlight on TdA during the presidential debate this month when he pointed to a housing complex in Aurora, Colorado, where a viral video showed heavily armed young men walking through the hallways. Residents said they were TdA members.

Local authorities have disputed parts of that account.

Meanwhile, city officials in El Paso, Texas, moved to shut down the Gateway Hotel, a residential hotel, after TdA infiltrated the building. City police said criminal activity exploded once TdA took hold.

An officer said police had responded to hundreds of complaints at the Gateway over the past year. When officers were dispatched, they found drug paraphernalia and trash-strewn hallways with garbage piled high enough to block emergency exits, prostitution, and people with tattoos popular among TdA members.

Mr. Fabbricatore said TdA’s arrival reminds him of the cocaine gang wars of the 1980s, which were fueled by the arrival of tens of thousands of Cubans from the Mariel boat lift.

He noted similarities to TdA, except the U.S. government is making it even easier for the Venezuelans to gain a foothold thanks to the generous support to new arrivals under President Biden’s “parole” programs.

One program offers an iffy legal status to Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans if they secure a sponsor in the U.S. and fly directly into airports, skipping the southern border. Another, open to a broader range of nationalities, welcomes unauthorized migrants with the same iffy legal status as long as they preschedule their arrivals at border crossings.

None of them has a legal visa to enter, yet most are granted parole and given some transition assistance. Work permits are issued to those who want them.

“We are literally setting things up for TdA. We are funding NGO housing for them, we are providing three months of rent. We are providing food benefits. They don’t have to struggle. They can go right to crime,” said Mr. Fabbricatore, who is running as a Republican for a seat in Congress in Colorado.

Sniffing out gang members from among the broader Venezuelan migration is tricky because the U.S. doesn’t have access to data from Venezuela, an adversarial nation. Mr. Sadulski said TdA members often postpone their gang tattoos until after they are in the U.S., making it tough for Customs and Border Protection agents and officers to spot them.

TdA is strategic about where it goes. “TdA will study the state laws, study law enforcement. They find the weakness in the area of operation where they’re at,” Mr. Sadulski said.

The gang is the first from Venezuela to make it on the international scene. Its expansion largely tracks the broader exodus of Venezuelans escaping the calamity of the Maduro regime: in Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and Chile.

More recently, it has gained footholds in the U.S.

Mr. Sadulski said TdA has indications of alignment with the Cartel of the Suns, a drug smuggling operation with ties to the Venezuelan government. Indeed, after the Venezuelan government deployed thousands of security forces to retake the TdA-controlled Tocoron prison last year, experts said it seemed staged and pointed out that the gang’s top leaders escaped.

TdA leader Hector Guerrero Flores, also known as Nino Guerrero, went on the run.

In July, the Treasury Department declared TdA a “deadly criminal threat” and slapped financial sanctions on the group’s assets. The State Department announced a $5 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Mr. Guerrero, $4 million for Yohan Jose Romero and $3 million for Giovanny San Vicente.

“Tren de Aragua leverages its transnational networks to traffic people, especially migrant women and girls, across borders for sex trafficking and debt bondage. When victims seek to escape this exploitation, Tren de Aragua members often kill them and publicize their deaths as a threat to others,” the Treasury Department said.

43
Politics & Religion / George Gilder
« on: September 18, 2024, 05:33:54 PM »


The Need for a New Economics
By George Gilder

Why is it that so many Americans seem to believe that government spending, fueled by debt or taxes, can drive economic growth and wealth creation? Why do they believe that low interest rates, enforced by the Federal Reserve, can somehow spur business and investment? Why do they imagine that money and consumer demand impel the economy forward?

The reasons, I believe, are rooted in an economic confusion between knowledge and power. Many economists believe that growth is impelled by the exercise of power, represented by money creation and by government spending and guarantees. By manipulating the so-called “levers of the economic machine,” government power can enlarge demand, inducing businesses to invest and consumers to spend. This process is seen to generate the demand that fuels economic growth.
These images of the economy of power are part of the very creation story of economics in an era of new machines and sources of energy. The first economic models were explicitly based on the dynamics of the steam engine then impelling the industrial revolution. Isaac Newton’s physical “system of the world” became Adam Smith’s “great machine” of the economy, an equilibrium engine transforming coal and steam into economic growth and progress.

Exploring technology investments over recent decades, however, I found myself preoccupied less with sources of power than with webs of knowledge in a field of study called Information Theory. On one level this theory was merely a science of networks and computers. Its implications, however, would change our deepest concepts of the nature of wealth. It would show that wealth is not money or power or demand. It is essentially the accumulation of knowledge.

