As always, Simplicius must be read with care. IMHO he is probably on the Russian payroll, and receives Russian intel and talking points.
That said he is also quite intelligent, and provides counterpoint from outside American info silos.
His analysis here of the prospects for civil disorder after the election merits careful consideration:
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The Eerie Calm Before the Storm
Simplicius
Oct 13
Note:
I’ve made a kind of pledge to do roughly three paywalled pieces per month, or one every ten days give or take. However, I’ve realized there are certain topics I’m increasingly hesitant to broach in detail publically due to certain recent developments in the global legal censorship sphere, to be intentionally vague. As such, there are a few things here and there I may paywall not for the usual reason of a scheduled ‘premium’ product for my paid subscribers, but simply to keep off unneeded eyes.
As such, I don’t want my free subscribers to think it a tightening of the yoke or coercion toward paying—there will simply be a few extra paywalled pieces here and there on sensitive topics particularly around sensitive times, as on this current eve of a momentous US election. Not that I think anything I’ve written is particularly sensitive or even remotely controversial, but unfortunately things are the way they are.
Let’s take a moment for a small reflection on the state of things as we enter into the weeds of this election-eve month of October, known for the dark ‘surprises’ it often has in store. In less than a month the world stands to change forever, for better or worse, as what is likely the most momentous election in US history stands to bear its poison fruits.
It feels like the calm before a great storm, and many have remarked on how ‘odd’ it is that even the Democrats do not seem to be overtly panicking despite catastrophic polling of their lead racehorse Kamala Harris. A strange sort of numbness has set in over the nation, perhaps in the form of normalcy bias—in some ways, it does not even feel like an election is imminent, let alone the most portentous one.
Why is that? Partly due to the fact that it’s the most technological election, wherein various instruments of state power have been utilized to create everything from vast blackouts of information to vortical diversions via some inane psyop or another which bleeds through the information space to distract us. Not to mention, our information platforms are more fractured, compartmentalized, and segregated into moated echo-boxes than ever before. Everyone has reached their tolerance limit of hyper-ingesting the propaganda of the other side and has subsequently retreated into their own safer info-abodes.
The big questions are on everyone’s minds: will America descend into civil war or chaos of some form or another? There are a multitude of competing theories:
Kamala “wins” a tight midnight race, a la Biden in 2020—Trump disputes it and hell breaks loose.
Trump wins a controversially close race of his own, and the Democrats unleash some kind of lawfare or outright military coup.
It’s such a close and fraud-riddled race that neither side concedes and no swearing in commences in January, amidst a slowly fracturing state.
There are two other ways to think about it. On one hand, it appears that Republicans have done little to fortify the ‘system’ against the same kinds of fraud widespread in 2020—i.e. vote harvesting, mass mail-in hijinks, total control of the vote count process by regime-aligned forces, which includes the electronic vote counting machines suspected to being compromised. As such, it’s easy to imagine the same scenario repeating again, albeit even more dramatically, given Kamala’s historic unpopularity.
On the other hand, there are some reasons to believe something entirely different will occur. There is no pandemic to truly justify the same levels of mail-in fraud, some states and their governors have wised up to previous tricks, and to top it all off Kamala’s numbers are arguably so disastrous as to simply make it impossible to pull off a convincing 4 a.m. highway robbery the likes of which Biden got away with.
Even the most diehard Democrat supporters must be reaching their limits of sufferance. The migrant crisis has been the first issue to truly evocatively make obvious that something extremely dark and sinister is happening to the country. For a long time, they hid it well in plain sight—but when they ran out of ‘big cities’ like NYC to dissemble the migrants into, they were forced to start dumping them into small towns like Springfield, Ohio, Charleroi, Pennsylvania, Sylacauga, Alabama, Greeley, Colorado, Logansport, Indiana, and countless others, where the unprecedentedly orchestrated invasion became an inescapable albatross.
This is why I personally am leaning toward the conclusion that Trump may actually win this—the fatigue from the country’s precipitous decline has become painfully felt among every demographic group.
However, even if Trump were to win in such unquestionable fashion as to preclude any electoral challenges, the danger would not be over. There are several contingency layers potentially in place to still prevent him from taking office:
1. The sentencing for his trial was recently pushed back to January. There were legitimate talks of him getting real prison time in Rikers Island. As such, if he were to win they could still try to jail him. Recall, he was fully convicted of 34 felony counts—34 felonies; that would certainly entail a lengthy prison sentence.
2. Then there are the lawfare tricks of disqualifying Trump’s electoral votes described by James Rickards:
Even if Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, likely as of now, the fight will not be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves.
If Democrats retake the House of Representatives, then on Jan. 6, 2025, the New Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an “insurrectionist” and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all.
J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1800).
Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.
Trump has 28 days to flip the narrative on Kamala Harris and win the election. If he does, the Democrats have a doomsday plan they will unveil on Jan. 6, 2025, to disqualify Trump.
Like in January 2021, some believe an election ‘certification’ crisis can develop. However it should be noted that Democrats have fortified this loophole since last time when Mike Pence was being called upon to not certify Biden’s victory as presiding officer:
Further, in December 2022, Congress passed bipartisan legislation that amended a 1887 law to make it more difficult to object to the results of a presidential election. The new legislation clarifies that the role of the vice president in certifying the election is “merely ceremonial,” and that they do not have the authority to decide the results of the election. The law now states that the vice president “shall have no power to solely determine, accept, reject, or otherwise adjudicate or resolve disputes” when certifying the election.