Information theory effectively began with Kurt Godel’s demonstration in 1930 that all logical systems, including mathematics, are intrinsically incomplete and depend on axioms that they cannot prove. This epochal finding is often obscured by elaborate explanations of the intricate mathematics he used to prove it. But as John Von Neumann in his audience was first to recognize, Godel’s proof put an end to the idea of the universe, or the economy, as a mechanism. Godel’s proof, as he himself understood, implied the existence of autonomous creation.

Godel’s proof led directly to the invention by Alan Turing of a universal generic computer, a so-called Turing machine. By this abstract conception, which became the foundation for all computer science, Turing showed that no mechanistic computer system could be complete and consistent.  Turing concluded that all logical systems were intrinsically oracular.

Computers could not be Smithian “great machines” or Newtonian “systems of the world.” They inexorably relied upon human programmers or oracles and could not transcend their creators. As Turing wrote, he could not specify what these oracles would do. All he could say was that “they could not be machines.” In a computer, they are programmers. In an economy, they are entrepreneurs.

In 1948 a rambunctiously creative engineer, Claude Shannon, from Bell Labs and MIT, translated Godel’s and Turing’s findings into a set of technical concepts for gauging the capacity of communications channels to bear information.

Shannon resolved that all information is most essentially surprise. Unless messages are unexpected they do not convey new information. An orderly and predictable mechanism, such as a Newtonian system of the world or Smithian great machine, embodies or generates no new information.

Studying information theory for decades in my exploration of technology, I finally found the resolution to the enigmas that currently afflict most economic thought. A capitalist economy is chiefly an information system, not a mechanistic incentive system. Wealth is the accumulation of knowledge. As Thomas Sowell declared in 1971: All economic transactions are exchanges of differential knowledge, which is dispersed in human minds around the globe. Knowledge is processed information, which is gauged by its news or surprise.

Surprise is also a measure of freedom and criterion of creativity. It is gauged by the freedom of choice of the sender of a message, which Shannon termed “entropy.” The more numerous the possible messages that can be sent, the more uncertainty at the other end about what message was sent and thus the more information there is in the actual message when it is received.

In Knowledge and Power, I sum up information theory as the treatment of human communications or creations as transmissions down a channel, whether a wire or the world, in the presence of the power of noise, with the outcome measured by its “news” or surprise, defined as entropy and consummated as knowledge.

Since these communications or creations can be business plans or experiments, information theory supplies the foundation for an economics driven not by equilibrium and order but by surprises of enterprise that yield knowledge and wealth.

Information theory requires that such a process be experimental and its results be falsifiable. The businesses conducting entrepreneurial experiments must be allowed to fail or go bankrupt. Otherwise there is no yield of knowledge and thus no production of wealth. Wealth does not consist in material capital that can be appropriated by the greedy or the government but in learning processes and knowledge creations that can only thrive in freedom.

After all, the Neanderthal in his  cave had all the material resources and physical appetites that we have today. The difference between our own wealth and Stone Age poverty is not an efflorescence of self-interest but the progress of learning, accomplished by entrepreneurs conducting falsifiable experiments of enterprise.
The enabling theory of telecommunications and the internet, information theory offered me a path to a new economics that could place the surprising creations of entrepreneurs and innovators at the very center of the system rather than patching them in from the outside as “exogenous” inputs. It also showed that knowledge is not merely a source of wealth; it is wealth.

Summing up the new economics of information are ten key insights:

1) The economy is not chiefly an incentive system. It is an information system.

2) Information is the opposite of order or equilibrium. Capitalist economies are not equilibrium systems but dynamic domains of entrepreneurial experiment yielding practical and falsifiable knowledge.

3) Material is conserved, as physics declares. Only knowledge accumulates. All economic wealth and progress is based on the expansion of knowledge.

4) Knowledge is centrifugal, dispersed in people’s heads. Economic advance depends on a similar dispersal of the power of capital, overcoming the centripetal forces of government.

5) Creativity, the source of new knowledge, always comes as a surprise to us. If it didn’t, socialism would work. Mimicking physics, economists seek determinism and thus erroneously banish surprise.

6) Interference between the conduit and the contents of a communications system is called noise. Noise makes it impossible to differentiate the signal from the channel and thus reduces the transmission of information and the growth of knowledge.

7) To bear high entropy (surprising) creations takes a low entropy carrier (no surprises) whether the electromagnetic spectrum, guaranteed by the speed of light, or property rights and the rule of law enforced by constitutional government.

😎 Money should be a low entropy carrier for creative ventures. A volatile market of gyrating currencies and grasping governments shrinks the horizons of the economy and reduces it to high frequency trading and arbitrage in a hypertrophy of finance.

9) Wall Street wants volatility for rapid trading, with the downsides protected by government. Main Street and Silicon Valley want monetary stability so they can make long term commitments with the upsides protected by law.

10) GDP growth is fraudulent when it is mostly government spending valued retrospectively at cost and thus shielded from the knowledgeable judgments of consumers oriented toward the future. Whether fueled by debt or seized by taxation, government spending in economic “stimulus” packages necessarily substitutes state power for knowledge and thus destroys information and slows economic growth.

11) Analogous to average temperature in thermodynamics, the real interest rate represents the average returns expected across an economy. Analogous to entropy, profit or loss represent the surprising or unexpected outcomes. Manipulated interest rates obfuscate the signals of real entrepreneurial opportunity and drive the economy toward meaningless trading and arbitrage.

12) Knowledge is the aim of enterprise and the source of wealth. It transcends the motivations of its own pursuit. Separate the knowledge from the power to apply it and the economy fails. 

The information theory of capitalism answers many questions that afflict established economics. No business guaranteed by the government is capitalist. Guarantees destroy knowledge and wealth by eliminating the precondition of falsifiability. Unless entrepreneurial ideas can fail or businesses go bankrupt, they cannot succeed in creating new knowledge and wealth. Epitomized by heavily subsidized and guaranteed leviathans, such as Goldman Sachs, Archer Daniels Midland, Harvard and Fanny Mae, the crisis of economics today is crony statism.

The message of a knowledge economy is optimistic. As Jude Wanniski wrote, “Growth comes not from dollars in people’s pockets but from ideas in their heads.” Capitalism is a noosphere, a domain of mind. A capitalist economy can be transformed as rapidly as human minds and knowledge can change.

As experience after World War II when US government spending dropped 61 percent in two years, in Chile in the 1970s when the number of state companies dropped from over 500 to under 25, in Israel and New Zealand in the 1980s when their economies were massively privatized almost over-night, and in Eastern Europe and China in the 1990s, and even in Sweden and Canada in recent years, economic conditions can change overnight when power is dispersed and the surprises of human creativity are released.

Perhaps the most powerful demonstration that wealth is essentially knowledge came in the rapid post world war II revival of the German and Japanese economies. Nearly devoid of material resources, these countries had undergone the nearly complete destruction of their physical plant and equipment. As revealed by decades of experience with unsuccessful ministrations of foreign aid, the mere transfer of financial and political power is impotent to create wealth without the knowledge and creativity of entrepreneurs.

Information Theory is a foundation for revitalizing all the arts and sciences, from physics and biology to mathematics and philosophy. All are transformed by a recognition that information is not order but disorder. The universe is not a great machine that is inexorably grinding down all human pretenses of uniqueness and free will. It is a domain of creativity in the image of a creator.

In the same way, capitalism is not a system of equilibrium; it is an engine of disruption and invention. All economic growth and human civilization stem from the surprises of creativity and the growth of knowledge in a domain of constitutional order.

The great mathematician Gregory Chaitin, inventor of algorithmic information theory, explains that to capture the surprising information in any social, economic, or biological science requires a new mathematics of creativity imported from the world of computers. He writes: “Life is plastic, creative! How can we build this out of static, eternal, perfect mathematics? We shall use post-modern math, the mathematics that comes after Godel, 1931, and Turing, 1936, open not closed math, the math of creativity…”

Entropy is a measure of surprise, disorder, randomness, noise, disequilibrium, and complexity. It is a measure of freedom of choice. Its economic fruits are creativity and profit. Its opposites are predictability, order, low complexity, determinism, equilibrium, and tyranny.

Predictability and order are not spontaneous and cannot be left to an invisible hand. It takes a low-entropy carrier (no surprises) to bear high-entropy information (full of surprisal). In capitalism, the predictable carriers are the rule of law, the maintenance of order, the defense of property rights, the reliability and restraint of regulation, the transparency of accounts, the stability of money, the discipline and futurity of family life, and a level of taxation commensurate with a modest and predictable role of government. These low entropy carriers bear all our bounties of surprising wealth and progress.

46
Politics & Religion / The Forrest Gump of CIA Paramilitary Activity
« on: September 18, 2024, 04:08:30 PM »
 :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o

https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1835844989336600721

Putting this in the They Shot at Trump Again thread as well, but this deals more with the CIA as a domestic threat to our C'l order and so I place it here as well.

48
Politics & Religion / Trump and Crypto
« on: September 18, 2024, 02:20:27 PM »


https://decrypt.co/249749/donald-trump-launches-world-liberty-financial-project-token-details

Question arises:  It would seem a Harris victory would be REALLY bad for crypto.  What to do?

49
Politics & Religion / Tin foil?
« on: September 18, 2024, 02:15:18 PM »
second

https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/2nd-trump-assassination-attempt-psychological

For the record, I remain confused by the nature of the Azov Battalion.