The legislation also makes it harder to force a vote for a particular state, with “one-fifth of each chamber” needing to object to certifying the electors instead of just one member of each the House and the Senate. Governors will now have to sign off on one slate of electors to be sent to Congress, countering Trump’s 2020 attempt to send fake slates of electors to Congress. -Source
3. Other dangers include an outright military coup due to the perceived ‘retaliation’ Trump is set to mete out to his political opponents—the same ones who betrayed and tried to destroy him during and after his first term:
On the eve of the election things feel too unsettlingly quiet. It’s as if the Democrats are demonstrating supreme confidence—which is odd given Kamala’s polling numbers—or have ulterior plans waiting to be activated.
A potential for the latter has slowly appeared over the sudden not-so-subtle insinuations concerning Iran this week. Trump himself bizarrely appeared to pin blame on Iran for the attempts on his life:
And now a seemingly orchestrated narrative is being cooked up to lay the groundwork for one easy-to-see set of circumstances:
Others have read the obvious tea leaves:
False flag in the works?
US President Joe Biden has instructed the National Security Council to warn Iranian authorities against plots against former President Donald Trump and former US officials, sources told The Washington Post and Politico.
He reportedly said that Washington would consider any assassination attempts an act of war.
Suddenly Biden is rushing to ‘protect Trump’ from this phantom Iranian threat, when he previously refused not only to lift a finger but even potentially stone-walled Trump’s Secret Service protection.
Read that again:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/11/iran-trump-assassination-plans-00183488He reportedly said that Washington would consider any assassination attempts an act of war.
This is after sitting Congressmember Matt Gaetz revealed that “five hit teams are in the country hunting Trump”, one of them linked to Ukraine:
The potential ‘play’ here should be obvious. The Israeli-controlled deep state can take out Trump under the guise of Iranian “blood vengeance” for Soleimani and others, and voila!—Israel gets its big American-led cowboy war to destroy Iran. It kills several birds with one stone because Trump is removed as candidate, Israel gets its war, and Iran as a threatening entity can be curtailed for a generation or two, or so goes the thought.
This could be the big October ‘surprise’ dialed up to a million and black swan in one as a last-ditch move to prevent Trump from taking office amid internal polling that shows Kamala has no chance, according to many.
Of course even if that were the plan, they’ll still have to get lucky enough to actually catch Trump slipping. Hopefully he’s wise to the moves, but judging by his presumptuous blaming of Iran he nearly appears happy to accept his role as sacrificial lamb to his beloved Eretz Yisrael. There is no greater show of love than sacrifice, after all. In doing so, he could very well fulfill prophecies of being some chosen Messianic figure who brings to bear the long foretold construction of the Third Temple.
Of course, were he to weather all these coming troubles, Trump will inherit a rabidly destabilizing deep state hellbent on taking down the whole country just to thwart him. As such, the final contingency plan relies on unleashing all the economic and social turmoil kept bottled up just for that rainy moment.
The Longshoremen’s strike threatening to cripple the nation was recently postponed until January 15, just five days before the inauguration—coincidence?
It’s also likely that the Democrats and their NGO hirelings have burrowed ‘sleeper cells’ amongst the millions of migrants, spreading them throughout the country to be activated during Trump’s term to sow social chaos and perhaps even outright terrorism of a sort. The gist is that, if he manages to negotiate the coming gauntlet, Trump’s term cannot be allowed to ‘succeed’ in any way, and all manner of economic and social strife and chaos will be sown throughout the land to drown his term in malaise. Most notably the debt and inflation ‘time bomb’ of the video above could be unleashed to crush any chances of Trump’s radical economic reforms.
It’s an understatement to say he’ll have his work cut out for him if he can even make it to the seat and win the perilous game of American thrones.
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As a final summation, the next three months stand to reach a climactic fever pitch, in the global scope of things. Israel is straining its leash, ready to ignite a historic conflagration in the Middle East; Ukraine is on its shakiest grounds, with Zelensky foaming to spark his own nuclear firestorm. All the while the tenuous political threads of the US system could snap once and for all within weeks in another botched election, unleashing incalculable results.
Of course in all these troubled times, there exists some rays of hope, as the boiling-over tensions can potentially resolve long-standing crises into a cooler phase or denouement of some kind. Questions can be answered and conflicts can reach their natural conclusions by next year, a sort of ‘going over the hump’ of a peak crisis period.
In the case of the US election, rather than the eerie silence being a sign of some grand forthcoming Democrat counter-strike, it could merely signal the final succumbing to inevitability. That earlier-mentioned numbness may have presaged a deer-in-headlights moment of acceptance, signifying the total drought of ideas for how to reverse the situation. They’ve done all they could, flooded the nation with millions of illegals and have reached the ends of their natural powers of fraud and skullduggery, now merely resigned to awaiting the outcome in feeble submission.
After all, despite no outward signs of ‘panic’, there have been signs of a kind of frail acceptance and fatigue, for instance in Obama’s recent spiritless ‘pep talk’ to a group of black male Pennsylvania voters in Pittsburgh. He looked defeated and demoralized, at times annoyed, sliding into uncharacteristic urban patois to scold the skeptical-looking ‘brothas’—as he called them—for not showing up enthusiastically for the manufactured diversity candidate.
Feeling blue at Barry’s Black & Blue pity party?
Trump himself has blundered his way through this most uncanny of campaign trails, turning away many of his voters; Nick Fuentes has recently turned completely against Trump, for example, ordering his considerable following to not vote for him. But at the same time, Kamala is a disaster of such historic proportions that it’s difficult to imagine any scale of Trump blunders eclipsing the damage she’s done to her own party.
As such, although the election—if there even is one—will likely be fraught with fraud, I’ve still got Trump edging it out as of now. Unfortunately, the fight will only just begin there, as the Democrats will likely launch into an array of dirty tricks that could threaten to take the entire country down with them.
However, I have hope we’ll get to the other side in one peace.