50
Politics & Religion / GPF: India's northeast borderlands at risk
« on: September 18, 2024, 02:10:07 PM »



September 17, 2024
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India’s Northeastern Borderlands at Risk
Ethnic conflict and upheaval in neighboring countries are a serious constraint on New Delhi’s rise.
By: Kamran Bokhari

Between discontented citizens and disputed borders, India’s northeast has long posed challenges for the government in New Delhi. The area is cut off from the rest of the country except for a narrow strip of land between Nepal and Bangladesh, and it has become even less secure amid India’s deteriorating relations with China, Myanmar’s implosion and, most recently, the collapse of Bangladesh’s regime. Already threatened by instability emanating from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran to its west, the world’s most populous nation is now facing similar pressures from its east which, combined with the remoteness of the the states thereof, will seriously constrain New Delhi’s rise as a global player.

Internal Conflict

Indian Home Minister Amit Shah announced on Sept. 17 that New Delhi is negotiating to resolve an armed conflict between two ethnic groups in the northeastern state of Manipur. The state government, which is led by the country’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, last week imposed a curfew in the Imphal Valley and surrounding districts and shut down public and private educational institutions throughout the state. This was in response to violent student unrest and renewed fighting between the Meitei majority and Kuki minority. At an event marking the first 100 days of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term, Shah said there would be no resolution unless both ethnic groups came to an understanding.

The conflict centers on economic benefits and quotas in jobs and education provided to tribal Kukis. It was triggered by a 2023 court ruling in favor of Meiteis’ push for “tribal” status, which would grant them the right to buy land in the hills and a guaranteed allotment of government jobs. More generally, however, the BJP’s right-wing Hindu nationalism has exacerbated tensions between the predominantly Hindu Meiteis, who control state politics in Manipur, and the largely Christian Kukis inhabiting the hills.

Administrative Regions of India

(click to enlarge)

Since the violence erupted last year, more than 225 people have died, and at least 60,000 have been displaced. But although it might look like a highly localized instance of ethnic strife, India’s central government is taking no chances. If not contained, the conflict in Manipur risks spreading to neighboring states such as Nagaland, Assam and Mizoram, where both Meiteis and Kukis also have significant populations. Adding fuel to the fire, refugees from the civil war in Myanmar are pouring into the hills of Manipur.

An Imploding Myanmar

Indeed, Indian authorities have pointed to the conflicts in Myanmar as a major factor fueling violence in Manipur. The region’s chief minister, Biren Singh, backed by the Meitei majority, has said that Kuki migrants fleeing Myanmar have worsened the situation. He accuses these migrants of engaging in drug trafficking and terrorism, further stoking Meitei fears that the state's demographics are shifting in favor of the Kukis.

Over the past few years, Myanmar’s once powerful military regime has lost control of large areas, with half a dozen rebel groups seizing territory along the borders of India, China, Bangladesh and Thailand. Sagaing, the largest of Myanmar’s three regions bordering India, shares a 250-mile border with Manipur. From the junta's perspective, rebel groups along the Indian border find sanctuary in Manipur and other northeastern states like Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. Manipur is currently deporting thousands who entered the country illegally back to Sagaing.

Administrative Regions of Myanmar

(click to enlarge)

Though the Meitei-Kuki conflict is the most pressing security issue in northeastern India, the region has a history of ethno-nationalist insurgencies. The collapse of central authority in Myanmar thus poses a significant security threat to India because instability could spill over into its northeastern states.

Regime Collapse in Bangladesh

Meanwhile, the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year-old government in Bangladesh could set India back dramatically. Forced out by the military amid mass protests, Hasina's ouster has destabilized the political landscape of the Muslim-majority nation of 178 million. Her Awami League is unlikely to regain power soon, especially after weakening the Bangladesh National Party, its main rival. This vacuum has opened the door for the Jamaat-i-Islami and other Islamist parties, whose grassroots power was instrumental to Hasina’s downfall.

Wary of Islamist influence, the military establishment is expected to delay elections. The current interim government, led by economist and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is likely to give way to a right-of-center coalition of nationalist and Islamist forces, which worries India. The rise of Islamist groups in Bangladesh, mirroring the trend in Pakistan, poses a serious threat tp New Delhi, especially given the simmering tensions between Hindu nationalists and India's 200-million-strong Muslim population.

Regime change in Bangladesh, moreover, gives China an opportunity to enhance its influence. India is already locked in a border standoff with China along their 2,100-mile mountainous frontier. One of the hot spots of the standoff runs along the northern flank of India's northeast region, from Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China as Zangnan or South Tibet) through the tiny Himalayan nation of Bhutan, and down to Sikkim. This belt of territory connects India’s northeast, which borders both Bangladesh and Myanmar, adding to New Delhi's growing security concerns.

This region, positioned between the eastern Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, is a fractious borderland facing growing geopolitical turbulence. Civil war in Myanmar, political upheaval in Bangladesh and escalating tensions with China along India’s northeastern frontier all converge to create a precarious security environment.

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